2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2778214 14-Sep-2021 13:15

Feel it's a bit much to put it back on Aucklanders for not being vaccinated when the earliest Group 4 could book in some cases for their first was November.

tdgeek

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#2778216 14-Sep-2021 13:16

ajobbins: Bloomfield mentioned case numbers and that all are 'linked', but did not mention that 8 of the 15 were infectious in the community - the most important number to watch at this stage of the outbreak

And IIRC all 15 are household contacts, which infers no problem. But who goes to New World, the dairy, the gas station?

Batman

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#2778217 14-Sep-2021 13:18

ajobbins: Bloomfield mentioned case numbers and that all are 'linked', but did not mention that 8 of the 15 were infectious in the community - the most important number to watch at this stage of the outbreak

i'd like to know how you can have linked cases infectious in community.

serious question.

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#2778219 14-Sep-2021 13:23

ajobbins:

1) Maintain elimination long term - with no tolerance for cases or deaths. Note the word tolerance is important here as it relates to the elimination strategy . It means there most likely wont be zero, but that all actions will be taken to quash outbreaks as they happen.

2) Vaccinate as much of the population as possible to avoid lockdowns in the future, and use a risk based approach to ease border restrictions.

That sounds like a good strategy, in theory, but the two don't reconcile. If you want to maintain #1, Delta gives you no ability to ease border restrictions, even at absolute maximum vaccination rates (The concept of herd immunity essentially doesn't apply to Delta).

correct. but you have to change the message slowly. people have short term memory. if you announce a drastic change you get called out. introduce new things bit by bit it's less noticable.

it's likely we'd like to do (1) but we also want to do (2) so we'll play it by ear and have both options moving forward and do what one needs to do when the time comes. it will be what it will be.

KrazyKid

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#2778221 14-Sep-2021 13:23

I assume linked infectious in the community means they know the chain on how the person got infected, but that person was out and about before they got tested.

I assume a family member tested positive, and when they tested the other people in the household they were also positive and had been out and about (for a walk, or maybe to the dairy?).

tdgeek

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#2778223 14-Sep-2021 13:25

Batman:

ajobbins: Bloomfield mentioned case numbers and that all are 'linked', but did not mention that 8 of the 15 were infectious in the community - the most important number to watch at this stage of the outbreak

i'd like to know how you can have linked cases infectious in community.

serious question.

I follow the rules. I caught it and are a positive test. Tell the MoH that here are the LOI's Ive been to, aha, that where you caught it, so I'm linked. But I also go to supermarket, dairy, gas station so I'im also infectious in the community

Thats how I see it, 2 overlapping Venn Diagrams

tdgeek

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#2778226 14-Sep-2021 13:37

"Elimination is the best strategy and we will continue to use that, until vaccination is complete" from PM today at the presser

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wellygary

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#2778305 14-Sep-2021 15:53

Reasonably happy to see it drop under 20 today, but it really takes a few more days to re-establish a good down trend,

Auckland has 6 days to go hard on testing and vaxxing,

But the number we really need to decline is the LoI... its been stuck at 120-140 for about the last week, and it really needs to start coming down much lower (meaning that the new cases we find are not mingling- much)

ezbee

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#2778349 14-Sep-2021 17:23

Woman refusing mask at supermarket returns with men, assaults guard - police
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/451475/woman-refusing-mask-at-supermarket-returns-with-men-assaults-guard-police

""
She then punched the guard, and the two men chased the guard with weapons, police said.

They said a woman, 26, had been arrested and charged with failing to wear a face covering, and a patched Black Power member - a man, 33 - was charged with assault with a weapon.
""
Livin the life of the most liveable city in South Auckland. Why we can't have nice things.

Another reason not to be soft on gangs.

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#2778361 14-Sep-2021 17:51

covid also affecting school holidays? i can see pros and cons depending if you are parent or teacher!

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/minister-awaiting-advice-possible-school-holiday-move

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#2778364 14-Sep-2021 17:55

vaccine push (Akl) is happening https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/15-new-community-cases-all-known-links

tdgeek

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#2778374 14-Sep-2021 18:11

wellygary:

Reasonably happy to see it drop under 20 today, but it really takes a few more days to re-establish a good down trend,

Auckland has 6 days to go hard on testing and vaxxing,

But the number we really need to decline is the LoI... its been stuck at 120-140 for about the last week, and it really needs to start coming down much lower (meaning that the new cases we find are not mingling- much)

I really want the infectious in the community to drop. Now, that should be easy as its Level 4, but asymptomatic seems to be common, that's the problem variable. You can't blame compliant citizens when they go to the supermarket or dairy or gas station. That's an unavoidable risk. But everyone needs to hunker down otherwise, then stats will save the day

Oblivian

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#2778377 14-Sep-2021 18:13

Or just... not hunker and have a funeral anyway. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/lockdown-breach-more-than-50-seen-lining-auckland-street-for-tangi/2XW7OBTRYAIB2EUR5B2UBHFJ7Q/

tdgeek

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#2778380 14-Sep-2021 18:15

GV27:

Feel it's a bit much to put it back on Aucklanders for not being vaccinated when the earliest Group 4 could book in some cases for their first was November.

I'm not seeing that here. Or on the news, not that I place much trust in the "news".

For what its worth, AKL has more MIQ per capita than the rest of us. And its suffered. But I haven't yet seen the blame game.

tdgeek

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#2778384 14-Sep-2021 18:19

Oblivian:

Or just... not hunker and have a funeral anyway. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/lockdown-breach-more-than-50-seen-lining-auckland-street-for-tangi/2XW7OBTRYAIB2EUR5B2UBHFJ7Q/

Ouch. Thats sorta reminds me of Fiji. Small area, easy to control, but the social aspect has overruled the Covid aspect.

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