2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2768348 29-Aug-2021 13:31

tdgeek:

Only 21 cases from all of the 500 LOI's, and spread from those was "relatively limited" so obviously household.

He also said there were more exposure events from LOIs and not all of them triggered an LOI alert because they were confident they already knew about everyone affected and could contact them.

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#2768355 29-Aug-2021 13:49

Just been reading what's coming in the iOS 15 Health app. I wonder if MoH will offer this ability? (https://www.macrumors.com/guide/ios-15-health-app/)

‌iOS 15‌ supports digital storage of COVID-19 vaccination records. Healthcare providers or states can offer a QR code that ‌iPhone‌ users can scan to upload their vaccination records to the Health app. COVID-19 test results are also supported.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Oblivian

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#2768357 29-Aug-2021 13:53

FineWine:

Just been reading what's coming in the iOS 15 Health app. I wonder if MoH will offer this ability? (https://www.macrumors.com/guide/ios-15-health-app/)

‌iOS 15‌ supports digital storage of COVID-19 vaccination records. Healthcare providers or states can offer a QR code that ‌iPhone‌ users can scan to upload their vaccination records to the Health app. COVID-19 test results are also supported.

Naturally it's a big-player target. Potentially using the same APIs

https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/01/google-update-will-allow-digital-covid-19-vaccination-cards-and-test-results-to-be-stored-on-android-devices/

FineWine

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#2768358 29-Aug-2021 13:57

Oblivian:

FineWine:

Just been reading what's coming in the iOS 15 Health app. I wonder if MoH will offer this ability? (https://www.macrumors.com/guide/ios-15-health-app/)

‌iOS 15‌ supports digital storage of COVID-19 vaccination records. Healthcare providers or states can offer a QR code that ‌iPhone‌ users can scan to upload their vaccination records to the Health app. COVID-19 test results are also supported.

Naturally it's a big-player target. Potentially using the same APIs

https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/01/google-update-will-allow-digital-covid-19-vaccination-cards-and-test-results-to-be-stored-on-android-devices/

GREAT - I love competition 😀

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

heavenlywild

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#2768369 29-Aug-2021 14:17

Looking promising based on recent numbers indicating we are nearly at the peak.

If tomorrow's number is about the same, or even better, lower, then Auckland can possibly return to more freedoms by the end of Sept.

Wait and see.

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#2768371 29-Aug-2021 14:18

The great news from the press conference is that current modeling is showing a reproduction number just below one. Means that level 4 is working, and if the we keep doing the same the outbreak will eventually burn out, even if it will take a very long time.

Hopefully a reducing number of close contacts (due to lock down) from our new cases will allow much more aggressive contact tracing, dropping the R0 to something substantially below one.

The bad news was the 4 cases from transmission within essential workplaces. This is really similar to what happened in the early days of the NSW outbreak. I bet our officials are kicking themselves for not talking learning from NSW 5 or so weeks ago, and putting those who will need to work in level 3 into vaccination group 3.

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#2768376 29-Aug-2021 14:32

Most concerning statistic for me was that only 50% of new cases were family contacts.

That can be looked at several ways, but shows that the assumption by some that most of our new cases are simply family members and that everybody is in isolation is not necessarily correct.

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#2768378 29-Aug-2021 14:35

this is how i think of the situation (note: happy ending)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-dr-richard-webby-well-all-catch-covid-19-eventually/WWNJTM2METF43YWX3VYCCRMOQI/

kyhwana2

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#2768384 29-Aug-2021 14:55

sbiddle:

Most concerning statistic for me was that only 50% of new cases were family contacts.

That can be looked at several ways, but shows that the assumption by some that most of our new cases are simply family members and that everybody is in isolation is not necessarily correct.

Did they specifically say "family members"? As there are lots of people in living situations (flats) where people they're living with wont be family members..

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#2768388 29-Aug-2021 15:09

kyhwana2:

sbiddle:

Most concerning statistic for me was that only 50% of new cases were family contacts.

That can be looked at several ways, but shows that the assumption by some that most of our new cases are simply family members and that everybody is in isolation is not necessarily correct.

Did they specifically say "family members"? As there are lots of people in living situations (flats) where people they're living with wont be family members..

Like a lot of the information we get given, it's not worth much without other data to explain it. One of my favourite sayings is "It's what they don't tell you that is really important". Sometimes it's left out by omission and sometimes by commission.

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tdgeek

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#2768391 29-Aug-2021 15:20

sbiddle:

Most concerning statistic for me was that only 50% of new cases were family contacts.

That can be looked at several ways, but shows that the assumption by some that most of our new cases are simply family members and that everybody is in isolation is not necessarily correct.

Yes, that's an issue. As per my post as I watched it "How can 3/4 of yesterdays cases be contacts infections, when 1/2 of yesterdays cases were household cases. There is an overlap as households are contacts, so where did that extra 1/4 come from? Cross bubble contact?"

