2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2788753 3-Oct-2021 20:21

gzt:

The govt needs to explore all options to deliver the vaccine. Start to listen to established Maori and Pacific advisory people about what it will take.

Even at 95% there will be serious issues and challenges to overcome. Anyway, one thing at a time. Get to 95% and aim higher.

I dont think there is an issue with vaccine supply.

tdgeek

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#2788755 3-Oct-2021 20:23

mattwnz:

Yes. IMO this difference could have been a significant factor. Last years level 4 was far more of a lockdown with far more compliance. Not sure if there were any stats showing the difference of movements and traffic between this years level 4 and last year's version.

Last year my house seemed it was in a ghost town. I was pretty happy about that, all us Kiwis fighting the same fight.

tdgeek

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#2788757 3-Oct-2021 20:24

Batman:

mattwnz:

Yes. IMO this difference could have been a significant factor. Last years level 4 was far more of a lockdown with far more compliance. Not sure if there were any stats showing the difference of movements and traffic between this years level 4 and last year's version.

last year with less contagious variant, slower to become infectious, harsher lockdown, health minister got sacked for flout

this year with much more contagious variant, infectious within a day, slacker lockdown, and even slacker policing.

i'm fine with the way this turns out as the rest of the world has had this for the last 18 months.

what i find interesting is in that 18 months we didn't appear to have made any preparation.

You are ignoring the compliance back then, in favour of a sensationalist post.

Batman

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#2788760 3-Oct-2021 20:43

andrew75:

True nutters yes, but the problem is they make plenty of noise and the hesitant pay attention to them. I see it every day at work, its exhausting trying to turn them around.

There's also an awful lot of young people who don't see CV as something that they have to worry about, and haven't made the cognitive connection in their brains that even if they get it and recover fine, they will pass it on to 10 other people and that is what the real problem is, and that is ultimately going to result in something that does affect them.

since when do people in 2020 care about anyone but themselves

RUKI

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#2788767 3-Oct-2021 20:55

Batman:
since when do people in 2020 care about anyone but themselves

A lot of people never did, and a lot of people never stopped.
Recent example of people caring about others is 2 week search by volunteers for one farther of 3.
In that example ratio of those who cared is dozens to 1

Handle9

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#2788769 3-Oct-2021 21:08

tdgeek:
Fred99:

You're presuming that the two cases in Hamilton East and Raglan are "deadshits". That's not a reasonable attitude.

They may be. But it will be interesting (and Im not bagging AKL) what will happen in other regions the we all get cases from AKL. Will we sort it??

No. You’ll have all the same problems. It’s been the same everywhere in the western world.

Scott3

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#2788772 3-Oct-2021 21:11

MadEngineer:

This case just screams out for compulsory jabs. What’s the excuse for this driver to not be vaccinated already? Can we enforce jabs for those that want these travel exceptions?

Well done to his household contacts for being vaccinated. Let’s hope they continue to test negative.

If by "We" you mean the NZ government, absolutely we can. Parliament is supreme, they can do what ever they like. Would be similar to the requirement for border worker's to be vaccinated.

At a more practical level, the digital vaccine certification system isn't ready yet, So it wouldn't be a simple as turning back every driver who doesn't flash a pass at the checkpoint.

But still we could require a MOH issued pass to cross the border, which involves them doing a vaccination status check.

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Wakrak

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#2788778 3-Oct-2021 21:22

Alert level boundary map has just been updated with Waikato L3 details.

https://covid19.govt.nz/travel/permitted-travel-at-different-alert-levels/alert-level-boundary-map

Scott3

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#2788795 3-Oct-2021 22:47

tdgeek:

Why did it work in March 2020 and in AKL after that?

I dont disagree with your points but it worked before now it didn't. Im not sure where enforcement sits, its probably between educational and legal. But now its probably hindsight and moot.

As someone who was quite bull on this, Im quite negative now, its over. Thats the reality. Hindsight allows posts not results. and this isn't China. We can't "enforce"

Like NSW we now have x% infectious in the community. You cannot fight that.

I read somewhere that lock-down effectiveness decays over time due to lockdown fatigue, and each successive lock down is less effective a prior similar one, with lock down fatigue setting in sooner that time.

The situation in March 2020 was very different to the current situation:

Different virus stain - Delta is estimated to be around twice as contagious as the original Wuhan stain.
Very different rules in the first few weeks of the march 2020 lock-down. If you recall the rules got relaxed as we started to get on top of the outbreak. I.e. distribution centers dispatching airfryers, clothes, shoes etc were not allowed in the original level 4. Going to workplaces to water the plants etc was banned etc.
No body was vaccinated, and we had seen via international media the massive issues in Wuhan, Italy, and later New York. Fear was an effective motivator.
We didn't have the covid-19 treatments and knowledge we have now, and as a result way more people were dieing.
We has piss all testing capacity, so the true extent of the spread of covid-19 wasn't known.
The mis-information networks had yet to spin up. On the 17 march 2020 Billy TK posted “take care & be vigilant and careful about this corona virus” - It wasn't untill March 20 that he posted is first conspiracy link and started his journy to become NZ's most well known conspiracy theorist.
Because of the shock of the pandemic hitting, it was kinda exciting, and basically the whole world was either going into lockdown's or dealing with big case numbers. We weren't watching stadiums full of people on international TV.
Once we got through first 2.5 weeks of level 4 in 2020, it was clear we were winning, making tail end of the lockdown experience positive.
People hadn't worked out it was allowed to drive to a "reasonable" accessible location for exercise, and to be in public for "other recreation" yet.
The public hadn't worked out the odds of enforcement action were really low.
We seemed to go harder on the likes of homing rough sleepers than we did this time.

