2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2785750 28-Sep-2021 16:33

mattwnz:

It may not end well, the virus will find any hole it can. Did they say that people need to take level 3 with them for 14 days? Eg not visit cafes etc.

It won't matter, many will be going into close living environments....Halls and Flats...

It doesn't really matter what they do outside.. household contacts could just explode...

mattwnz

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#2785758 28-Sep-2021 16:58

Hope that the media will ask questions about this tomorrow at the standup.

wellygary

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#2785825 28-Sep-2021 17:16

mattwnz: Hope that the media will ask questions about this tomorrow at the standup.

The only real hope is that they are a lot more confidence that they have encircled the clusters than they are letting on ,

but a possible case in point is that there have been no notified locations of interest so far today and only one yesterday

tdgeek

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#2785840 28-Sep-2021 18:40

wellygary:

This has been my thoughts for a while, you simply cant remove the border until you have a run of zero cases, the first thing thousands of people are going to do is flee Auckland to go on holiday etc ( School holidays are at the end of this week)

BUT, I am seriously worried they have just let the horse out allowing Students to return from Auckland to the rest of the country ( with a 72 hr test) ...

We all know the 3 day window can allow quite significant contact, and we see positive MIQ cases all the time that have had a 72hr negative departure test..

I agree, but I feel the health response and the public needs are disjointed. Hence I predict a Level 2 for AKL to be announced on Monday, but a tighter Level 2. Satisfies the public need but not the correct need.

They need to identify the suburbs of concern, lock them down at Level 5 and test and vaccinate them all.

tdgeek

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#2785842 28-Sep-2021 18:42

Scott3:

ajobbins: Of yesterday's cases, 6 in isolation and, 6 not isolated but only 5 of the 6 had exposure events.

Not big numbers, but still showing the contact tracers can't get ahead of exposures.

Again a clash with what was in the ministry of health's press release the prior day:

"Cases epidemiologically linked: Ten of today’s 12 cases. All 12 have been in isolation at home or in an MIQ."

Hopefully it was just people that tested positive and are deemed to be contagious for a little bit of time prior to going into isolation. Rather than people who have been not isolating when they were ment to.

Im not a scientist but I get sick of "Cases epidemiologically linked"

They are all linked to Case One. Does it matter if I caught it off my neighbour 15 houses down the street? No. How and why did I catch it is the issue

tdgeek

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#2785844 28-Sep-2021 18:44

mattwnz:

wellygary:

BUT, I am seriously worried they have just let the horse out allowing Students to return from Auckland to the rest of the country ( with a 72 hr test) ...

We all know the 3 day window can allow quite significant contact, and we see positive MIQ cases all the time that have had a 72hr negative departure test..

It may not end well, the virus will find any hole it can. Did they say that people need to take level 3 with them for 14 days? Eg not visit cafes etc.

The Tauranga positive waste water testing is a concern too, that there could be cases in this area.

Not sure on that but it won't happen. Now, it might happen for most of them, but most of them aren't causing this tail.

Handle9

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#2785846 28-Sep-2021 19:05

tdgeek:

wellygary:

This has been my thoughts for a while, you simply cant remove the border until you have a run of zero cases, the first thing thousands of people are going to do is flee Auckland to go on holiday etc ( School holidays are at the end of this week)

BUT, I am seriously worried they have just let the horse out allowing Students to return from Auckland to the rest of the country ( with a 72 hr test) ...

We all know the 3 day window can allow quite significant contact, and we see positive MIQ cases all the time that have had a 72hr negative departure test..

I agree, but I feel the health response and the public needs are disjointed. Hence I predict a Level 2 for AKL to be announced on Monday, but a tighter Level 2. Satisfies the public need but not the correct need.

They need to identify the suburbs of concern, lock them down at Level 5 and test and vaccinate them all.

Who are you going to get to do that? It's impossible.

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tdgeek

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#2785858 28-Sep-2021 19:36

Handle9:

Who are you going to get to do that? It's impossible.

Not impossible. They are already mobile testing the suburbs of concern. And picking up symptomatic people who didn't bother to get tested. Given tat Auckland isnt infected in every second street, if they are mobile testing and they did 700+ in one day, and IIRC the suburbs of chief concern is about 7000, they can do that all day, testing and vaccinating. Relying on test please doesnt work. They may well have tonally on Boris's herd immunity, so lets test and vaccinate in one hit. Street by street in these suburbs of interest. Or go Level 2 next week and be dumb with it.

Fred99

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#2785863 28-Sep-2021 19:58

Handle9:

tdgeek:

They need to identify the suburbs of concern, lock them down at Level 5 and test and vaccinate them all.

Who are you going to get to do that? It's impossible.

Yeah I agree that it's impossible on grounds of medical ethics, but regardless of that, if it was even suggested that Mangere or Mt Wellington should be locked down to "level 5" while Mission Bay and Remuera party hard in oyster bars, apart from being futile it'd probably cause riots.

tdgeek

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#2785865 28-Sep-2021 20:03

Fred99:

Yeah I agree that it's impossible on grounds of medical ethics, but regardless of that, if it was even suggested that Mangere or Mt Wellington should be locked down to "level 5" while Mission Bay and Remuera party hard in oyster bars, apart from being futile it'd probably cause riots.

Ok, we all know a lockdown wont happen although "its not off the table" But the issues in some suburbs needs to be recognised and dealt with. We are already mobile testing them, that can include vaccinating at the same time which is efficient.

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#2785868 28-Sep-2021 20:16

Fred99:

Yeah I agree that it's impossible on grounds of medical ethics, but regardless of that, if it was even suggested that Mangere or Mt Wellington should be locked down to "level 5" while Mission Bay and Remuera party hard in oyster bars, apart from being futile it'd probably cause riots.

But it's quite OK for Wellsford and GBI to be locked down while Hamilton and Te Puke party on?

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#2785920 28-Sep-2021 20:46

mattwnz:

It may not end well, the virus will find any hole it can.

Have I missed something, or has it grown wings suddenly since last year.

The virus doesn't find a hole. It naturally wants cells to replicate. Cells that are in humans. Humans may find a hole.

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#2785923 28-Sep-2021 21:00

watching the news, Tauranga wastewater test - sample that was positive was taken last Thursday. another sample taken now awaiting results

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#2785925 28-Sep-2021 21:12

it seems restriction tactic is working in nsw.

governor said if 90% vaccinated no restrictions no passport.

just checked and 85+% over 16 have had their 1st dose.

Handle9

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#2785927 28-Sep-2021 21:21

Fred99:

Handle9:

Who are you going to get to do that? It's impossible.

Yeah I agree that it's impossible on grounds of medical ethics, but regardless of that, if it was even suggested that Mangere or Mt Wellington should be locked down to "level 5" while Mission Bay and Remuera party hard in oyster bars, apart from being futile it'd probably cause riots.

That and if someone refuses to test or vaccinate then what? I think you're right that it would end in unrest.

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