2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2786329 29-Sep-2021 14:04

tdgeek:

heavenlywild:

I don't think MoH and co have this "under control" as they like to keep saying.

Delta is hard to beat, especially if the gangs are involved.

It "appeared" to be trending down. But 45 cases, most of which are households intermingling. Delta is easier to beat than some households. If this household stuff keeps happening, it will be a LONG tail. Households go to supermarkets and dairies too.

The lower numbers were not a true reflection. There's likely to be wide community transmission. You don't go from single digits to 45 suddenly if there wasn't a significant case of community transmission.

We haven't been testing enough and of the right people.

tdgeek

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#2786330 29-Sep-2021 14:04

Batman:

as I said, the low cases we were seeing were likely the effect of level 4, there is a lag between level 3 and settling onto a new number (whatever that number is) - and it's likely that only now level 3 is showing the new state of play, but need a few days to confirm this trend, plus we need to look at whether it seeds elsewhere in the country.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-todays-cases-infected-person-at-auckland-mall-two-days-ago/4MUA6MR5XYQYGO7OODO3PCV4EI/

You are right, but this is about non complying households, and they have large families. And they go shopping. You cannot expect 100% compliance but some people are letting 1.7 million others, down.

openmedia

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#2786331 29-Sep-2021 14:05

heavenlywild:

openmedia:

What is an acceptable level of road deaths - Zero

What is an acceptable level of Influenza deaths - Zero

etc.

And you just shot yourself in the foot.

You need to bring yourself back to reality. Acceptable does not mean realistic. Sure, zero deaths is acceptable for COVID but doesn't mean we stop life and business trying to achieve the unachievable.

We don't stop driving do we?

Acceptable - able to be tolerated or allowed.

Generally known online as OpenMedia, now working for Red Hat APAC as a Technology Evangelist and Portfolio Architect. Still playing with MythTV and digital media on the side.

mattwnz

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#2786333 29-Sep-2021 14:06

Batman:
as I said, the low cases we were seeing were likely the effect of level 4, there is a lag between level 3 and settling onto a new number (whatever that number is) - and it's likely that only now level 3 is showing the new state of play, but need a few days to confirm this trend, plus we need to look at whether it seeds elsewhere in the country.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-todays-cases-infected-person-at-auckland-mall-two-days-ago/4MUA6MR5XYQYGO7OODO3PCV4EI/

They knew it was a mistake to move out of level 4 too early and not concentrate on more strict measures in the problem suburbs. It isn't yet too late to eliminate, and other parts of the world have eliminated delta.

openmedia

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#2786334 29-Sep-2021 14:06

heavenlywild:

tdgeek:

It "appeared" to be trending down. But 45 cases, most of which are households intermingling. Delta is easier to beat than some households. If this household stuff keeps happening, it will be a LONG tail. Households go to supermarkets and dairies too.

The lower numbers were not a true reflection. There's likely to be wide community transmission. You don't go from single digits to 45 suddenly if there wasn't a significant case of community transmission.

We haven't been testing enough and of the right people.

Or if you have some very large households.

Generally known online as OpenMedia, now working for Red Hat APAC as a Technology Evangelist and Portfolio Architect. Still playing with MythTV and digital media on the side.

heavenlywild

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#2786335 29-Sep-2021 14:08

You have shot yourself in the foot again.

OK, so based on your logic, we don't accept COVID deaths but it will happen. So what's the point of locking us down then? I am not saying lockdowns are not worthwhile but you don't apply the same logic to driving. We should all stop driving too if we accept long term lockdowns.

Rikkitic

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#2786336 29-Sep-2021 14:08

heavenlywild:

Welcome to discussion boards. Opinion is what makes this work.

Opinion that advances discussion is what makes discussion boards work. Opinion that just regurgitates the obvious or goes bla bla I think this without making any effort to explain why you think it does not contribute much.

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heavenlywild

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#2786337 29-Sep-2021 14:09

openmedia:

Or if you have some very large households.

R=6 so just think about how many others are out there that haven't been tested.

heavenlywild

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#2786338 29-Sep-2021 14:10

Rikkitic:

heavenlywild:

Welcome to discussion boards. Opinion is what makes this work.

Opinion that advances discussion is what makes discussion boards work. Opinion that just regurgitates the obvious or goes bla bla I think this without making any effort to explain why you think it does not contribute much.

Nothing is obvious - if obvious was obvious to all, we would have 100% vaccination rates.

There is no commonsense either.

Welcome tor reality. This is why this outbreak is hard to contain.

Batman

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#2786339 29-Sep-2021 14:11

mattwnz:

other parts of the world have eliminated delta.

i'm not aware that any part of the world has managed to actually eliminate delta.

places have come close, as have we, but ...

MikeB4

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#2786342 29-Sep-2021 14:17

@heavenlywild you seem to be forgetting that is we abandon elimination the large increase in deaths will not just be from Covid 19. Our hospitals will be overwhelmed and deaths from heart attack, stokes, accidents, asthma, births, flu and on and on will rise.

Second point what is with the agro in your posts?

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#2786344 29-Sep-2021 14:18

Press release:

New Zealand’s border workers have stepped up to help protect their whānau and fellow Kiwis, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today.

As of this morning over 98% of the active border workforce have received at least one dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, and 93% are fully vaccinated.

“This greater protection at our border gives us confidence that those people who are going to work and doing their jobs, aren’t going to get sick or die from COVID-19 if we see another international ship present with the virus in our waters, or have an incursion at an airport or MIQ facility,” Chris Hipkins said.

“It also reduces the possibility of transmission on to others in the community.

“Over the past 10 weeks, vaccination rates for active border workers across all sectors have climbed. This is testament to the hard work of the air and maritime sectors, employers, unions, DHBs, resident experts and border workers themselves for their work in this space.”

Total workers have climbed to 98% from just 84% having had one dose in July. For port workers, there has been a huge jump from just 55% in July, to 95% today.

“All Government employed workers are now vaccinated, and this week’s deadline brings private employers in as well. This is a significant step towards protecting New Zealanders from COVID-19 now and into the future.

“This is increasingly important as we look to how we reopen to the world. The border will continue to be our first defence against COVID-19 and the people who work there must be protected.

“Anyone who has been uncertain about getting vaccinated has one more day to ask any outstanding questions and get that first dose. You will then have 35 days to get your second one following the deadline.

“I encourage you to do this. It will keep you safe. I am extremely pleased and relieved this order comes into effect this week,” Chris Hipkins said.

mattwnz

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#2786349 29-Sep-2021 14:26

Batman:

mattwnz:

other parts of the world have eliminated delta.

i'm not aware that any part of the world has managed to actually eliminate delta.

places have come close, as have we, but ...

Professor Baker was discussing this on the 12pm news today and mentioned there were other parts of the world that have eliminated it. He thinks more needs to be done. I am aware that South Australia and Queensland have. They may have had some cases since. Also parts of China could have. The rest of NZ has also eliminated it after getting cases travelling in. But it is not going to stay out of the rest of NZ for very long at this rate.

I just wonder what their modeling is showing, in terms of case number growth now, as the R0 value is surely over 1 now. Whether we will be at 100 a day in a week? The frustrating thing is that it was so predictable.

GV27

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#2786350 29-Sep-2021 14:27

They've done really well to get that port worker number up, that July number was an embarrassment.

Rikkitic

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#2786352 29-Sep-2021 14:31

MikeB4:

Second point what is with the agro in your posts?

I suspect that individual is on the younger side. That often seems to go with chest-thumping and a disregard for the concerns of older and more vulnerable people.

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