2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2785027 27-Sep-2021 15:49

I did some very rough numbers yesterday.

UK Covid deaths per day seem to be about 180 or so over the last week. (Probably averages a little lower to)

UK vaccination rate is 89% first dose, 82% second dose (of eligible 16+ years) according to the government figures.
(That is 67% of the entire UK population with 2 doses currently)

In a linear scaling of population to allow for our smaller size that is just under 14 deaths a day in NZ.

Doesn't sound much but that is over extra 5000 deaths a year from Covid.
We seem to have about 33,000 deaths a year normally so this is a huge jump!

And more scarily the UK has ready had waves killing some of the more vulnerable people. We have avoided this so I'd expect our death rate could be higher.

You would think that Sean Hendy's modelling is probably in the ball-park based on these numbers.

Oblivian

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#2785032 27-Sep-2021 16:01

Todays release will be no doubt touched on shortly.

4Pm presser with the Home Isolation details and RSE arrangement

And we've all noticed it. Leading the silly questions race from the onset last year and causing many a good head shake the way they tussle.

But this is a good giggle

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/jessica-then-tova-prime-minister-jacinda-arderns-curious-1pm-news-conference-habit/L2E3C4RRGA47JAZD3KPJT4YZLQ/

Oblivian

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#2785035 27-Sep-2021 16:03

KrazyKid:

I did some very rough numbers yesterday.

UK Covid deaths per day seem to be about 180 or so over the last week. (Probably averages a little lower to)

UK vaccination rate is 89% first dose, 82% second dose (of eligible 16+ years) according to the government figures.
(That is 67% of the entire UK population with 2 doses currently)

In a linear scaling of population to allow for our smaller size that is just under 14 deaths a day in NZ.

Doesn't sound much but that is over extra 5000 deaths a year from Covid.
We seem to have about 33,000 deaths a year normally so this is a huge jump!

Hendys modelling suggested 5000-7000?/yr. So it's on point with the warning that it needs to be higher to battle that. Despite people saying they are way off. But even at closer to 90 I think the figure was around 550/yr.

mattwnz

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#2785038 27-Sep-2021 16:10

KrazyKid:

I did some very rough numbers yesterday.

UK Covid deaths per day seem to be about 180 or so over the last week. (Probably averages a little lower to)

UK vaccination rate is 89% first dose, 82% second dose (of eligible 16+ years) according to the government figures.
(That is 67% of the entire UK population with 2 doses currently)

In a linear scaling of population to allow for our smaller size that is just under 14 deaths a day in NZ.

Doesn't sound much but that is over extra 5000 deaths a year from Covid.
We seem to have about 33,000 deaths a year normally so this is a huge jump!

One thing about the UK is that many people have already have covid. My cousin who is a teacher and the rest of their family have all had it. I watched something on the BBC saying that something like 50% of all school children have had it. So they already would have some natural immunity from that which is helping their numbers. NZ is very different because we essentially have no natural immunity, a s we have had so few cases. So I don't think we can compare UKs number with what may happen in NZ. But even 200 cases a day in the UK is a lot of deaths, but they have a better health system and ICU capacity than NZ. But they still are still wearing masks in places and doing lots of testing etc. So it is far from the life that NZ has been living prior to our lockdown.

Batman

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#2785049 27-Sep-2021 16:24

Buster:

People (babies) born in NZ are given an NHI number.

Young people that emigrate to NZ with their family get an NHI number the first time they visit a Doctor.

12 to 15 year olds have some form of School ID.

Hopefully all vaccinated including casual walk-ins will get connected to an existing database for something.

I guess as long as we can account for 90% properly will be good enough.

Might end up with a relatively small list of vaccinated people that can't be connected to anything.

that's why i made sure i took selfies on both days

wellygary

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#2785050 27-Sep-2021 16:30

Buster:

Might end up with a relatively small list of vaccinated people that can't be connected to anything.

Apparently new NHIs are generated if they cannot match to an existing one...

If you get as COVID Jab its pretty much guaranteed to be matched to an NHI...

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#2785053 27-Sep-2021 16:35

NSW / Victoria plans

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-in-australia-nsw-victoria-prepare-to-ease-lockdown-restrictions/WYD7SV2FPCTQLSLU6ZCJV4RJQU/

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#2785054 27-Sep-2021 16:39

Oblivian:

And for the facepalm take away from it.. (it starts off sounding like an 'this sounds like a plan' quote - door to door tests AND jabs)

"In some cases, public health staff have been sending mobile testing units to areas where there have previously been cases and encouraging residents to get tested at their home,"

"If you do receive a knock at your door, we'd strongly encourage you to take up the opportunity to get tested and if haven't already been vaccinated, to do so with one of the registered vaccinators on-board the mobile unit."