So 75% are cases caught from contacts, of which I assume the 50% is family and 25% are other contacts I assume flatmates, etc. So 25% are true CT. Flouters and essential workers I guess.

Over time the infected cents cases will dry up until all contacts of the source contact get infected. Not really important from a spread point of view as they all "should" be locked away in Level 4.

Say 25% or 20 cases today are true CT. Caught, great. That will produce family/flatmate infections, so if the average house has 3.5 people, thats another 70 cases for the near future. But they arent actually a problem, its the new CT that emanated from the caught CT cases, as they are in the wild. More importantly, the true CT cases that have no known links to contacts or LOI's.These are all the the numbers we need each day, so we can see trends. Contact cases go up, fine, true CT goes down, thats good. Dailies can increase and be a win if the households are increasing, but true CT is declining, as the latter is the spread factor

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#2768393 29-Aug-2021 15:27

heavenlywild: Looking promising based on recent numbers indicating we are nearly at the peak.

If tomorrow's number is about the same, or even better, lower, then Auckland can possibly return to more freedoms by the end of Sept.

Wait and see.

If contact caused cases rise faster than true CT cases, thats a daily increase but its actually good news, as the contact caused cases are just irrelevant numbers for spread, spread is the true CT. It could also ago the other way and give false hope to reducing daily numbers. This is why we need

1. Cases from households and contacts, all of whom including the new case are already and have been in Lockdown. How many doesnt matter as there are bred in captivity from known and isolating cases

2. Cases caught from community transmission, and where and how. Need to see that reduce, thats spread.

3. Cases where we dont know where they got it from. A big worry, we need to snap up all their contacts even if we cannot trace how they got it, want to see this reduce.

Oblivian

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#2768402 29-Aug-2021 15:59

Tracked changes addon to chrome works a treat.

Seems the pages are still evolving even after yesterdays edits.

Was a note added yesterday to the top of the page - anthe press asked during Q&A for the PM to say why changes were made (she wasn't aware so would look into)

2:45pm 28 August 2021: We updated this page to clarify the rules for fishing and whitebaiting at Alert Level 4.

But it's been modified again since.

Yesterday:

At Alert Level 4, you can fish for whitebait during the whitebaiting season. Fish locally, stay 2 metres from other river users and do not use motorised vehicles to get to your fishing spot.

You legally must also comply with all current whitebait regulations, including:

only fishing from the banks of rivers or the water’s edge
not entering the water
not using a boat to fish.

Today:

At Alert Level 4, you can fish for whitebait during the whitebaiting season. Fish locally, stay 2 metres from other river users and remember boating is not allowed.

You legally must also comply with all current whitebait regulations, including:

only fishing from the banks of rivers or the water’s edge
not entering the water
not using a boat to fish.

That kinda re-opens it back up again (unless you also consider the keeping it local and no regional travel.)

Level 4 section got some financial and wellbeing support additions. Level3 had wellbeing added.

At least there is a warning on the doing business page "We are reviewing this page in preparation of moving to Alert Level 3."

Batman

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#2768403 29-Aug-2021 16:01

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126218288/covid19-30-out-of-34-hospital-admissions-are-pacific-people

TeaLeaf

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#2768405 29-Aug-2021 16:10

tdgeek:

Unfortunately its not just in this thread, its public, and Im sure many lay people will be feeling that they may as well give up. Less morale, less compliance, its hard for people to function at the required level when their brain has been fed that they are wasting their time.

Yep I agree.

The original replier turned to KBW instead of using some manners and helping. I expect the actual experts on here in virology would be pretty darn low.

My Mrs is a Biologist by trade so I rely on her to interpret a lot of the peer reviews that I don't fully understand.

My neighbours have just gotten vaccinated and they have only been in NZ for 8 months, that does make things very frustrating. I will ask him how that came about.

One thing that would have helped is organising vaccination centres well ahead of time, many of them are in limbo, ironically due to this latest outbreak, The subsequent lock down not allowing them to finish compliance etc. Simple things like that need a kick up the behind. So yes, there needs to be some accountability for the roll out in the Govt, surely.

Personally I feel reasonably ok with the current situation given they will be getting more Biontech vaccines at the end of October, that is correct?

Is there a reason they cannot focus current available doses on getting Auckland vaccinated? otherwise we will be in lockdown for another 5-10 weeks, they will need minimum 3 weeks after the final known case which likely will end up some time around mid October. They definitely need to stop just vaccinating people off the streets and they clearly need to make vaccinations far more accessible. I dont know what some people who are not mobile would be doing with no vaccination centres between Albany and Whangarei (only GPs which they cannot access as not enrolled patients). a 60km each way taxi I suppose.

How many doses did NZ receive so far?

Efficacy seems to be dropping daily for BionTech/Pfizer.

I wish everyone and their families well during the vaccination process :-)

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