2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2788702 3-Oct-2021 18:15

Buster:

Re : the spot check borders around Hamilton.

If no reasonable reason or work exemption is quickly forthcoming. Turn them around with a fine included.

Repeat offenders. Confiscate the transportation. Crush at a later date.

Agree, but its just words. Unless you control every border road and intersection, its a leak-fest.

I am 100% in favour of elimination, buy time, let science give us more info, vaccines, boosters. BUT its too late as the flouters have failed us all. Its over.

tdgeek

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#2788704 3-Oct-2021 18:20

mattwnz:

I wouldn't be surprised if some restrictions are eased, but if they dropped a level they would have to admit they are giving up on elimination IMO, because level 3 is clearly causing the situation to get worse, and the risk to the rest of NZ also increased. Wouldn't be surprised to see triple digit cases in the next week or two, especially after the rallies that have been held.

I respect your posts but that's incorrect. L3 is not the cause, flouters are the cause. Households and neighbours is a long standing issue. Now we have gangs and Brian (he doesn't deserve his Maori name)

So Auckland, Tauranga, Palmy, Hamilton, and before long it will be the SI. Lockdowns work but if the compliance is lax, they dont, and no, you cannot patrol every street. I am in SI, Level 2, Im preparing for L3. Negative, no, its reality.

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#2788705 3-Oct-2021 18:21

Level 3 is elimination. But I don't think the PM mentioned elimination at all today :/ . I just wish the public were privy to more info. I think they made a huge error dropping down from level 4 to 3 because the experts kept saying that it was going to make elimination a lot harder. It isn't too late, but it probably will be very soon once cases hit a hundred a day.

mattwnz

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#2788707 3-Oct-2021 18:24

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

I wouldn't be surprised if some restrictions are eased, but if they dropped a level they would have to admit they are giving up on elimination IMO, because level 3 is clearly causing the situation to get worse, and the risk to the rest of NZ also increased. Wouldn't be surprised to see triple digit cases in the next week or two, especially after the rallies that have been held.

I respect your posts but that's incorrect. L3 is not the cause, flouters are the cause. Households and neighbours is a long standing issue. Now we have gangs and Brian (he doesn't deserve his Maori name)

So Auckland, Tauranga, Palmy, Hamilton, and before long it will be the SI. Lockdowns work but if the compliance is lax, they dont, and no, you cannot patrol every street. I am in SI, Level 2, Im preparing for L3. Negative, no, its reality.

Yes flouters are the cause, but level 4 keeps the effects of flouting down, and eventually it should die out amongst those flouters and their contacts, as the virus runs out of new hosts. But large households were likely able to keep the virus alive for far longer than 2 transmission cycles. Level 3 allows it to spread more due to the flouting, and those flouters coming into contact with more people. I wonder what the R0 is now under level 3, because it was under 1 under level 4.

IMO we should have been instructing people to report flouting more, but instead people have been criticized for it not being the kiwi thing to do. Instead people should be commended for reporting flouters, as they are saving lives. Bring the new larger fines in now under urgency etc, it is crazy they announce big fines but they don't come in until the end of the year when they were needed yesterday. People don't like it when they are hit in their back pocket.

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#2788708 3-Oct-2021 18:25

Fred99:

You're presuming that the two cases in Hamilton East and Raglan are "deadshits". That's not a reasonable attitude.

They may be. But it will be interesting (and Im not bagging AKL) what will happen in other regions the we all get cases from AKL. Will we sort it??

gzt

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#2788709 3-Oct-2021 18:26

alexx: , Peter Mortlock's "City Impact" which is a larger church is also spreading covid & vaccine disinformation.

This is a lot of info here:
https://twitter.com/davidfarrier/status/1444122714210377730

City Impact Church and Destiny Church, the religious groups behind the superspreader protest event yesterday that the police just let happen, have received a combined total, in excess of $1,000,000 from the Government COVID relief fund.

So the best response is to remove the churches wage subsidy and tax free status.

Holy hell. I thought CI was all about feel good prosperity gospel evangelicalism. Imo all these guys see a drop in donations when people are not attending and that's the real issue for them. No excuse for spouting the crazy stuff.

mattwnz

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#2788710 3-Oct-2021 18:28

tdgeek:

They may be. But it will be interesting (and Im not bagging AKL) what will happen in other regions the we all get cases from AKL. Will we sort it??

I saw it mentioned that 1 had been sick for a week. Not good.

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heavenlywild

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#2788711 3-Oct-2021 18:30

Honesty they can set boundaries but Delta doesn't care for boundaries.

