2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2768283 29-Aug-2021 09:47

Fred99:

They cite something Doherty Institute stated via twitter: "With optimal public health measures [and no lockdowns], this can be significantly reduced to 2737 infections and 13 deaths". This is for all of Australia, for 6 months.

Plenty of independent researchers in Australia are rubbishing the Doherty report as being unrealistic.

GV27

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#2768285 29-Aug-2021 09:54

tdgeek:

Newshub Live

6:30am - Health expert Des Gorman is reassuring the public as COVID-19 infections rise.

Dr Gorman, a medical professor from the University of Auckland, told Newshub a spike is exactly what's expected.

"The numbers will go up and people shouldn't be alarmed by that, because if there's an infected person then they're going to infect everyone in their household - that one infected person will infect five others so we were always going to see an uptick in cases."

Unfortunately the (again delayed) press release yesterday contained practically no information from which anyone could infer that. Hopefully the 1pm press conference today sheds more light on this, or someone thinks to ask.

I know it's not a huge thing but between this and the dog's breakfast that was the sorting/adding of new LOIs (so many at a time no one could keep track of them being added) I'm starting to think the MOH hasn't taken on board their last talking-to about inadequate comms.

Having said that, we now know we're facing at least four weeks at L4 now but the Govt still hasn't given us details of the extended wage subsidy, so it's hardly a one-off/isolated state of affairs.

Bung

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#2768286 29-Aug-2021 10:00

tdgeek:
I don't quite get this. About half the cases are the Samoan Church festival, which is a pre lockdown event. 70% of the cases now are linked to that, and I imagine most of those caught it at home in lockdown, so how is that infectious in the community, which infers, not helped by lockdown?

That seems plain inaccurate. Based on that I could say that all 429 cases are CT so the lockdown is having no effect at all...

Does the "infectious in the community" refer to the days between the festival and lockdown when those who later tested positive were mixing with more than family. It's potential for cases.

Fred99

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#2768287 29-Aug-2021 10:06

cddt:

Plenty of independent researchers in Australia are rubbishing the Doherty report as being unrealistic.

Part of the problem isn't with the report itself, but with how it's been cherry-picked by non-expert politicians to suit an agenda:

https://theconversation.com/opening-with-70-of-adults-vaccinated-the-doherty-report-predicts-1-5k-deaths-in-6-months-we-need-a-revised-plan-166659

2. How does the national plan stack-up?

The federal government used the Doherty Institute report’s findings as the basis of the “national plan” it put to National Cabinet.

But it glossed over the options, scenarios, and caveats in the Doherty modelling, and assumed the most optimistic testing-tracing-isolation-quarantine scenario: that everything would be rosy if Australia started opening up once 70% of adults (equivalent to only just over half the population) are vaccinated.

ezbee

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#2768289 29-Aug-2021 10:15

The rest of the country is very lucky the case profile is not rich in, batch, and 2nd home owners.
Unless they are silently transmitting in their bubble.
In Aussie I understand there was an exemption for 2nd home owners, so it was perfectly ok to use your 2nd home.

Google knows all... We need more granular data from them. And more up to date.
Their site only has a general report from 23rd :-(
https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-08-23_NZ_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

The Spinoff page with Map of exposure sites is great ( Pity we don't report businesses ).
I think people can relate better to a Graphic Map like this.
I really can't relate to the list of locations as its so hard to see what's near where you circulate.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/27-08-2021/interactive-map-dates-added-exposure-days/

DS248

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#2768292 29-Aug-2021 10:24

TeaLeaf:

... there isnt an option between Albany and Whangarei outside the medical clinics where patients must be enrolled. ...

Not correct. Not requirement to be an enrolled patient at Orewa Medical Centre ito get vaccinated and I suspect the same applies at some other practices. Pharmacies?

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#2768293 29-Aug-2021 10:25

ezbee:

The Spinoff page with Map of exposure sites is great ( Pity we don't report businesses ).
I think people can relate better to a Graphic Map like this.
I really can't relate to the list of locations as its so hard to see what's near where you circulate.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/27-08-2021/interactive-map-dates-added-exposure-days/

This is exactly the same as the MoH map on their locations of interest website (uses the same dataset that the MoH released via Github).

