2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2786403 29-Sep-2021 15:28

MikeB4:

There are legitimate reason why someone would decline a random test if they have not been at a place of interest. I am unable to have test for the foreseeable future due to a misadventure with tests. The inside of my nose was damaged resulting in a significant bleed followed by an infection, my compromised immune system did not help. My nose is now swollen on the inside. Saliva testing should be available.

i watch on TV and every time they show a nasal swab it's done wrong. well i don't know if they are actually wrong but the standard applied is for the swab to be 90 degrees to the face and it goes to the back of the head.

every time i see it on TV the swab is pointing to the brain/eyeballs and that's not the standard

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmvcm2010260

https://www.ottawapublichealth.ca/en/professionals-and-partners/how-to-collect-a-nasopharyngeal--np--swab.aspx

andrew75

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#2786405 29-Sep-2021 15:34

heavenlywild:

You have shot yourself in the foot again.

OK, so based on your logic, we don't accept COVID deaths but it will happen. So what's the point of locking us down then? I am not saying lockdowns are not worthwhile but you don't apply the same logic to driving. We should all stop driving too if we accept long term lockdowns.

My feeling is the cat is out of the bag now and we are not going to be able to eliminate it this time. Even if we could it is impossible to keep it out indefinitely we would just find ourselves in the same position again. And again. And again.

Vaccination is the only way forward. The point of the lock down is to prevent the health system being overwhelmed, which it absolutely would be unless we achieve very high vaccination rates. An overwhelmed health system means compromised care for everyone vaccinated or non vaccinated, covid related or non covid related - broken bones heart attacks appendicitis cancer, all the stuff the hospitals are already full of with no covid. The lock down buys us time to increase the vaccination rates ad much as possible. What the necessary level is I don't know but it is surely much higher than where we are at the moment.

The driving analogy doesn't work. It doesn't take into account the nature of infectivity of the disease. If you want to think along those lines, imagine everyone in NZ driving F1 cars on public roads with no speed limits. Lots of crashes (cases), lots of serious crashes (hospitalizations and ICU admission) and lots of death, and importantly a most of the population crashing over a short time frame overwhelming the health system. There are only two ways I can think of to prevent this in a non immune population - vaccination and slowing transmission through lockdowns.

GV27

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#2786407 29-Sep-2021 15:42

Yikes at today's number, double yikes at the unlinked cases.

Ironically may have the perverse effect of making Aucklanders just chuck in the towel if we start heading in the wrong direction.

Locking down individual parts of Auckland at L5 won't work, not if you like having stock on your supermarket shelves or your courier/mail services still operating - if you do that then the rest of Auckland won't be able to function no matter what level they're at.

openmedia

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#2786408 29-Sep-2021 15:46

GV27:

Yikes at today's number, double yikes at the unlinked cases.

Ironically may have the perverse effect of making Aucklanders just chuck in the towel if we start heading in the wrong direction.

Locking down individual parts of Auckland at L5 won't work, not if you like having stock on your supermarket shelves or your courier/mail services still operating - if you do that then the rest of Auckland won't be able to function no matter what level they're at.

L5 = no shops and no mail and no deliveries = no one outside of their property.

Generally known online as OpenMedia, now working for Red Hat APAC as a Technology Evangelist and Portfolio Architect. Still playing with MythTV and digital media on the side.

Batman

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#2786410 29-Sep-2021 15:50

DS248:

Not looked far?

Apart from QLD (& SA, but a very small outbreak) that you will be aware of, try Hong Kong ("A total of 48 cases were reported in Hong Kong in the past 14 days, all of which are imported")

https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2021/09/20210927/20210927_142037_974.html?type=category&name=covid19&tl=t

no kidding!

"mandatory hotel quarantines of as long as 21 days for inbound travelers, hospitalization of everyone infected, and isolation of close contacts in government facilities."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-28/hong-kong-s-hands-are-tied-on-covid-rules-top-adviser-says

Handle9

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#2786412 29-Sep-2021 15:51

openmedia:
GV27:

Yikes at today's number, double yikes at the unlinked cases.

