2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2786354 29-Sep-2021 14:33

heavenlywild:

The lower numbers were not a true reflection. There's likely to be wide community transmission. You don't go from single digits to 45 suddenly if there wasn't a significant case of community transmission.

We haven't been testing enough and of the right people.

What Ive been suggesting for a while now. Some people are not complying, or testing. A Blind situation as I said yesterday. Given that the right people decide not to get a test, I guess they need to widen the mobile testing that ha already begun.

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#2786365 29-Sep-2021 14:37

tdgeek:

What Ive been suggesting for a while now. Some people are not complying, or testing. A Blind situation as I said yesterday. Given that the right people decide not to get a test, I guess they need to widen the mobile testing that ha already begun.

i read on the herald that quite a number of people had declined a test from the mobile unit

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#2786366 29-Sep-2021 14:38

Will we find out tomorrow if these cases today emanate from gangs? If so, then at least that means its not raging in the community. If its mainly intermingling households, at least they can trace them and continue the mobile testing in the problem areas. Gang related contacts probably span the whole city

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#2786369 29-Sep-2021 14:39

Batman:

i read on the herald that quite a number of people had declined a test from the mobile unit

Wow, any idea why? if they are found to be positive do they get shipped to Jetpark?

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#2786370 29-Sep-2021 14:43

tdgeek:

Batman:

i read on the herald that quite a number of people had declined a test from the mobile unit

Wow, any idea why? if they are found to be positive do they get shipped to Jetpark?

the article didn't say why other than they cannot force anyone to be tested.

some people said they had already been tested, but not all.

heavenlywild

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#2786376 29-Sep-2021 14:47

Get the saliva tests going - more people will be happy to take those than the nasal swabs.

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mattwnz

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#2786377 29-Sep-2021 14:50

heavenlywild:

Get the saliva tests going - more people will be happy to take those than the nasal swabs.

Apparently they are not as accurate yet. But National were suggesting this too, but said they need to be done in addition to the current test, and not as a replacement.

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mattwnz

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#2786380 29-Sep-2021 14:54

tdgeek:

Will we find out tomorrow if these cases today emanate from gangs? If so, then at least that means its not raging in the community. If its mainly intermingling households, at least they can trace them and continue the mobile testing in the problem areas. Gang related contacts probably span the whole city

I understand there were over 10 today that they couldn't link, which is a very big number. I just feel like a lot of the hard work over the last 5 weeks is level 4 is being undone, and may result in even longer in level 3. They have had to go up levels before after going down a level too quickly, and they said yesterday that putting different parts of Auckland into higher levels was not off the table. They seem to be relying on vaccination, but the numbers for that have hit a wall, and there is so much distrust for in in certain segments. Professor Baker was saying today that something needs to be done and it isn't too late yet. I feel like they have lost direction. I haven't seen any modeling of where they expect case numbers to go, and they are not being transparent enough IMO .

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#2786382 29-Sep-2021 14:55

Taiwan has shown that controllable days of zero and single digit cases is possible.
Technical definition of elimination a continuing goal. Last 7 days 1,0,1,0,0,0,1
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4299637

""
The sole local case reported on Tuesday, case No. 16,315, is a man in his 50s from Taipei who underwent a self-paid coronavirus test due to work requirements on Sept. 27.
""
Still 6-10 cases a day flying in despite strict test and fly. So its Test Fly, isolate, Test, Test, Test.
Home isolation is an option but you isolate from your family too, and have a totally invasive app, and checks.
Phone battery goes flat you get a bang on the door.
They canned people using airB&B as cycling lots of people through a flat with unmonitored cleaning etc was too risky.

I expect the key is that contact tracing uses all the tools in the shed including cellular tracking data, which we don't.
Being a country under constant threat of invasion, or at least spy silliness, even if you are a free and open democracy.

If we were willing to give up some data points in a pandemic to have more overall freedom ?

