2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2411255 1-Feb-2020 19:22

Batman:

update from aussie media. definitely an agenda to not cause panic.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/wuhan-coronavirus-unnecessary-panic-experts-say-2020-1?fbclid=IwAR19tIO3Tik1cmenmvnBb36bNosyxMftZ5r3XBSck2rl7R9byrvrBZ6FC6s

How many died with SARS in many many months? 800 or so. How many have died with nCov in a matter of weeks? 1/4 so far, probably 1/3 by end of next week. Probably half by the week after. Its not surprising that no one has died in non China countries, probability tells us that.

Is that article suggesting delete the virus as non news? I guess it is. Its not really news at all?

gzt

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#2411257 1-Feb-2020 19:31

Batman: update from aussie media. definitely an agenda to not cause panic.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/wuhan-coronavirus-unnecessary-panic-experts-say-2020-1?fbclid=IwAR19tIO3Tik1cmenmvnBb36bNosyxMftZ5r3XBSck2rl7R9byrvrBZ6FC6s

This article does not reveal anything like that. The article mentions panic can be counterproductive and not much more. What exactly is your point and how is it useful?

Fred99

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#2411268 1-Feb-2020 20:40

Australia has now locked down travel from China - seems similar to US moves:

No entry if you've been in China over the past 14 days, unless you're an Aus citizen or resident, or have immediate family in Aus.
If you can get in, then you're asked to "self isolate" for a 14 day quarantine period.

They've also issued a "do not travel" advisory for all of China - as have the US.

The new measures was made "to substantially reduce the volume of travellers coming from mainland China".

(FWIW, February is the busiest month for visitors from China to NZ, about 50,000 arrivals, 80% for "holiday")

Fred99

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#2411303 1-Feb-2020 23:30

Some background to factors influencing the US decision for the travel restrictions / 14 day quarantine. From the press briefing by the coronavirus task force:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-members-presidents-coronavirus-task-force/

DR. REDFIELD: Clearly, they’re all isolated and will be for the 14 days. We have done virus isolation, but I want to be clear: The current tests that we developed at CDC is not — we’re not sure of the natural history of how the virus is isolated. Can you isolate it one day, then three days later you can’t? And we are seeing — in the cases that are in the hospital, we’ve seen people who had detectable virus, then they didn’t have detectable virus, and then three days later they had detectable virus.

Q Dr. Fauci, how confident are you in the accuracy of these tests? If somebody is testing negative and then they later test positive, can you have confidence, if you’re testing negative for something, that you don’t have it?

DR. FAUCI: So, you mean — I think the question you ask is really one of the fundamental bases of why this decision was made. If we had an absolutely accurate test that was very sensitive and very specific, then we could just test people and say, “Okay, we’re good to go.”

I want to get back to that broad concept that I mentioned when I made my brief introduction about the unknowns. We don’t know the accuracy of this test. We haven’t done enough — people who came in with negative, then all sudden they were positive. You could have virus in your nasal secretions or you couldn’t and still be infected. I mean, it isn’t like it’s a horrible test, but it is not a test that’s absolute.

I spoke to a reporter the other day, talking about tests. So when you’re talking about HIV, if a person has HIV and I draw their blood, I can tell you 100 percent whether they have HIV or not — 100 percent. That’s not even near where we are with this.

TLDR - on top of the fact that they don't know enough about the virus, the (rRT-PCR) test being used isn't good enough.

With hard evidence there's asymtomatic transmission - thus making airport screening unreliable, combined with the possibility that you could get false negatives from a passenger who did have symptoms, quarantining all travellers from infected areas seems to be the safest solution.

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#2411307 1-Feb-2020 23:47

Fred99: (FWIW, February is the busiest month for visitors from China to NZ, about 50,000 arrivals, 80% for "holiday")

It will not be this year. China government has already stopped a lot if not most in practice and airlines are cancelling flights:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12305050

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#2411309 1-Feb-2020 23:52

It would be a good outcome if airlines were required to install superduper aircon biofilters in all planes. The amount of productivity lost and issues due to flight flu...

