2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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6325 posts

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#2791364 7-Oct-2021 17:10

Oblivian:

You can still try yourself and see.

The spacing prior. Was defaulted wider, but you could still drop it to the min 3 if it didn't suit.

Just got back from the chop chop at the hospital but Im pretty sure Im up in 14 days.

I think if the view to boosters is there, then its probably a good thing?

Definitely noticed big qeues yesterday of 20-35yo's, the jump in 2% of booked vax 1st dose yesterday probably reflects it, but expect the actual 1st dose to have jumped from 80% yesterday. The main thing it seems is the rapid jump of 40-50% 2nd/fully yesterday.

Perhaps it is anti vaxx folks actually realising this is very real, or it is simply the age group where mortality doesn't seem a big thing, either way, pleasing to see.

ezbee:

Rapid COVID-19 tests increasingly scarce, pricey as demand from employers jumps

Would the US 230mill order likely have made that scarce factor also a price factor? Not sure how the testing market works, but supply and demand and all that. Along with Aus and obviously the European countries who have been doing so for a while.

Edit: Read the article, definitely makes sense. Although I thought rapid ant was most effective for ongoing use due to shedding and such ie ongoing border crossing workers and front line health workers. Didn't realise it was being used as one offs for Work Place etc.

Oblivian

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#2791376 7-Oct-2021 17:22

TeaLeaf: Definitely noticed big qeues yesterday of 20-35yo's, the jump in 2% of booked vax 1st dose yesterday probably reflects it, but expect the actual 1st dose to have jumped from 80% yesterday. The main thing it seems is the rapid jump of 40-50% 2nd/fully yesterday.

That's why getting everyone in bulk now will assist to booster more in the future than spread out. They can put a 'from' date as supply allows.

We're also nearly 6wks from the initial outbreak push. When 1st doses spiked. So the inevitable is occuring this week as seen by the 18k on Tuesday..

1st dosers that rushed due outbreak are getting their 2nd. This will make the fully jabbed jump as their spacing catches up.

The slackers who have fomo for the passport announcement jumping in with 1st dose this week.

And those who booked early, but did not reschedule when new venues come up or have not taken walk in advantage will all be due about now for outside akl going by test bookings I did during aug/sept

TeaLeaf

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#2791387 7-Oct-2021 17:33

Oblivian:
And those who booked early, but did not reschedule when new venues come up or have not taken walk in advantage will all be due about now for outside akl going by test bookings I did during aug/sept

Yep. I think you summarized the situation pretty good there.

Given how very quick Pfizer/Biontech can build an mRNA vax, and Moderna will be rolling out supply to poorer nations with the current dominant strain first, I'd imagine dominant strain boosters won't be too far away. It is all looking positive imo.

I think ours is on the 25th from memory. I feel pretty horrid permanently with the ongoing issues, so will be interesting to see how much of an immune response I get from the 2nd jab....

From a glass half full perspective, regardless of WHY people have been motivated, it does seem to be working. If we can just get the mask in public spaces trajectory heading upward, I think we might just have this (hoping we do). I see plenty of cyclists wearing masks, yet I don't see people on the sidewalk, who definitely pass within a couple of feet not wearing masks (those that I have noticed are upward of middle aged). But in the playgrounds, mums with kids chatting to other mums with kids, no masks. The same outside local shops where people pick up a coffee and have a chat. It just feels like a non priority. I don't know the answer, but a video like the UK RapAnt tests, showing the benefit of quality masks and the benefit in public spaces could be a good idea..... Will always get non/low compliance, but the young mothers I am sure are not trying to flout rules as I do not know if its really been stated as a rule as such, more "and, please wear a mask".

Just quickly on a side note that clear roads during lvl 4 made. The roads in Auck starting to get busy again, but looking at what is on the road, this pandemic has made it clear to see the cost of slowing down our freight through Auck bottlenecks. Im hoping eventually we do get trains over the bridge etc and people get out of single person cars. I understand not wanting to use buses, but trains in my experience globally, provided you get a seat, are an excellent way to commute.

Handle9

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#2791394 7-Oct-2021 17:45

Wearing masks outdoors is of limited benefit and is when masks are least comfortable to wear. There is outdoor transmission but it’s far less significant than indoor transmission.

Wearing masks indoors is a far far more significant benefit and it’s also more comfortable and gets better levels of compliance.

TeaLeaf

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#2791401 7-Oct-2021 17:54

Handle9: Wearing masks outdoors is of limited benefit and is when masks are least comfortable to wear. There is outdoor transmission but it’s far less significant than indoor transmission.

Wearing masks indoors is a far far more significant benefit and it’s also more comfortable and gets better levels of compliance.

No doubt. Until we see full retail open again, compliance indoors will be hard to gauge.

Still a benefit outdoors though, obviously the nature of where outdoors does change things a bit too, ie behind a protected wall. I think with the best mask being the one you have on you and some being much easier to comply with outdoors while exercising, it could just be a case of choosing appropriately. We choose to only use a cloth mask (a pharmacy brand) when hiking as much easier to breath in than the n95. I noticed today when at the Hosp, the n95 was becoming very irritating to the nose and facial area due to the heat in the building.

