2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2771886 4-Sep-2021 07:42

Ge0rge:
Handle9: Build what you like. NZ doesn't have the ICU staff capacity and can not get them.

To be fair, in the time it would take NZ to fart around and decide to build a new hospital, let alone actually build it, you could probably train several generations of ICU staff. Then if we'd only pay them what they are worth...

It's hard to make direct country to country comparison - criteria differ, if you look back to NZ's peak outbreak last year where the infection spread in rest homes, patients didn't get intervention, maybe one or two could have been put in ICU and ventilated and "survived covid" but it would have been cruel. Nobody is getting off a ventilator for covid treatment without long-term / permanent damage adversely impacting on quality of life.

UK has over 1,000 Covid patients on mechanical ventilation at the moment. That's increased from about 150 in June, and is still increasing in parallel with the increasing death rate.

The US - despite ample vaccine availability - recorded >1500 deaths yesterday.

Absolutely everything points to NZ's strategy of elimination and protection via maximum vaccine uptake being the right response for as long as it's possible to maintain - even if there's no hard and fast guarantee that it'll avoid what's happening in the UK and elsewhere.

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#2771894 4-Sep-2021 08:24

Fred99:

Absolutely everything points to NZ's strategy of elimination and protection via maximum vaccine uptake being the right response for as long as it's possible to maintain - even if there's no hard and fast guarantee that it'll avoid what's happening in the UK and elsewhere.

Buying time. The longer we can hold out, which reduces death and long term effects, the more chance there is of a good annual booster being developed. If that occurs we can hook onto that long term. Its been proven here that elimination shields the economy quite well. So we should be winning on health, economy, and hopefully long term.

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#2771896 4-Sep-2021 08:33

Is there a feel for Level 2 being announced this week outside of Auckland? It should be. Add in extra rules such as masks in shops and compulsory scanning would seem a sound way forward.

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#2771897 4-Sep-2021 08:34

Buster:

Fred99:

They also guessed that peak hospitalisation will be in October.

"Lots of you are going to die, but you're a sacrifice I'm willing to make"

I don't in any way follow Australian politics, particularly State, but guess next election Gladys will not be in the frame?

You answered your own question with "I don't follow Australian politics". Australia is defined by politics particularly at state vs federal level.

Gladys still has significant support, and the Liberals as a whole are still very popular in NSW.

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#2771902 4-Sep-2021 08:47

Handle9: If NZ was in lockdown for ~200 days in the last 18 months there would be similar levels of protest.

But there hasn't been has there? Yet a number of people whinge, whine and moan and try and make out that we've never had it so bad. And as Fred99 has already pointed out, in Melbourne they were protesting very early on in the piece anyway.

Fred99

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#2771920 4-Sep-2021 09:07

sbiddle:

Gladys still has significant support, and the Liberals as a whole are still very popular in NSW.

At a national level:

Politics, but I guess the perception of pandemic handling has had a major impact.

Edit to say that if Berejiklian's plan for NSW's (imo premature and probably doomed) plans to exit lockdown fail, Morrison will throw her under a bus.

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Fred99

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#2771922 4-Sep-2021 09:19

tdgeek:

Is there a feel for Level 2 being announced this week outside of Auckland? It should be. Add in extra rules such as masks in shops and compulsory scanning would seem a sound way forward.

The scanning/signing in is at all levels.

My gut feeling is that until the Auckland outbreak is better contained (ie many consecutive days of no cases infectious in the community), then allowing travel between (Level 2) regions is very risky. It incentivises those in L3/4 region to find ways to evade lockdown and travel further - ie jump on a plane rather than sneak out of Auckland to visit the bach. It'd be fine of course if everybody followed the rules, but...

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#2771924 4-Sep-2021 09:21

tdgeek:

Is there a feel for Level 2 being announced this week outside of Auckland? It should be. Add in extra rules such as masks in shops and compulsory scanning would seem a sound way forward.

Definately L2 for the South Island. I'd say 60/40 on the North Island right now - and while I obviously think the L2 move in the North Island will probably happen, the reality is there is still significant risk to the North Island for spread while Auckland still has cases spreading in the community. We all need to be ready to go back to L4 at a moments notice because it's pretty clear that's our strategy now.

