2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2775093 9-Sep-2021 09:30

tdgeek:

frankv:

FTFY. Lots of people travelled from Auckland to the SI in the 2 weeks prior to the latest lockdown. OTOH, I don't understand the relevance of the SI's lockdown timings to Auckland.

As to the SI relevance, I would assume our elimination strategy was nationwide, so on that, if AKL gets no cases at all, every day, for 14 days they would go to L3 for another 7 days

SI's lockdown was in case there was transmission from Auckland/Wellington to the SI. No transmission found, so lockdown levels can reduce.

Auckland's lockdown was due to CT that was accelerating. I'm not an expert, but I expect that there are other criteria for reducing levels than just no known cases .

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#2775098 9-Sep-2021 09:35

Denmark will lift all restrictions September 10

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-great-danes-denmark-claims-it-is-over/7HLR5PZTXTWTHOZTU3QPHW6IWY/

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#2775120 9-Sep-2021 10:12

Interesting times coming up. Going to be interesting to see what happens when get to level when everyone who wants to get vaccinated is vaccinated.

Having spent 2 years eliminating and saying any deaths is too many, what they can actually do re opening borders, masks, distancing, etc.

Probably will come down to if it is a countrywide spread of vaccination numbers or if areas where low rates. Public opinion probably drive it also, if people start to get annoyed if been vaccinated and done everything they been asked to but still locking down.

No doubt what they hope will happen is that the virus somehow gets less contagious, but that could be years and years away.

The other big thing is going to be when other illnesses which have been dormant decide to make a comeback and how what has been done to combat covid affect how they operate. I hope not but they will want to get their averages back up.

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#2775121 9-Sep-2021 10:14

Fred99:

Oh please... Something new is learned every day.

It's a moving target. Not changing plans would be dumb.

"Something new is learned every day" except Delta has been raging for months overseas and our reopening plans were recently announced.

They shouldn't require wholesale retooling for a variant that was popping off months before the announcement was actually made.

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#2775126 9-Sep-2021 10:20

GV27:

Fred99:

Oh please... Something new is learned every day.

It's a moving target. Not changing plans would be dumb.

"Something new is learned every day" except Delta has been raging for months overseas and our reopening plans were recently announced.

They shouldn't require wholesale retooling for a variant that was popping off months before the announcement was actually made.

Makes a bit of a fool of those who supported the bubbles.

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#2775128 9-Sep-2021 10:22

tdgeek:

Makes a bit of a fool of those who supported the bubbles.

Yea, one thing the government has done well is being super clear around expectations around the Trans-Tasman bubble quite early on.

Although why we thought MIQ at home was going to be sufficient given that wasn't good enough for the alpha variant in 2020 I have no idea, and especially since that was the whole reason MIQ was set up in the first place.

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#2775130 9-Sep-2021 10:26

GV27:

Fred99:

Oh please... Something new is learned every day.

It's a moving target. Not changing plans would be dumb.

"Something new is learned every day" except Delta has been raging for months overseas and our reopening plans were recently announced.

They shouldn't require wholesale retooling for a variant that was popping off months before the announcement was actually made.

Something new is learned every day - and that may require "constant retooling".

Look across the Tasman to NSW in particular, and see how not retooling promptly enough worked. "We don't do lockdowns" evolved into endless lockdowns, failing, seeding other states and NZ with Delta, and their plans to "open up" are getting revised on a daily basis anyway, changing or reversing decisions on timeline as well as lockdown conditions.

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#2775133 9-Sep-2021 10:30

GV27:Although why we thought MIQ at home was going to be sufficient given that wasn't good enough for the alpha variant in 2020 I have no idea, and especially since that was the whole reason MIQ was set up in the first place.

Are you referring to leaks from MIQ?

GV27

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#2775142 9-Sep-2021 10:36

tdgeek:
GV27:Although why we thought MIQ at home was going to be sufficient given that wasn't good enough for the alpha variant in 2020 I have no idea, and especially since that was the whole reason MIQ was set up in the first place.
Are you referring to leaks from MIQ?

Pre-MIQ in March/April 2020, we had 'isolate at home' after returning from overseas. I'll note on prominent long-covid activist tweeted about how she was going to do her MIQ at her batch, before it turned out they actually had Covid.

I'm not sure why we thought that would be feasible with Delta.

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#2775150 9-Sep-2021 10:45

GV27:

Pre-MIQ in March/April 2020, we had 'isolate at home' after returning from overseas. I'll note on prominent long-covid activist tweeted about how she was going to do her MIQ at her batch, before it turned out they actually had Covid.

I'm not sure why we thought that would be feasible with Delta.

Its based on vaccinations, which massively reduces illness and death. Perhaps due to the failures of a few other countries that have gone/going down that track its seen as more of an issue? Denmark is doing the same now, that will be worth a look, a more normal country than the UK and Israel

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#2775182 9-Sep-2021 11:18

This is what lockdown level 4 means to the locals in my area - time to go fishing.

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#2775183 9-Sep-2021 11:20

Speaking of based on vaccination figures.

Bit pre-emptive running with this.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-delta-outbreak-how-many-cases-needing-hospital-care-were-vaccinated/WEI6LAG2HG3KXM4BNK6W2BFM64/

Not exactly at broad enough range of dataset. Given we're still in the middle of rolling it out. Not exactly like the US/UK where the door has been flung open with a larger population that are, so ones not vs are is a little more comparable.

That means 84 out of the 88 cases in hospital - or 95 per cent - had not had a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine more than two weeks before testing positive.

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#2775187 9-Sep-2021 11:24

duckDecoy:

This is what lockdown level 4 means to the locals in my area - time to go fishing.

That door was eventually opened up.

Fishing

You can fish from a wharf or the shore, but do not cast off the rocks or fish from a boat. Boating is not allowed. Keep it local — go to your nearest fishing spot, not your favourite fishing spot.

Use your own take on what's 'local'. I know of people who seemed to exploit that, and drove to southern canals because it was the 'nearest' salmon spot.

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#2775193 9-Sep-2021 11:34

Oblivian:

Speaking of based on vaccination figures.

Bit pre-emptive running with this.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-delta-outbreak-how-many-cases-needing-hospital-care-were-vaccinated/WEI6LAG2HG3KXM4BNK6W2BFM64/

Not exactly at broad enough range of dataset. Given we're still in the middle of rolling it out. Not exactly like the US/UK where the door has been flung open with a larger population that are, so ones not vs are is a little more comparable.

That means 84 out of the 88 cases in hospital - or 95 per cent - had not had a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine more than two weeks before testing positive.

Yes, it is meaningless BS unless adjusted for demographic (age and ethnicity). And on the vaccination rates two weeks before testing positive.

And then should note that NZ vaccinations are typically recent whereas evidence from overseas indicates considerably waning effectiveness beyond 4-6 months.

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#2775197 9-Sep-2021 11:42

DS248:

Yes, it is meaningless BS unless adjusted for demographic (age and ethnicity). And on the vaccination rates two weeks before testing positive.

And then should note that NZ vaccinations are typically recent whereas evidence from overseas indicates considerably waning effectiveness beyond 4-6 months.

More than just age and ethnicity, should be more factors taken into account but seeing as we are now in the age where if 1 person is offended then we can't say or do anything that won't be taken into account.

You notice that when the experts talk they never mention things that may cause them grief even though they know full well it is a factor.

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