Ironically may have the perverse effect of making Aucklanders just chuck in the towel if we start heading in the wrong direction.

Locking down individual parts of Auckland at L5 won't work, not if you like having stock on your supermarket shelves or your courier/mail services still operating - if you do that then the rest of Auckland won't be able to function no matter what level they're at.

L5 = no shops and no mail and no deliveries = no one outside of their property.

Excellent. You don’t need to worry about Covid when you have no food.

Will you let them eat cake?

kiwikurt

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#2786425 29-Sep-2021 16:24

Rikkitic:
MikeB4:

Second point what is with the agro in your posts?

I suspect that individual is on the younger side. That often seems to go with chest-thumping and a disregard for the concerns of older and more vulnerable people.

I guess we all have our prejudices but as a mid-elder millennial and someone who works with a broad range of ages that assumption does not follow at all. I've certainly seen disregard for the concerns of older and more vulnerable people from shall we say those on the non-younger side.

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mattwnz

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#2786427 29-Sep-2021 16:29

openmedia:
GV27:

Yikes at today's number, double yikes at the unlinked cases.

Ironically may have the perverse effect of making Aucklanders just chuck in the towel if we start heading in the wrong direction.

Locking down individual parts of Auckland at L5 won't work, not if you like having stock on your supermarket shelves or your courier/mail services still operating - if you do that then the rest of Auckland won't be able to function no matter what level they're at.

L5 = no shops and no mail and no deliveries = no one outside of their property.

But it wouldn't mean this. It probably would mean that no one would be allowed to go to work, and they need to stay home. There had been no reports of people catching covid this time from supermarket shopping or from getting things delivered contactlessly. This is why is level 4.5 works be best to be used for suburbs. People get paid a helicopter payment to cover lost income etc. They were discussing this on the news last night.

Mattnzl

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#2786428 29-Sep-2021 16:30

Handle9:

Excellent. You don’t need to worry about Covid when you have no food.

Will you let them eat cake?

Exactly - most of us here probably live in households that have at least a few days food stored, and maybe weeks worth even if it wasn't particularly healthy or what we would prefer to eat.

A large number of households work on the "Just-In-Time" food method where there is absolutely nothing to eat each day until the visit to the dairy/supermarket for that days food.

mattwnz

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#2786429 29-Sep-2021 16:33

GV27:
Yikes at today's number, double yikes at the unlinked cases.

Ironically may have the perverse effect of making Aucklanders just chuck in the towel if we start heading in the wrong direction.

Locking down individual parts of Auckland at L5 won't work, not if you like having stock on your supermarket shelves or your courier/mail services still operating - if you do that then the rest of Auckland won't be able to function no matter what level they're at.

It does if it only applies to certain suburbs. But the window to eliminate the virus is closing. Auckland could be in suppression mode in a level 3 for months. I suspect what may happen is that they may go down to a level 2 but without gatherings and everything social distanced, and the border will remain closed to the rest of NZ, and the government will just continue to push vaccination. It seems that they are now on a suppression mode, not elimination mode

Scott3

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#2786434 29-Sep-2021 16:41

openmedia:

Time for a Level 5 for Auckland

Close ALL the shops
No one leaves home - excluding truly essential workers - doctors/nurses/police etc
House by house covid testing ALL of Auckland
Remove all homeless from the streets and isolate/test them
Give it 5-6 weeks and we'll have this sorted..

No?..

Go on suggest an approach that will result in ZERO deaths, as personally Zero is the only acceptable number.

In my mind, the cat is out of the bag now. The decision not to go to level 5 was made over a week ago.

In my mind the decision made on December 20th was basically:

Move up to level 5, for 1 - 2 weeks, to give us the best chance to get down to zero cases infectious in the community.
Stick with level 4. - In my mind this would be pointless - All indications were that level 4 was failing to get on top of outbreak in a timely way.
Move to an suppression statergy at level 3.