The only difference is that the Spinoff decided to colour code them so you could see new locations added on the day.

kiwiharry

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#2768294 29-Aug-2021 10:27

tdgeek:

Newshub Live

6:30am - Health expert Des Gorman is reassuring the public as COVID-19 infections rise.

Dr Gorman, a medical professor from the University of Auckland, told Newshub a spike is exactly what's expected.

"The numbers will go up and people shouldn't be alarmed by that, because if there's an infected person then they're going to infect everyone in their household - that one infected person will infect five others so we were always going to see an uptick in cases."

Can only agree with Mr Gorman.

My wife works at one on the LOI's. Exposure event was on Sat 14 August. Site wasn't listed/identified until late on Monday 23 Aug so total of 4 of us in the household went into self-isolation. She got tested on Tue 24 Aug. So essentially 10 days of contact with all household members before we knew of her being a potential close contact. So easy to explain why case numbers could still be high for a few more days.

As an aside this is how rest of week went.

First contact from contact tracers was an email late on Thursday 26 Aug to say she'd get a phone call and she got her first call from them on Friday 27 Aug. Advise from them was for her to isolate from rest of family. I questioned is there much point given it is now 13 days since exposure event so if she was positive then rest of household most likely already infected.

She went for a day 14 swab yesterday and thanksfully got a negative result notification last night from that test.

As of this morning, she still doesn't have result of the swab she had done on Tuesday.

Await todays call from contact tracers but hopefully get clearance from self isolation.

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GV27

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#2768303 29-Aug-2021 11:15

From the Stuff Liveblog:

73 essential workers linked to cluster

The Ministry of Health confirmed that around 73 of the 429 cases identified in this cluster are essential workers.

Investigations are ongoing to determine how many of these essential workers were infected after lockdown began.

The spokesperson added that 72 per cent of the cases reported between August 18 and 27 are still unlinked through their household to other cases.

Over the same time frame, 55 per cent of cases were considered to be infectious in the community. "Most of the exposure events created by these cases were prior to Alert Level 4. Does this not make sense to anyone else? I'm thinking the 'still unlinked' but should be 'linked'? Otherwise that stat is kind of terrifying.

tdgeek

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#2768306 29-Aug-2021 11:24

GV27:

Unfortunately the (again delayed) press release yesterday contained practically no information from which anyone could infer that. Hopefully the 1pm press conference today sheds more light on this, or someone thinks to ask.

Infer what? What Gorman stated? No. You cannot infer ANYTHING from the bare numbers we get told

Fred99

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#2768307 29-Aug-2021 11:27

GV27:

Otherwise that stat is kind of terrifying.

It is terrifying.

Probably needs definition as to what they mean by "linked" though. Does it mean waiting for sequencing tests and thus able to be genomically linked, linked by contact tracing of movements, or both? I imagine that if you've got many people in one household, most or all infected, then determining which of the cases was first infected - then determining how is very hard.

As for the high % of essential worker cases, I'm not surprised at all. The demographic concerned are probably very likely to be working in jobs that fit that definition and where WFH isn't an option.

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antonknee

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#2768308 29-Aug-2021 11:29

TeaLeaf: I personally think Jacinda has f..d up yet again with the Vaccine roll out. Im using her name as she always wants the praise when she does something right. In reality she has likely little to do with it. But that is the role of being PM, taking ownership for everything. Anyway, it is absurd them relying on "Patients must be registered" to roll out the vaccine. eg there isnt an option between Albany and Whangarei outside the medical clinics where patients must be enrolled. Accessing the vaccines has been a total shambles for many. Why are they not focussing on getting this obvious cluster in Auckland vaccinated? It feels like the SI is never affected, not to the same extent Auckland has been, which makes sense given half the country is in one city. As for them messing up the Pfizer orders, personally Im not accepting another vaccine. I was trying to access it long before the outbreak when a large percentage of NZ was (and a lot still) not interested in getting the vaccine, So Im not going to accept a possibly less effective Vaccine. Recall some of that stock that people are not bothering/rushing to access and allocate it to Auckland. Its totally outrageous to have people who are in much less risk areas getting Pfizer and because they didnt plan the vaccne roll out correctly, they expect people in Auckland to receive one of the other vaccines. How many Pfizer vaccine doses did NZ receive up to this point? I know some of what I said might be a little off key, but it has been totally bizarre how they handled both the Delta outbreak in Auckland and the vaccinations and their accessibility.