It's like putting tape over wet paper... it's only a matter of time.

tdgeek

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#2788712 3-Oct-2021 18:30

Batman:

mattwnz:

i was going to make a joke about what this chart also seems to reflect but i wont!

/j

You already did and its not funny.

No, Im not Maori or Pasifika, but this is either a problem or its racist.

Batman

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#2788713 3-Oct-2021 18:31

mattwnz:

Level 3 is elimination. But I don't think the PM mentioned elimination at all today :/ . I just wish the public were privy to more info. I think they made a huge error dropping down from level 4 to 3 because the experts kept saying that it was going to make elimination a lot harder. It isn't too late, but it probably will be very soon once cases hit a hundred a day.

whatever level we're in the way we were doing it ain't going to eliminate delta.

once you reach a point of mass protest you can be in level 10 and you won't eliminate.

society is not a computer program, it is a living organism that has psychological dimension.

tdgeek

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#2788714 3-Oct-2021 18:33

Batman:

Not only no mention of elimination but news are saying level 4 is not considered and a roadmap will be presented soon.

Because a small select few of the team of 1.7M screwed it, or did that go over your head? This is now a NZ outbreak. Watch this space.

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#2788715 3-Oct-2021 18:39

mattwnz:

Apparently it was toned down from what it was going to be, but there could be others. Maybe police checkpoints on all the incoming roads to the rally, to check that people travelling have a good reason to be out and about. Level 3 is still 'stay at home', unless out for permitted reasons, such as people are working or picking up essentials, or exercising.

https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-levels-and-updates/alert-level-3/

At Alert Level 3, travel is restricted and only allowed for permitted movement in your local area, for example going to work or school if you need to, shopping, visiting people in your bubble, getting exercise or travelling to a gathering that is allowed.

Again, I respect that. Bt your seeking a great solution, as I do. If Brian had advised everyone and all manner of protections were put in place, and every cooperated that will be great. But its not reality. Apparently, could be, maybe doesnt cut it. We need to get real, Kiwis cannot eliminate it now. The team of 5M is no good if its the team if 4.98M

We need a new roadmap as the proven resolution doesnt work now

tdgeek

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#2788717 3-Oct-2021 18:47

Scott3:

Similar story to Singapore many months ago. Their containment measures were working well until the virus found it's way into the workers dormitories.

Ultimately any strategy needs to account for the weakest probable link. In our level 4 it appeared to be:

Intermingling of extended family households
Temporary / Transient housing & boarding houses
Organised crime groups.
Some essential workplaces (but to a lesser extent than the above).
Simply saying level 4 was fine but for a some rule breaking ignores that any containment measures need to be sufficient to achieve their purposes with the level of rule breaking that would be expected at the level of enforcement applied. I think the level 4 rules needed to be more optimized for ease of enforcement. For example allowing the use of a vehicle to go to a place of recreation, along with allowing distribution centers for "essential" goods like air fryers meant that the volume of car's on the road was high enough that stopping a decent chunk of vehicles wasn't viable. And that the police were taking an educational approach meant everybody get's one chance to get caught before there are any consequences.

The bottom line was that level 4 was failing to get on top of the outbreak in a timely way.

Why did it work in March 2020 and in AKL after that?

I dont disagree with your points but it worked before now it didn't. Im not sure where enforcement sits, its probably between educational and legal. But now its probably hindsight and moot.

As someone who was quite bull on this, Im quite negative now, its over. Thats the reality. Hindsight allows posts not results. and this isn't China. We can't "enforce"

Like NSW we now have x% infectious in the community. You cannot fight that.

tdgeek

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#2788718 3-Oct-2021 18:51

Scott3:

While we may disagree as you pointed out, I respect your posts. Lengthy detailed, and valued

Its a difficult animal.

andrew75

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#2788721 3-Oct-2021 19:00

Why did it work in March 2020 and in AKL after that?

Delta. Much more infectious.

Elimination is dead. Its pointless. Even if by some miracle we did reduce cases to zero, we'd invariably be back here again in another few months. And again. And again.

What needs to come now are lock-downs seeking to balance demands of not overloading the health system and doing as little damage is possible to the economy.

The only way out of this is vaccination, but unfortunately there are plenty of nutters around who are going to make getting to a truly high level of vaccination coverage extremely difficult.

My prediction is level 3 continuing until the majority of the outstanding 2nd doses are given, then a reduction to a level 2.5, and then probably bouncing between 2.5 and 3 for the next 6-12 months.

And why hasn't Brian Tamaki been arrested yet? Are they seriously going to let him get away with the nonsense that went on yesterday. He needs to be thrown behind bars for 6 months.

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