For these suburbs, there were 705 tests processed yesterday. This number included asymptomatic and symptomatic tests.

Health officials asked people to get tested: "If you are a contact, have visited a location of interest at the specific dates and times, are connected to a suburb of interest or have any symptoms of Covid-19 – even those with very mild symptoms need to get tested and isolate at home while waiting for test results".

they are absolutely doing the right thing.

these people don't have expensive iphones and sit around all day reading the internet and following MOH advice to get vaccinated get tested as well as the gazillion other guidelines.

so they've finally after all these time they've figured out they have to go to them to give the vaccine and get the tests.

Batman

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#2785067 27-Sep-2021 16:41

from stuff

Woman at Waitākere police cells tests positive, not all staff were wearing PPE

A woman who was in custody at Auckland’s Waitākere police cells has tested positive for Covid-19, but not all staff who came into contact with her were wearing full personal protective equipment (PPE), police say.

Waitematā district operations manager inspector Jason Edwards said the district custody unit at Henderson station had been temporarily closed after a person processed through the cells on September 23 tested positive for the virus.

She was asymptomatic and went through a health screening test before she was taken into the custody unit.

ajobbins

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#2785076 27-Sep-2021 16:51

mattwnz:

NZ is very different because we essentially have no natural immunity

The other issue NZ may have, which will be a bigger problem the longer you are cut off from the world, is there will be a number of other things going around that no one will have immunity to. This may or may not be a big deal - but it's certainly a risk that when you open up, more than just covid is coming in and causing a problem.

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#2785080 27-Sep-2021 16:57

just reading and discovered something interesting (whether factually accurate or not)

China has vaccinated 2.09 Billion doses and 889 Million people are fully vaccinated as of 2 days ago

https://www.google.com/search?q=china+vaccination

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DS248

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#2785085 27-Sep-2021 17:04

ajobbins:

mattwnz:

NZ is very different because we essentially have no natural immunity

The other issue NZ may have, which will be a bigger problem the longer you are cut off from the world, is there will be a number of other things going around that no one will have immunity to. This may or may not be a big deal - but it's certainly a risk that when you open up, more than just covid is coming in and causing a problem.

We have already been hit by an unprecedented outbreak of RSV ex Australia after the TT bubble started. (Ultimately saved by the Aug lockdown?)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/125733161/rsv-outbreak-very-sharp-spike-in-cases-dwarfs-infections-from-last-six-years

mattwnz

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#2785089 27-Sep-2021 17:12

ajobbins:

mattwnz:

NZ is very different because we essentially have no natural immunity

The other issue NZ may have, which will be a bigger problem the longer you are cut off from the world, is there will be a number of other things going around that no one will have immunity to. This may or may not be a big deal - but it's certainly a risk that when you open up, more than just covid is coming in and causing a problem.

Absolutely. That all then comes back to one of the main reasons we went for elimination, and that was our lack of health capacity, as our health system runs at peak much of the time. I hope they are factoring all this in.

I do wonder if the UK could be in a better position, with having quite a high number of people who have had already had covid, where those people may not now be as likely to re-contract it for some time, and therefore breaking transmission of it for a period of time. Whereas the vaccine apparently isn't all that effective at stopping vaccinated people getting it and spreading it, but it is better at preventing severe illness and keeping people out of hospital. Essentially Oz will be in a similar position to NZ, so maybe we are watching what is happening over there.

mattwnz

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#2785096 27-Sep-2021 17:18

DS248:

ajobbins:

The other issue NZ may have, which will be a bigger problem the longer you are cut off from the world, is there will be a number of other things going around that no one will have immunity to. This may or may not be a big deal - but it's certainly a risk that when you open up, more than just covid is coming in and causing a problem.

We have already been hit by an unprecedented outbreak of RSV ex Australia after the TT bubble started. (Ultimately saved by the Aug lockdown?)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/125733161/rsv-outbreak-very-sharp-spike-in-cases-dwarfs-infections-from-last-six-years

And apparently it overwhelmed the hospitals in places.

mattwnz

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#2785102 27-Sep-2021 17:27

Batman:

from stuff

Woman at Waitākere police cells tests positive, not all staff were wearing PPE
A woman who was in custody at Auckland’s Waitākere police cells has tested positive for Covid-19, but not all staff who came into contact with her were wearing full personal protective equipment (PPE), police say. Waitematā district operations manager inspector Jason Edwards said the district custody unit at Henderson station had been temporarily closed after a person processed through the cells on September 23 tested positive for the virus.
She was asymptomatic and went through a health screening test before she was taken into the custody unit.

This is a concern IMO. Although the PM says there is no 'widespread' community transmission, there seems to be undetected spread in parts of the Auckland community occurring.

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