2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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20164 posts

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#2788421 2-Oct-2021 22:22

MaxineN:

This bothers me and is really testing my patience with how little we actually enforce the law on these COVID breaches when it takes shape in the form of the masses. Up to 2000 people was a lot and Brian Tamaki was well and truly leading it so why in the bloody hell isn't he copping the responsibility nor getting the book thrown at them? It was also fully supported by gangs as well. I don't get why we're so complacent on this?

What is very frustrating is that the NZ government recently announced big increases in fines. Yet they still haven't brought them in yet. The way things are going we will be living with covid throughout the community and the fines will be irrelevant.

MadEngineer

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#2788430 2-Oct-2021 23:22

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/126565039/covid19-burger-king-and-bp-stops-added-as-locations-of-interest-on-auckland-truck-drivers-palmerston-north-trip

So, is Palmy going to level 4?

You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

mattwnz

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#2788431 2-Oct-2021 23:26

No. This is why the rest of NZ is level 2.5.

heavenlywild

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#2788432 2-Oct-2021 23:45

This is inevitable. Hate to see it.

No test is going to stop an essential worker passing on COVID as it takes days to process a result.

Unless the Auckland outbreak is snuffed out, which it won't by the looks of it, COVID will leak out.

Don't count on a level 1 or 2 summer in NZ unless we get over 90% vaccinated.

Scott3

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#2788442 3-Oct-2021 00:53

GV27:

Still reckon the best chance is the vaccine passport, but current indications are that's early Nov at the earliest, which is probably just too long for most still under L3 to bother continuing to obey the lockdown rules.

Labour Weekend really is the make-or-break for whether we get on top of this - if we're not at L2 by then, I suspect many will just decide to act like we are.

Some kind of vaccination certification (No jab, no entry) seems pretty much set to happen. Prime minister has made her change of stance on that in the last few weeks pretty clear. Hopefully given the goal is to reduce hospital load, we can couple being up to date with the scheduled (MMR etc.) vaccines in with it. Would allow lots of people that don't even know they are short to catch up.

Provides a pretty strong motivator to those who are not vaccinated to get a move on if they can't access events, Hospo, Air travel etc.

It is a pity the certification system isn't ready yet. It is something that it was pritty clear that was going to be needed for international travel at least for over a year now.

But even announcing what it will look like will see a bit uptick in vaccination even without it coming into effect yet. Could say that from December 1, only fully vaccinated people will be permitted in any hospitality venues,events, flights etc. And as such people who don't want to loose access need to have their first dose in the next two weeks (given the recommended 6 week spacing).

Downside is that it puts massive workload on businesses to enforce. Cafe's will need to hire door staff etc.

I think going fully mandatory would be the best bet, would allow the government to be the enforcer, and would avoid an underclass of unvaccianted. However it would be quite unpopular. Also it might be less motivating to get people to come forward for vaccination. No way we could arrest and vaccinate 10,000+ people per day.

tdgeek:

Level 4 was working, its that simple.

The people are not complying. Households, large families, and much later on gangs and Tamaki. Level 6 wont fix that

The Govt needs to recognise Auckland and call out the idiots

I think it is clear we disagree. The stats show that level 4 was failing to get on top of the outbreak in a resolvable time.

"Level 4" doesn't just mean the the order. It means all the stuff around it like enforcement and compliance. My take is that many Aucklanders have worked out that enforcement is very loose, and the police largely take an educational approach so they can do what they like...

I would expect level 5 to be set up such that enforcement is much easier. i.e. no exercise in public. Must take direct route to nearest supermarket / pharmacy to get supplies. Much fewer businesses allowed to operate (no air fryer distribution centers or lunchbox factories). Would make enforcement a lot easier for the police.

Scott3

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#2788444 3-Oct-2021 01:08

heavenlywild: This is inevitable. Hate to see it.

No test is going to stop an essential worker passing on COVID as it takes days to process a result.

Unless the Auckland outbreak is snuffed out, which it won't by the looks of it, COVID will leak out.

Don't count on a level 1 or 2 summer in NZ unless we get over 90% vaccinated.

Yes, inevitable.

I get the impression that the Auckland border testing the government wanting more surveillance tests done full stop to gauge the amount of undetected covid-19 in the community, and by doing border worker's, not only do the capture a higher risk segment of workers, but also we get a chance to contact trace the inevitable leaks.

I think the system is working as designed.

Batman

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#2788449 3-Oct-2021 06:19

tdgeek:
A promising weapon for the arsenal

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/300421287/drugmaker-merck-says-experimental-pill-cuts-covid19-hospitalisations-and-deaths-in-half

If you are vaccinated, your health outcomes improve a great deal. This pill reduces the risk that still remains by about 50%

Not peer reviewed but a promising work in progress

EDIT

The tests were on unvaccinated people, but I'd assume it would be equally beneficial for vaccinated people who became ill. Both ways would reduce hospital care, which is a chief concern.

I'd say right now an anti vaxxer's greatest weapon.

Greatest counter is some tough love. When (ex) premier of NSW said no vaccine = no bars no party no entertainment or seemed to get people vaccinated.

Meanwhile we announce a fine and immediately proceed to allow some thousand or more to clearly show that rules are just a joke.