Whoop, we up 1% to 51% today for double dosed. Per 1000 Nelson/Marlborough is leading double dosed. Auck single dosed with Capital/Coast/Huttvalley close behind.

The main thing that is a welcome site is the doses per day graph heading upward again, lets hope it lasts.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#by-day

tdgeek

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#2791407 7-Oct-2021 18:12

quickymart:

The less antivaxxers in the world, the better. Fortunately they don't seem to have really gained too much of a foothold here as opposed to the US, for example.

I have a work colleague, salt of the earth. he has a conspiracy feel, in that we didn't land on the moon, and Bush bombed the Twin Towers, etc, etc. Ok so we had the normal mates convos, and Covid is a rort. I distanced myself. Recently we got talking again. he has had his first jab, his doctor said there are heart issues (I see that with Moderna) and he told me that if you are over 65 or have issues or if you are a fat B'stard, get a jab and stay home . F'k me days. He's had a jab, no doubt as the gf who he sucks up to, (who is lovely) told him to. Crap like this makes me sick. He can't understand why he could be denied entry. Well, if its just about you, them yeah, I get it. But are you happy to spread it so that the vulnerable can catch it? No they get jabbed and stay home. Ugh. While he says he's not an anti vaxxer "I just want to look at the pros and cons" this is what's out there.

We wont get 90%+ but hope we get to say 87% and when we see it stall, we call time. And dont get your cert and stay home.

tdgeek

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#2791409 7-Oct-2021 18:22

mattwnz:

The question is how many people are going to ease off, when there may be no hope for elimination. I feel the governemnt caved into pressure from the media and other parties, when it should have been possible to eliminate, and appear to have gone against some advice from the top experts, especially with vaccination levels still too low. I see media are wanting to see the MOHs recommendations to the government over the level changes. One of the problems though with not eliminating it , is now we are going to get increasing stories causing stress and anxiety as it spreads and worsens. Then all the social restrictions. Apparently toilet paper is again getting low in some supermarkets but that is predicable.

But we need to remember that Australia didn't have an elimination policy and Queensland and South Australia have managed to stamp out delta over time. I just wish that everyone followed the rules and did what they should in respect to other people, rather than just thinking of themselves.

We cannot eliminate it. Period. Compliance, for whatever reason is low. The MOH recommendations were, according to Dr A, all followed. There is low risk. Id assume as MOST of AKL has done very well, but there are those that haven't.

Vaccination levels too low? Thats on you and me and the rest of the 5 million. Yes there may be demographics that find it hard but not now

Hw can you say spread and worsen when you next say social restrictions? You cannot have both.

QLD and SA did, as did we. QLD now has cases, why didn't you mention NSW and VIC?

Sorry, but you want a Utopia it wont happen. Do our best even though our best NOW is lower compliance, so it will spread, the ONLY issue now is keeping the spread low enough to not drag down hospital beds.

Jab Jab Jab

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tdgeek

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#2791411 7-Oct-2021 18:24

Oblivian:

Because there is an actual FOMO (fear of missing out) going on now with the large event announcements and further spreading south.

It's put a rocket up a few who as the media and M.Hipkins put today 'waiting it out to see if it will pass them by'

Yep, its quite weird, all of us in NZ know the deal. But it takes an outbreak to scan, test and get a jab.

quickymart

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#2791415 7-Oct-2021 18:30

tdgeek:

While he says he's not an anti vaxxer "I just want to look at the pros and cons" this is what's out there.

...reckon eh. I think this is quite possibly the kind of thing that cost Peter Williams his job on Magic Talk ("just asking the questions", bs, whatever), when he did a shout out for Voices of Freedom, one of the biggest antivax groups in NZ:

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/magic-talks-peter-williams-gives-shout-out-to-anti-vaxxers

Admittedly, he "left" some months later, but I strongly suspect him doing this had a fairly big part to play in it, especially given he just left so suddenly. A pity as he'd had a fairly stellar broadcasting career up until that point. I think the antivax bs just put people (and the station management) off him.

mattwnz

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#2791418 7-Oct-2021 18:34

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

The question is how many people are going to ease off, when there may be no hope for elimination. I feel the governemnt caved into pressure from the media and other parties, when it should have been possible to eliminate, and appear to have gone against some advice from the top experts, especially with vaccination levels still too low. I see media are wanting to see the MOHs recommendations to the government over the level changes. One of the problems though with not eliminating it , is now we are going to get increasing stories causing stress and anxiety as it spreads and worsens. Then all the social restrictions. Apparently toilet paper is again getting low in some supermarkets but that is predicable.

But we need to remember that Australia didn't have an elimination policy and Queensland and South Australia have managed to stamp out delta over time. I just wish that everyone followed the rules and did what they should in respect to other people, rather than just thinking of themselves.

We cannot eliminate it. Period. Compliance, for whatever reason is low. The MOH recommendations were, according to Dr A, all followed. There is low risk. Id assume as MOST of AKL has done very well, but there are those that haven't.

Vaccination levels too low? Thats on you and me and the rest of the 5 million. Yes there may be demographics that find it hard but not now

Hw can you say spread and worsen when you next say social restrictions? You cannot have both.