The decision to go to level 3 was very much us accepting that it is pritty unlikely we are going to get to zero cases. (but they kept the dialog that they were still aiming for that to avoid people relaxing around compliance, and to avoid pissing of the 60% + of the country outside of the Auckland region.

In my mind, we can't go to level 5 now for the following reasons:

We have Just spend a week at level 3, likely seeding many cases. So we will be close to starting again. I think the 5 - 6 weeks you state is a realistic time-frame to get on to of it, but do not feel there is social licence for that much more lockdown. Means Auckland will have spent 11 to 12 weeks in lock-down, with a decent chunk of it amounts the harshest in the world.
Lockdown fatigue gets worse as lockdowns get longer, we would likely see Aussie style protests in the streets if we did this, and much quiet rule breaking in the background.
Would need to include the likes of Tauranga given the waste water detection to avoid cases being re-seeded from their - Would be pritty unpopular given they havn't had any cases detected their recently.

One of the key issues is that MIQ & the border is inherently leaky. Seems to be a leak every few months. Spending 3 months to get on top of an outbreak with a frequency of say every 4 months isn't viable.

Asking for approaches with zero deaths is unfeasible - We have had a death from this outbreak despite what has been seen as a very aggressive response (until we dropped Auckland to level 3).

As other have said, we accept deaths in other area's. We could drop our road deaths from cira 300 to a handful by requiring every motorized vehicle be electronically limited to say 20km/h, but we don't because of the benefit (and political popularity) of higher travel speeds.

GV27

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#2786436 29-Sep-2021 16:42

mattwnz:

But it wouldn't mean this. It probably would mean that no one would be allowed to go to work, and they need to stay home. There had been no reports of people catching covid this time from supermarket shopping or from getting things delivered contactlessly. This is why is level 4.5 works be best to be used for suburbs. People get paid a helicopter payment to cover lost income etc. They were discussing this on the news last night.

If you're shutting all workplaces in Mangere/Favona, you're not going to have supermarket distribution centres or mail processing centres open, so yea, it would mean severe disruption to consumer access to goods across the entire region.

Sealing off somewhere like Massey/Hobsonville/Westgate which is almost totally residential is a hugely different ask to doing it with parts of Auckland that have core industrial/commercial activities that form vital parts of our retail supply chains, even at L3/L4.

The proof of this is in Auckland's huge amount of traffic and where it goes each day in rush hour - North and West to South. There's a reason for that.

Handle9

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#2786437 29-Sep-2021 16:43

tdgeek:

if they are found to be positive do they get shipped to Jetpark?

Yes

ezbee

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#2786451 29-Sep-2021 16:51

Handle9:

tdgeek:

if they are found to be positive do they get shipped to Jetpark?

Yes

If you are unlucky.
Apparently Ellerslie IBIS was Jetpark overflow, thus its famous escapee, and complaints of being unsuitable.

Maybe they have returned it to normal MIQ ?

There is actually a story to Jetpark a family business.

Scott3

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#2786452 29-Sep-2021 16:53

openmedia:

L5 = no shops and no mail and no deliveries = no one outside of their property.

LoL. Hope you are trolling with that. We don't have the supply chain for everybody in Auckland to stock up 5 weeks of food in advance of the lockdown.

Realistically Level 5 would be like the original level 4 in 2020, with slight tighting for ease of enforcement:

Supermarkets, Pharmacies, Utilities, Medical etc. operating as per level 4 (perhaps with vaccine mandates and / or weekly testing mandates for staff).
None of the stuff for delivery (butchers, breadmakers, TV's, air fryers etc)
No going to business for watering plants.
No going off the property for exercise or other recreation (or at least ban using your car for exercise / other recreation) - massive drop in people out makes for easier enforcement.
Pick people in supply chains that are allowed to operate - I.e. No lunchbox factories.

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