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#2771925 4-Sep-2021 09:23

Received this from Qantas last night:

Based on the current vaccination projection rates and the Australian Government's plan for reopening borders, we are preparing for Qantas and Jetstar international flights to resume as follows:

• From mid-December 2021, between Australia and Fiji, Singapore, the United States, Japan, United Kingdom and Canada.*
• From mid-December 2021, between Australia and New Zealand in line with the anticipated restart of the trans-Tasman travel bubble.*
• From mid-February 2022 between Australia and Hong Kong.*
• From April 2022 onwards flights between Australia and cities including Bali, Jakarta, Manila, Bangkok, Phuket, Ho Chi Minh City and Johannesburg.*

tdgeek

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#2771935 4-Sep-2021 09:33

Fred99:

The scanning/signing in is at all levels.

My gut feeling is that until the Auckland outbreak is better contained (ie many consecutive days of no cases infectious in the community), then allowing travel between (Level 2) regions is very risky. It incentivises those in L3/4 region to find ways to evade lockdown and travel further - ie jump on a plane rather than sneak out of Auckland to visit the bach. It'd be fine of course if everybody followed the rules, but...

Ouch. I can see that for the NI, but SI has had no cases for over 300 days, MIQ says 14 days is needed, SI will have had 21 days next week, no cases. If AKL needs many days wroth no cases its hard to see no cases there till at leat 30 Sept, then say many days is mid Oct, then SI could go to L2? And AKL stay in L3 for a further 3 weeks before considering L2?

Fred99

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#2771936 4-Sep-2021 09:34

• From mid-December 2021, between Australia and New Zealand in line with the anticipated restart of the trans-Tasman travel bubble.*

Staggering optimism from the head of the flying division that we'll all be home by Christmas.

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tdgeek

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#2771938 4-Sep-2021 09:36

Fred99:

• From mid-December 2021, between Australia and New Zealand in line with the anticipated restart of the trans-Tasman travel bubble.*

Staggering optimism from the head of the flying division that we'll all be home by Christmas.

Yeah. With their let Delta roam free approach, we will import cases from the bubble, and it will spread here, goodbye Summer.

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#2771996 4-Sep-2021 10:41

Fred99:

• From mid-December 2021, between Australia and New Zealand in line with the anticipated restart of the trans-Tasman travel bubble.*

Staggering optimism from the head of the flying division that we'll all be home by Christmas.

QANTAS is following Aussie PM Morrison's policy (or possibly vice versa?).
On aviation forums I watch, opinion is sharply divided. A lot of NSW and some Victorians are saying it's about time to stop all this Covid malarkey, the unvaccinated will just have to take their chances too bad. On the other side, almost everyone from the other states reckons it's lunacy and their state borders will stay firmly shut. They're a funny mob, Aussies.

As far as trans-Tasman travel goes it's "maate, ya dreamin"

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#2772030 4-Sep-2021 13:05

The issue around changing the rules currently on wearing masks when doing xyz, when outbreaks occur, would it not be possible to just make a blanket rule around masks being compulsory anywhere outside ones bubble? Obviously there has to be exceptions to this for certain work etc.

After the storm this week ended, the next day was dead still and the water flat as. People escaped the house to get outdoors after being confined to the bubble more so by the storm. The number of masks being warn was extremely minimal in my experience and people were crossing paths often on sidewalks, beaches etc. It went from ghost town beach burbs to quite busy, for so early into spring. It has since declined in numbers I have noticed, more spread out in numbers, as a lot of people got their fresh air fix the day after.

Just curious if it is a feasible/practical law change to make compulsory mask wearing, anywhere in public, during times of outbreak?

On2or3wheels

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#2772031 4-Sep-2021 13:05

No country in the world has managed to vaccinate their way out of this so far.

In every country where their plan hinges on this, rates of infection, hospitalisation & death are increasing at great rates. The latest data out of Israel for instance proves that the 70% vax rate that Au is initially targeting for a partial reopening, isn't going to cut it.

You could argue that oh well it's just the unvaccinated that will suffer & it's their fault, but how about children, people that can't take the vaccine, people that do take the vaccine but their body doesn't get immunity.

How about the health workers that have to deal with all these unvaccinated, or everything that even the vaccinated are going to have to give up to protect the system.

I believe the current plan in NZ to stamp it out is still the best option.

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