2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2786238 29-Sep-2021 13:13

Uh oh.

Looks like NZ is going to meet endemic covid head on in coming weeks. I expect that can only be stopped with L4 with high compliance, which seems highly unlikely to happen.

I wonder what, if not already being done, might be implemented to delay spread out of Auckland region.

Batman

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#2786241 29-Sep-2021 13:17

as I said, the low cases we were seeing were likely the effect of level 4, there is a lag between level 3 and settling onto a new number (whatever that number is) - and it's likely that only now level 3 is showing the new state of play, but need a few days to confirm this trend, plus we need to look at whether it seeds elsewhere in the country.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-todays-cases-infected-person-at-auckland-mall-two-days-ago/4MUA6MR5XYQYGO7OODO3PCV4EI/

Rikkitic

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#2786244 29-Sep-2021 13:20

heavenlywild:

I don't think MoH and co have this "under control" as they like to keep saying.

Delta is hard to beat, especially if the gangs are involved.

That is an opinion, which you are fully entitled to. But it doesn't add anything substantive to the discussion.

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DS248

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#2786245 29-Sep-2021 13:20

@cshwone:

tdgeek:

Singapore

Has a very high rate of fully vaccinated people, but cases are rapidly rising. But. "With 82% of the population fully vaccinated, about 98% of the coronavirus cases in the past four weeks had no or mild symptoms, it said in a report a day earlier."

Health system is stretched as many are seeking hospital care when its not necessary. If the 98% of vaccinated are getting none or mild symptoms, does that mean that long Covid is also much improved? If you are fully vaccinated and you get a no symptom or mild symptom infection, is that a nice boost to the immune system?

And that is really what it is going to come down to for us in the future, being vaccinated meaning little or no impact on that vaccinated persons overall health. The stress for us will be those that are not vaccinated and the impact they have on the health services and the follow on impact on the rest of us when, or if, we suddenly require urgent hospital care.

If only.

Barely "little or no impact" on the overall health of the 35 fully vaccinated people who have died so far in the current NSW outbreak (11-12% of deaths)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-29/why-a-small-number-of-fully-vaccinated-people-have-died-of-covid/100497770

Scott3

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#2786252 29-Sep-2021 13:28

Press release:

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/45-community-cases-covid-19-more-44500-vaccines-doses-given-yesterday-15000-tests-processed"

"Cases infectious in the community: Four (50%) of yesterday’s cases have exposure events
Cases in isolation throughout the period they were infectious: Four (50 %) of yesterday’s cases"

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-gang-community-part-of-outbreak-ministry-of-health-confirms/E6H7AAIJCD3Y5U3UPX3CRWHAEU/

"The highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19 is "seated" in Auckland's gang communities and among rough sleepers, the Ministry of Health has told MPs today."

JPNZ:

"There are 45 new Covid cases in the community today, including 12 unlinked 'mystery' cases.

Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said it was the largest number of cases we'd had in some time.

A total of 33 are household or close contacts of existing cases and weren't infectious in community.

"In some sense they were expected," Bloomfield said.

Twelves were cases were unlinked but for six of those, some links were visible"

It seems that it takes 7 days for the impact of lowering alert levels to be seen in the number's...

Perhaps we should wait another couple of days to confirm that today is not an outlier, Then change out approach to reflect the cat being out of the bag...

We need to decide if we want to keep the south island covid-19 free by putting in place domestic MIQ for southbound travel (I think we should).
It needs to be a panic to get the remaining 22% of the eligible population their first dose. We need to throw epic resources at this, and start announcing various sticks to encourage uptake (can't actually implement a lot of them until our proof of vaccination app is ready.

heavenlywild

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#2786254 29-Sep-2021 13:35

Rikkitic:

heavenlywild:

I don't think MoH and co have this "under control" as they like to keep saying.

Delta is hard to beat, especially if the gangs are involved.

That is an opinion, which you are fully entitled to. But it doesn't add anything substantive to the discussion.

Welcome to discussion boards. Opinion is what makes this work.

I can already see level 3 businesses being very lax on following the rules, whether it is scanning in or wearing masks. Sure they have the signage but it seems like it's there for show.

Level 2 or level 3 next week will mean little to most as people get lockdown fatigue.

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openmedia

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#2786260 29-Sep-2021 13:42

JPNZ:

"There are 45 new Covid cases in the community today, including 12 unlinked 'mystery' cases.

Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said it was the largest number of cases we'd had in some time.

A total of 33 are household or close contacts of existing cases and weren't infectious in community.

"In some sense they were expected," Bloomfield said.

Twelves were cases were unlinked but for six of those, some links were visible"

Time for a Level 5 for Auckland

Close ALL the shops
No one leaves home - excluding truly essential workers - doctors/nurses/police etc
House by house covid testing ALL of Auckland
Remove all homeless from the streets and isolate/test them

Give it 5-6 weeks and we'll have this sorted..