Their levels are different than ours .
Nightclubs, bars, and such closed but other activities opening up
Taiwan loosens COVID restrictions at cinemas, theaters, sports venues | Taiwan News | 2021-09-28 13:01:00

heavenlywild

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#2786385 29-Sep-2021 14:57

mattwnz:

heavenlywild:

Get the saliva tests going - more people will be happy to take those than the nasal swabs.

Apparently they are not as accurate yet. But National were suggesting this too, but said they need to be done in addition to the current test, and not as a replacement.

Agree that it isn't as accurate but on the plus side at least more people would be willing to get tested :)

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#2786390 29-Sep-2021 15:02

Batman:

mattwnz:

other parts of the world have eliminated delta.

i'm not aware that any part of the world has managed to actually eliminate delta.

places have come close, as have we, but ...

Not looked far?

Apart from QLD (& SA, but a very small outbreak) that you will be aware of, try Hong Kong ("A total of 48 cases were reported in Hong Kong in the past 14 days, all of which are imported")

https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2021/09/20210927/20210927_142037_974.html?type=category&name=covid19&tl=t

Plus Taiwan, with a population of 23.5m, now down to 3 local cases in the last 7 days (https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/List/7tUXjTBf6paRvrhEl-mrPg?page=1).

Plus likely other other jurisdictions (will leave you to do the searching).

QLD does keep getting re-seeded every few days from across the border. And Taiwan, typically 5 - 10+ cases a day at its border.

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#2786392 29-Sep-2021 15:06

There are legitimate reason why someone would decline a random test if they have not been at a place of interest. I am unable to have test for the foreseeable future due to a misadventure with tests. The inside of my nose was damaged resulting in a significant bleed followed by an infection, my compromised immune system did not help. My nose is now swollen on the inside. Saliva testing should be available.

DS248

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#2786394 29-Sep-2021 15:07

DS248:

Batman:

... i'm not aware that any part of the world has managed to actually eliminate delta.

places have come close, as have we, but ...

... Hong Kong ("A total of 48 cases were reported in Hong Kong in the past 14 days, all of which are imported")

https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2021/09/20210927/20210927_142037_974.html?type=category&name=covid19&tl=t

Of course HK does not pussyfoot around (from above link)

"In view of two preliminary positive imported cases who had stayed in Hong Kong during the incubation period, 13 specified places are included in a compulsory testing notice. Those who have completed a COVID-19 vaccination course are also required to undergo the test."

mattwnz

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#2786395 29-Sep-2021 15:12

DS248:

QLD does keep getting re-seeded every few days from across the border. And Taiwan, typically 5 - 10+ cases a day at its border.

My concern is the rest of NZ is at increasing risk of the increased cases in Auckland. Especially as students are now allowed to move out of Auckland into halls of residence to mix with potentially lots of other people. IMO they left level 4 too early before all CT was ring fenced, they didn't implement stricter lockdowns in suburbs where the cases were appearing, and provide additional financial support to those people who are needing it.

tdgeek

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#2786398 29-Sep-2021 15:17

mattwnz:

I understand there were over 10 today that they couldn't link, which is a very big number. I just feel like a lot of the hard work over the last 5 weeks is level 4 is being undone, and may result in even longer in level 3. They have had to go up levels before after going down a level too quickly, and they said yesterday that putting different parts of Auckland into higher levels was not off the table. They seem to be relying on vaccination, but the numbers for that have hit a wall, and there is so much distrust for in in certain segments. Professor Baker was saying today that something needs to be done and it isn't too late yet. I feel like they have lost direction. I haven't seen any modeling of where they expect case numbers to go, and they are not being transparent enough IMO .

I dont see how they have lost direction. Is that because the cases have spiked? You need people to comply, and to test, and do get vaccinated. Enough of the public are not cooperating with one or two, or all three of those. When enough of the populous act as its Level 1, this is what happens.

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