All this stacked up to massively less people out of home at the start of level 4 lockdown in 2020. Media as full of shots of empty motorways etc. That didn't happen this time, in turn meaning the odds or enforcement action were even lower. Those that are concerned about covid-19 were allergy vaccinated or got vaccinated quick smart, and those that didn't care well didn't. both groups could get away with pritty much whatever they wanted.

In terms of aucklands second outbreak (the level 3), again we were dealing with a less contagious strain. I think we managed to take action when it had much less spread, and contact tracing was pritty effective at preventing spread.

This time around, the virus has spread massively by the time we picked up, and the virus had found it's way in to younger, more socially mobile populations (perhaps due to older populations being vaccinated).

I think luck plays a massive role. I don't think we had the virus hit the likes of gang's, transient housing, rough sleepers in prior outbreaks.

-------------------------

As you say, it is over now. The cat is out of the bag. Government has ruled out going back to level 4 at todays press conference.

Not that level 4 would work. If it didn't work a couple of weeks back, it would be way worse now.

Social licence is gone, and the most effective tool in the first lockdown was widespread buy in, meaning only limited enforcement was needed (and actually nothing in the first few days as the government was just bluffing as they didn't have the orders in place to enforce the lock down yet).

Would require a draconian level of enforcement now (and rules that make enforcement easy). Hard to justify when we:

Have 800,000 vaccine doses in the freezer
Are going to keep getting MIQ leaks anyway
Have way better treatment methods (only one death so far this outbreak)
Are going to open up to the world at some point.

In terms of feeling negitive about this, sure failure sucks, but there are some positives. We were lucky for just long enough (in terms of the timing of this outbreak) that this outbreak should work out ok.

Our current lock down's have taken us far enough through the seasons, any peak is likely to be in summer.
Many of our vaccines (one of the best brands available) will be quite fresh when we get to the peak.
This is going to give the government the public buy in to do what they need to get great vaccine uptake (no jab, no entry etc.)
Means we will likely open up international travel sooner than we would have otherwise.
We can learn from what happend in NSW and Vic.
We were lucky for just long enough that this outbreak should work out ok
Hopefully we will have vaccines for 5 - 11 year olds approved this year, which should help a lot with reducing spread.
Hopefully we will see vaccines for 6mo - 4 year old approved before winter.
That oral antiviral drug if approved here should allow us to massively reduce load on our hospitals, which was allways one of the biggest issues with covid-19.

tdgeek:

While we may disagree as you pointed out, I respect your posts. Lengthy detailed, and valued

Its a difficult animal.

Cheers.

Scott3

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#2788796 3-Oct-2021 22:52

Buster:

Outside of Auckland it is still worth fighting for. The Auckland border stays.

Auckland won't see zero again until the whole thing fizzles out (I suppose it will eventually).

Subject to vaccination rates there should soon be a proportional relaxation of restrictions in Auckland.

With the rest of the north island, we might as well try and hold the virus back as long as we can. Every week has more people vaccinated, and moves us closer to summer, and things like approvals of new antiviral drugs, and vaccines for younger age groups. But I think spread is inevitable. But we need to keep it slow to buy time.

But I think (and saying this as an Auckland), that we should have a serious crack at saving the south island. Put in domestic MIQ for (very limited) southbound travel. Means south island residents can live it up in level 1 (and have associated economic output) until they have a MIQ leak. Might even be able to send some resources (ICU nurses?) north to help us out if the pressure really comes on.

gzt

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#2788798 3-Oct-2021 22:54

andrew75:
The number of total nutters is vanishingly small. Ignore them, they don't deserve any attention. We can easily get to 95% without worrying about the nutters.
True nutters yes, but the problem is they make plenty of noise and the hesitant pay attention to them. I see it every day at work, its exhausting trying to turn them around.

I see it too. The other thing I see is those exact same people getting vaxxed as those around them do.

gzt

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#2788799 3-Oct-2021 23:06

mattwnz:

Many Asian people remember SARS and how bad that was, and how bad that potentially was. Anyone with a connection to the Indian subcontinent knows how bad covid impact is now in that part of the world.

The Maori number is low for two or three reasons. Younger population in comparison to euro ethnic group. Higher population in smaller centres and rural. Government previously failing to realise any of this and other factors would be an issue.

MadEngineer

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#2788804 3-Oct-2021 23:57

I can’t see us reaching 90% vaccinated when we barely make that number for kids of other vaccines, which are pretty much automatic.

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/q4_quarterly_report_3_month_all_milestones_by_ethnicity_deprivation_and_dhb_12072021.xlsx

You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

mattwnz

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#2788806 4-Oct-2021 00:35

MadEngineer: I can’t see us reaching 90% vaccinated when we barely make that number for kids of other vaccines, which are pretty much automatic.

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/q4_quarterly_report_3_month_all_milestones_by_ethnicity_deprivation_and_dhb_12072021.xlsx

There is a lot of misinformation out there. People waiting to see how safe it actually it due to it being so new. I don't know how they can get past this. I know of people who say they won't be getting vaccinated, far more than I would have expected.

GV27

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#2788815 4-Oct-2021 07:08

So, another D-Day for Auckland, with an extreme sense of resignation.

We are about to find out how much power those who will not vaccinate or obey lockdown rules have over those who do.

Level 3 for another period of time is not in doubt, the real question is 'how long for'?

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