Almost didn't respond this commentary is so far off the mark but here goes:

Disagree Jacinda wants praise for things, agree the PM ultimately takes ownership of everything. Disagree the vaccine rollout has been f'd up "yet again".

You're totally wrong patients need to be registered/enrolled to get the vaccine. Vaccines are available at medical centres, pharmacies, community vaccination centres, and via mobile teams who visit rural areas. This includes the area between Albany and Whangarei.

They absolutely are focusing on getting Auckland vaccinated. What do you think the drive through clinics that have been stood up this week are for? The push to bring on pharmacies? The community centres? It's prudent to up the pace in Auckland, due to higher risk and reward there, but we need the whole country vaccinated - not just Auckland.

You claim Pfizer orders have been messed up - care to source that claim? We're getting regular, large deliveries of Pfizer. Where you say you were "trying to access it" what do you mean? Our rollout is phased by priority and age group, if it's not been your turn yet - it will be in about 2 days' time. There's nothing to say you have to have another vaccine, as we're only rolling out Pfizer at this time, so why even bring that up? Furthermore - the best vaccine is the one you can get. The vaccines approved for use in NZ are all safe and effective.

As of right now, everyone in NZ is getting Pfizer. There is no one in any area expected to get another vaccine - and even if there was, I'll say it again, the best vaccine is the one you can get. The vaccines approved for use in NZ are all safe and effective.

What exactly is totally bizarre about the vaccine rollout/accessibility and the handling of the Delta outbreak? The vaccine rollout has been slower than I would like, but it's very easy to access and free of charge, and has picked up some serious pace in the last two weeks. Our outbreak was handled in line with our plans, and the way it would be handled was made absolutely clear ahead of time. So far, it would appear to have been the right way to handle it based on what we know - so what is so bizarre about that?

tdgeek

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#2768309 29-Aug-2021 11:33

Bung:
tdgeek:

I don't quite get this. About half the cases are the Samoan Church festival, which is a pre lockdown event. 70% of the cases now are linked to that, and I imagine most of those caught it at home in lockdown, so how is that infectious in the community, which infers, not helped by lockdown?

That seems plain inaccurate. Based on that I could say that all 429 cases are CT so the lockdown is having no effect at all...

Does the "infectious in the community" refer to the days between the festival and lockdown when those who later tested positive were mixing with more than family. It's potential for cases.

Yes I agree with that, pre lockdown infections. NOW, they arent relevant as they weren't known then, and since lockdown they are all confined away from the community. So as cases like that grow in all the effected households, and same for other clusters, the numbers rise, but the risk doesnt. The risk is very low in those households, where the risk is, is others getting infected IN the community, essential workers being the main risk, but also flouters.

Potential for cases? Yes, off course but if these household numbers are very high, then the exposures in the community (the real risk) is very low. But we can't see any trend as the sources seem to be secret

GV27

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#2768310 29-Aug-2021 11:36

antonknee:

The vaccine rollout has been slower than I would like, but it's very easy to access and free of charge, and has picked up some serious pace in the last two weeks.

Sort of shutting the stable door stuff though, isn't it, when your country is at Level 4 because it got out into a largely unvaccinated population?

tdgeek

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#2768311 29-Aug-2021 11:36

GV27:

Having said that, we now know we're facing at least four weeks at L4 now but the Govt still hasn't given us details of the extended wage subsidy, so it's hardly a one-off/isolated state of affairs.

SI has no cases (it seems), and we will have been in lockdown for 3 weeks. L3 is basically L4 with KFC. For AKL to get to where we are, that could take an age. At least 4 weeks? More like at least 4 weeks from now, at least. But then again we have no idea of the growth or reduction in true CT

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