QLD and SA did, as did we. QLD now has cases, why didn't you mention NSW and VIC?

Sorry, but you want a Utopia it wont happen. Do our best even though our best NOW is lower compliance, so it will spread, the ONLY issue now is keeping the spread low enough to not drag down hospital beds.

Jab Jab Jab

The difference with NSW/ Victoria vs Auckland, is NSW delayed lockdown until it was too late. Victoria has been in lockdown for nearly a year in total and and lockdown fatigue, and flouting gradually rose as a result. Auckland has been in lockdown for a fraction of that time and cases were picked up early, so far more similar situation to Queensland and South Australia, and experts said that because of this it was possible to eliminate it. The problem is where it has spread. IMO we want to try and reduce the spread from the rest of NZ as best we can, which is one reason Auckland has a hard border. The worst thing would be just to relax restrictions and let it rip, because it would be catastrophic. The NZ media is still referring to it as a 'long tail' of Delta.

tdgeek

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#2791420 7-Oct-2021 18:37

quickymart:

tdgeek:

While he says he's not an anti vaxxer "I just want to look at the pros and cons" this is what's out there.

...reckon eh. I think this is quite possibly the kind of thing that cost Peter Williams his job on Magic Talk ("just asking the questions", bs, whatever), when he did a shout out for Voices of Freedom, one of the biggest antivax groups in NZ:

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/magic-talks-peter-williams-gives-shout-out-to-anti-vaxxers

Admittedly, he "left" some months later, but I strongly suspect him doing this had a fairly big part to play in it, especially given he just left so suddenly.

Yep, its out there. I spent time every day in hospital as my dear stepdad was dying. Took a break with the BIL, I asked have you been jabbed, he laughed at me, no way mate. Its not like this type are weird, they are normal people. Like my mate. So, the 90%+ wont happen, but if it stalls at 87% or less, then push forward. Cant help those that cant help themselves.

tdgeek

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#2791425 7-Oct-2021 18:39

Hundreds of Northlanders have heeded the call to get vaccinated against Covid-19, after a weak positive case was identified in Whangārei.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126607221/covid19-northlanders-rush-for-vaccine-after-weak-positive-case-in-whangrei

Says it all. #horsebolted

quickymart

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#2791430 7-Oct-2021 18:56

Looking at the positives, at least they're (finally) getting vaccinated, just a pity it took this to happen for them to get it done.

Fred99

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#2791433 7-Oct-2021 19:12

tdgeek:

So, the 90%+ wont happen, but if it stalls at 87% or less, then push forward. Cant help those that cant help themselves.

I hope you're wrong.

With the right persuasion to round up the "hesitant" I think it's possible. NZ isn't the US where they've been rolling out vaccine since the start of the year - but we only got started with relatively unhindered access a month or so ago.

NZ already has a higher rate of first dose administered - 80%. (82% booked) vs 65% US average. (NY Times data)

The highest ranked US states (Vermont and Massachusetts) are at 78%, West Virginia and Idaho only 48%.

TeaLeaf

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#2791435 7-Oct-2021 19:13

mattwnz:

so far more similar situation to Queensland and South Australia, and experts said that because of this it was possible to eliminate it. The problem is where it has spread. IMO we want to try and reduce the spread from the rest of NZ as best we can, which is one reason Auckland has a hard border. The worst thing would be just to relax restrictions and let it rip, because it would be catastrophic. The NZ media is still referring to it as a 'long tail' of Delta.

Another perspective on Auckland is also how damn spread out it is, its a big geographical area, especially terms of length. You can go from cows to 6 story apartments across a road and back to suburbia without travelling too far.

I think this may be part of why, on queue after we started chat about using Rapid Antigen testing a couple days back, Hipkins has suddenly conceded its not such a bad thing and will be part of our bag of tools. Clearly depending on which news you read, you get a different perspective on any given Politician. I personally feel fairly confident if they do use all the tools correctly (that is really what matters here) and apply a blow torch to certain parts of Auckland, we could still see case numbers drop again. But that is, an Auckland perspective.

Interesting article on Vaccine waning/Immunity aging and BreakThroughCovid. Numbers Zdogg on YT rolled out were 76% for Moderna and 42% for Pfizer (I will listen again to confirm the pfizer %). Zdoggs theory on this is the viral load or dose in Moderna being stronger. Where listening to ABC corona cast both were given roughly 20% wane per month with Pfizers waning peaking out at 36% (I do not remember the numbers for the other brands). That is completely efficacy against infection. The rate of severe illness regardless of which Vax is still extremely low. But this stat is interesting, from this article, this is referring to the USA "the hospitalization rate for vaccinated people is, for most states, at or just below 0.01 percent"

Give me a waning vax that I will likely get a booster for and much less chance of hospitlisation, over the rare chance (is it 1 in 1mill?) of A side effect (of which I believe they have to report all instances to the CDC regardless of comorbidity existing) any day of the week. If that doesn't sell itself, I don't know what will.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2021/08/breakthrough-covid-19-cases-may-be-a-bigger-problem.html

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