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#2411310 2-Feb-2020 00:09

gzt: It would be a good outcome if airlines were required to install superduper aircon biofilters in all planes. The amount of productivity lost and issues due to flight flu...

Yes, this is actually my fear of flying, is getting sick from it. Too many people fly when they knowing have an illness which IMO is so selfish. But who cancel's a flight when their child has a cold or the flue, and could transmit it to other passengers.

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#2411311 2-Feb-2020 00:11

Fred99:

Australia has now locked down travel from China - seems similar to US moves:

Must be getting more tempting for NZ officials to join Australia, USA & Singapore by applying some travel restrictions.

gzt

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#2411313 2-Feb-2020 00:31

Stuff is reporting DG Health Bloomfield saying the issue is under "active reconsideration" and he's signaling further announcements on Sunday:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119206613/no-suspected-coronavirus-in-new-zealand-ministry-of-health-announce

Wonder when we can expect Peter Thiel to fly in? ; ).

vexxxboy

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#2411324 2-Feb-2020 07:59

i would still be more worried about the other coronavirus, the Flu.

The American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that more than 19 million Americans have fallen ill with the flu so far this season, including 180,000 who ended up in the hospital.

About 10,000 Americans have died, including more than 60 children.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2411325 2-Feb-2020 08:10

vexxxboy:

i would still be more worried about the other coronavirus, the Flu.

The American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that more than 19 million Americans have fallen ill with the flu so far this season, including 180,000 who ended up in the hospital.

About 10,000 Americans have died, including more than 60 children.

You don't lock down 50 million people, close borders and restrict air travel because of the 'flu'.

I believe the official numbers are massively under reported, whether its due to a cover up or simply because they can't test fast enough, I don't know, but there's more going on than we realise.

Also, think of the economic impact this is having, already estimated at 60B USD to China. They would not do this to their economy if they weren't worried.

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#2411331 2-Feb-2020 09:16

gzt: It would be a good outcome if airlines were required to install superduper aircon biofilters in all planes. The amount of productivity lost and issues due to flight flu...

Aircraft already use HEPA filters which help alot and dump most the used cabin air outside bringing in fresh air into the cabin at something like 15 time per hour. With this in mind given people still get sick in planes it's the contact you can come into with an infected person that spreads it around, Typically illnesses spread only a couple of rows around a person and via the hands IIRC

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#2411334 2-Feb-2020 09:24

mattwnz:

gzt: It would be a good outcome if airlines were required to install superduper aircon biofilters in all planes. The amount of productivity lost and issues due to flight flu...

Yes, this is actually my fear of flying, is getting sick from it. Too many people fly when they knowing have an illness which IMO is so selfish. But who cancel's a flight when their child has a cold or the flue, and could transmit it to other passengers.

Its not selfish, it is the reality of life and the way the world works. The reality is, if you caught the common cold you can have symptoms and be infectious for weeks. Consider first that it would not be economical for the majority of travelers to cancel or delay their travel. Second, who can afford and is able to take two weeks off work every time they get a cold? Not many, hence why people may take a few days off work but will still probably be infectious before/after that period, and still suffering from it.

Fred99

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#2411337 2-Feb-2020 09:35

MileHighKiwi:

Also, think of the economic impact this is having, already estimated at 60B USD to China.

I read the same figure being bandied around (originating on Bloomberg?). That's only about 0.24% of GDP - which "per day" is about $70 billion. My gut feeling is that it's a huge underestimate.

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#2411339 2-Feb-2020 09:40

And that is just China, They are around 50% of global manufacturing and "Just-In-Time" logistics means the global impact from an extended production slump will be felt around the world. Thankfully CNY means people aren't expecting jack out of China right now but we've now got an extra week added on with the real possibility of more

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