No?..

Go on suggest an approach that will result in ZERO deaths, as personally Zero is the only acceptable number.

Generally known online as OpenMedia, now working for Red Hat APAC as a Technology Evangelist and Portfolio Architect. Still playing with MythTV and digital media on the side.

DS248

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#2786261 29-Sep-2021 13:43

QLD tightens restrictions following four new mystery cases yesterday.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-29/qld-coronavirus-one-new-community-case/100499528

Batman

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#2786263 29-Sep-2021 13:50

openmedia:

Time for a Level 5 for Auckland

Close ALL the shops
No one leaves home - excluding truly essential workers - doctors/nurses/police etc
House by house covid testing ALL of Auckland
Remove all homeless from the streets and isolate/test them
Give it 5-6 weeks and we'll have this sorted..

No?..

Go on suggest an approach that will result in ZERO deaths, as personally Zero is the only acceptable number.

hmm ... you forgot to get the army in to round up the gangs and put them in 5 star hotels along with the homeless.

not to mention possible mass spreader events - i mean protests ....

but yes that's one way of going about it.

heavenlywild

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#2786314 29-Sep-2021 13:52

openmedia:

JPNZ:

"There are 45 new Covid cases in the community today, including 12 unlinked 'mystery' cases.

Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said it was the largest number of cases we'd had in some time.

A total of 33 are household or close contacts of existing cases and weren't infectious in community.

"In some sense they were expected," Bloomfield said.

Twelves were cases were unlinked but for six of those, some links were visible"

Time for a Level 5 for Auckland

Close ALL the shops
No one leaves home - excluding truly essential workers - doctors/nurses/police etc
House by house covid testing ALL of Auckland
Remove all homeless from the streets and isolate/test them
Give it 5-6 weeks and we'll have this sorted..

No?..

Go on suggest an approach that will result in ZERO deaths, as personally Zero is the only acceptable number.

Says who? Zero is the only acceptable number? Then stop driving, stop exercising, stop hiking, stop smoking, stop drinking.

Zero is an unrealistic number.

Many may be OK with your approach because they can work from home and still earn a living but don't forget how many people can't.

openmedia

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#2786319 29-Sep-2021 13:56

heavenlywild:

Says who? Zero is the only acceptable number? Then stop driving, stop exercising, stop hiking, stop smoking, stop drinking.

Zero is an unrealistic number.

Many may be OK with your approach because they can work from home and still earn a living but don't forget how many people can't.

What is an acceptable level of road deaths - Zero

What is an acceptable level of Influenza deaths - Zero

etc.

Generally known online as OpenMedia, now working for Red Hat APAC as a Technology Evangelist and Portfolio Architect. Still playing with MythTV and digital media on the side.

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DS248

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#2786321 29-Sep-2021 13:57

Not so notable achievement ...

Seven day average vaccination rate has now dropped below where it was the day before the current outbreak 😞.

Hopefully a slight uptick after today?

Edit: Oops, vaccination rate, not testing!

heavenlywild

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#2786325 29-Sep-2021 14:00

openmedia:

heavenlywild:

Says who? Zero is the only acceptable number? Then stop driving, stop exercising, stop hiking, stop smoking, stop drinking.

Zero is an unrealistic number.

Many may be OK with your approach because they can work from home and still earn a living but don't forget how many people can't.

What is an acceptable level of road deaths - Zero

What is an acceptable level of Influenza deaths - Zero

etc.

And you just shot yourself in the foot.

You need to bring yourself back to reality. Acceptable does not mean realistic. Sure, zero deaths is acceptable for COVID but doesn't mean we stop life and business trying to achieve the unachievable.

We don't stop driving do we?

tdgeek

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#2786326 29-Sep-2021 14:02

heavenlywild:

I don't think MoH and co have this "under control" as they like to keep saying.

Delta is hard to beat, especially if the gangs are involved.

It "appeared" to be trending down. But 45 cases, most of which are households intermingling. Delta is easier to beat than some households. If this household stuff keeps happening, it will be a LONG tail. Households go to supermarkets and dairies too.

heavenlywild

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#2786327 29-Sep-2021 14:02

DS248:

Not so notable achievement ...

Seven day average vaccination rate has now dropped below where it was the day before the current outbreak 😞.

Hopefully a slight uptick after today?

Edit: Oops, vaccination rate, not testing!

People need a plan and timelines. I will bet that if the PM said if and when we get to 90% then life will go back to normal, then people will come out of the woodwork. There's always the "what's in it for me" despite the obvious answer being "life".

If we are getting jabbed but still without a plan, locked up, high daily numbers, then of course you won't get those difficult people out to get jabbed. They will think what's the point?

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