So... Good luck getting anybody to do anything from this day forward

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Batman

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#2788450 3-Oct-2021 06:26

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-teen-flees-vaccination-centre-after-anti-vaxxer-mother-intervenes/MY2JC63KM2TI45VOKRCB2WFEBE/

Highlights some of the finer details with children vaccination

tdgeek

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#2788453 3-Oct-2021 07:56

Scott3:

I think it is clear we disagree. The stats show that level 4 was failing to get on top of the outbreak in a resolvable time.

"Level 4" doesn't just mean the the order. It means all the stuff around it like enforcement and compliance. My take is that many Aucklanders have worked out that enforcement is very loose, and the police largely take an educational approach so they can do what they like...

I would expect level 5 to be set up such that enforcement is much easier. i.e. no exercise in public. Must take direct route to nearest supermarket / pharmacy to get supplies. Much fewer businesses allowed to operate (no air fryer distribution centers or lunchbox factories). Would make enforcement a lot easier for the police.

Level 4 was ticking down nicely, so we ended up with decreasing cases and these are mainly stupid households. How can you stop them? Stop every car on the road to check them? Patrol the streets?

DS248

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#2788461 3-Oct-2021 08:58

tdgeek:

...

Level 4 was ticking down nicely, so we ended up with decreasing cases and these are mainly stupid households. How can you stop them? Stop every car on the road to check them? Patrol the streets?

First bolded point: The trend in case numbers had already started to flatine

Second: Would have been a lot cheaper than it will be now. Ideally done in conjunction with local community leaders.

Oblivian

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#2788464 3-Oct-2021 09:13

Q+A was interesting this morning

Interview people in one of the northern areas where a marae vac centre was on the main drag. They sampled a few locals and cut it down to the people who weren't. And asked what may persuade them

Father of a 1 and 4 yr old - they couldn't be, so he saw no danger in not being either so wasn't interested
One had no intent, or her family. Persuasion by mandatory means, maybe. Although decided wouldn't travel if it was a requirement
Young bucks all had no reasoning or intentions. Of course said they might - with money (while laughing it off)

One suggestion to target the teen-mid aged ones was referral code rewards. Put the incentive in the mind of others rather than freely hand it.

tdgeek

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#2788465 3-Oct-2021 09:14

DS248:

tdgeek:

...

Level 4 was ticking down nicely, so we ended up with decreasing cases and these are mainly stupid households. How can you stop them? Stop every car on the road to check them? Patrol the streets?

First bolded point: The trend in case numbers had already started to flatine

Second: Would have been a lot cheaper than it will be now. Ideally done in conjunction with local community leaders.

An equal Y axis would be a better representation. It flatlined after strong decreases, if the daily household flouters had complied as they had before it would have continued. I don't recall any stats but I expect you would find that cases infectious in the community is a lot higher than it was in the past. Shades of NSW dailies.

Community leaders are often mentioned in the news, but all they can do is talk and ask, meanwhile the neighbourhood/family coffee and beers still continued.

Delta is more infectious which is not helpful, but the issue is compliance. Less compliance + more infectious is why we are where we are now. If compliance cannot be fixed, then you may as well go to Level 2, keep the border closed and let the people make their choice of masks, washing hands and vaccinations. The rest of NZ needs to hurry up and get their jabs while the inevitable nationwide leaks occur.

Some people have pushed the live with it forward

tdgeek

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#2788466 3-Oct-2021 09:19

Oblivian: Q+A was interesting this morning

Interview people in one of the northern areas where a marae vac centre was on the main drag. They sampled a few locals and cut it down to the people who weren't. And asked what may persuade them

Father of a 1 and 4 yr old - they couldn't be, so he saw no danger in not being either so wasn't interested
One had no intent, or her family. Persuasion by mandatory means, maybe. Although decided wouldn't travel if it was a requirement
Young bucks all had no reasoning or intentions. Of course said they might - with money (while laughing it off)

One suggestion to target the teen-mid aged ones was referral code rewards. Put the incentive in the mind of others rather than freely hand it.

Dismal reading. Probably time to give up, we are vaccinated, have masks, take due care, and forget the daily case reports I think. Someone will let me know when it hits our town I guess

gzt

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#2788472 3-Oct-2021 09:41

The Maori and Pacific vaccine rollout is in an iniquitous state:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300401403/covid19-the-stark-inequity-of-the-vaccine-rollout

It's late but more things are starting to happen:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/300412124/rangatahi-vaccine-campaign-to-launch-as-govt-feels-sting-of-low-mori-vaccination-rates

There were many many warnings and a high profile resignation predicting exactly this would happen.

Fred99

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#2788473 3-Oct-2021 09:41

The issue with low vaccine take-up in the <50YO Maori demographic in particular (but not limited to that group) is the result of a general mistrust of authority or "the system" - specifically including medical system in this case. Entirely different from the woo woo "alternative health" crystal wavers, 5g chip anti-vaxxers, alt-right conspiracy theorists etc - though the abject BS being spread by them clearly doesn't help.

It needs to be sorted in the very short term - but how? (How to sort out the broader issues for the long term probably belongs in the politics forum)

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