2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2791800 8-Oct-2021 14:01

Zeon:
Otara West: 62% first dose

I doubt Otara is a hold-out for anti-vaxxers - either people simply don't care, don't know or can't get out due to lots of kids etc..

Door to door may be the only option there...

Im 100 with you, I do not believe South Auck is a large anti vaxx Clique. Pamphlet drop at minimum, Info on facts of hospitlisation and or death for those vaccinated vs unvaccinated.

Interestingly Fergusson shows up red rather than Otara west, yet its SD64% DD35%.

Back on boosters. It was always expected there would be a big race between big pharmas for leading vax efficacy etc. I think given what appears a much better immunity wane from Moderna vs Pfizer, that at this stage Moderna looks like the vax of choice for those who have a choice. The great news is, regardless, NZ is not hemmed into one vax or the other (unless we signed some agreement we are not privy too). Watch this space for both Immunity waning and the possibility of a "One Dose to rule them all" bio tech, spoken of, but not clearly in the pipelines.

MikeB4

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#2791806 8-Oct-2021 14:20

This scares me. Victoria calling the military to assist. Covid-19 Australia: Victoria has 1838 new local cases, 5 deaths; NSW has 646 new cases and 11 deaths | Stuff.co.nz . If things go south here our undermanned military is already stretched very thin with the commitment to MIQ duties and other ongoing missions. The NZDF ability to respond further would be limited.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

GV27

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#2791810 8-Oct-2021 14:23

Am I right in thinking the unlinked cases can be interpreted as 'unexpected'?

People seem to be comfortable with these numbers because they 'expected 45 cases linked to household contacts' but they seem to be reporting that separately.

Linuxluver

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#2791811 8-Oct-2021 14:23

quickymart:

Linuxluver:

The big spread now is also among children. They are emerging as a major vector for spreading Covid in the UK and the US....and can take home viral loads from school-caught infections that overwhelm their parents' vaccinations......

Saw this on the North Shore Times tonight:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300423153/paediatricians-say-covid-risk-to-preschool-kids-is-low-as-daycares-reopen

That's a separate issue. The kids might not suffer any effects, but they carry the infection and others get it. Nana. Aunty.....etc...etc. Meanwhile......kids do die from it. Little ones can have "pre-existing conditions" that haven't been diagnosed yet.....

This doctor is out of date. What she is saying was true for original covid. It's not true for delta.

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Linuxluver

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#2791813 8-Oct-2021 14:27

Handle9:

.....

That article is consistent with my experience of the last 12 months. Kids do get covid but the vast majority get over it pretty quickly. In a school of over 2000 children we have had plenty of cases but nothing serious.

Kids can, and do, spread covid but if their parents are vaccinated the risk to the kids and parents is comparatively very low unless there are other factors at play.

Almost 50% of parents aren't double-vaccinated (if we use the general community percentage and overlook younger adults being even lower). This is going to be a mess.....

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Linuxluver

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#2791814 8-Oct-2021 14:28

GV27:

Am I right in thinking the unlinked cases can be interpreted as 'unexpected'?

People seem to be comfortable with these numbers because they 'expected 45 cases linked to household contacts' but they seem to be reporting that separately.

You can isolate the people you expected to be infected. The unknown ones are out running around spreading it.

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#2791816 8-Oct-2021 14:32

GV27:

Am I right in thinking the unlinked cases can be interpreted as 'unexpected'?

People seem to be comfortable with these numbers because they 'expected 45 cases linked to household contacts' but they seem to be reporting that separately.

Possibly unexpected is how I see it. They seem to have found no obvious link to a close contact, but they may find it later, friend of a friend to that close contact, which probably surfaces a few more enquiries later

The expected cases are "safe"-ish. That's the family.

GV27

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#2791819 8-Oct-2021 14:36

tdgeek:

Possibly unexpected is how I see it. They seem to have found no obvious link to a close contact, but they may find it later, friend of a friend to that close contact, which probably surfaces a few more enquiries later

The expected cases are "safe"-ish. That's the family.

I'm just trying to get my head around what they mean when they say 'we expect X many cases in the coming days' and how work that back to linked/unlinked when cases are announced over the next few days.

Batman

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#2791822 8-Oct-2021 14:50

Hilary barry will send you a chocolate fish if you get vaccinated this weekend

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/covid-19-delta-outbreak-tvnzs-hilary-barry-roasts-anti-vaxxers-petition-to-get-her-fired/6U7V5X5HVLS76GIS4RJXA4BUPQ/

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#2791825 8-Oct-2021 15:01

Linuxluver:

That's a separate issue. The kids might not suffer any effects, but they carry the infection and others get it. Nana. Aunty.....etc...etc. Meanwhile......kids do die from it. Little ones can have "pre-existing conditions" that haven't been diagnosed yet.....

This doctor is out of date. What she is saying was true for original covid. It's not true for delta.

A report looking into transmission in ECEs, schools and households in New South Wales amid their Delta outbreak showed an infected child has a 1.8 per cent chance of transmitting the virus to another child in an ECE setting.

Linuxluver

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#2791827 8-Oct-2021 15:04

MikeB4:

This scares me. Victoria calling the military to assist. Covid-19 Australia: Victoria has 1838 new local cases, 5 deaths; NSW has 646 new cases and 11 deaths | Stuff.co.nz . If things go south here our undermanned military is already stretched very thin with the commitment to MIQ duties and other ongoing missions. The NZDF ability to respond further would be limited.

This is where we are heading. Once the delta bug is out of the bag......it only gets worse. My brothers are doctors in Canada. Same story there.

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tdgeek

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#2791828 8-Oct-2021 15:08

GV27:

I'm just trying to get my head around what they mean when they say 'we expect X many cases in the coming days' and how work that back to linked/unlinked when cases are announced over the next few days.

Say I got infected, and 4 people live with me, and 4 others visit me in the infectious period and they also have 4 person families, that's 19 people right there.

My reality is there are only 2 others here, saw a mate yesterday, he and his wife only, so my real time example is just 4 expected cases. All these will be linked as already known, but some of these known contacts forgot about the plumber, so he is unlinked but soon gets linked

Too many numbers lol

EDIT

Ah you mean reconciling the "oh no" cases once they become "phew" cases?

GV27

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#2791833 8-Oct-2021 15:24

tdgeek:

My reality is there are only 2 others here, saw a mate yesterday, he and his wife only, so my real time example is just 4 expected cases. All these will be linked as already known, but some of these known contacts forgot about the plumber, so he is unlinked but soon gets linked

Too many numbers lol

But if anything that's worse, because you might be linked through an LOI that only becomes known after the first person tests positive but after the 2nd - but it can't happen the other way around.

Either way it sounds like the 26 unlinked are definitely not from the pool of people they expected to have cases from when they previously indicated there'd be X many new cases expected.

tdgeek

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#2791835 8-Oct-2021 15:32

GV27:

But if anything that's worse, because you might be linked through an LOI that only becomes known after the first person tests positive but after the 2nd - but it can't happen the other way around.

Either way it sounds like the 26 unlinked are definitely not from the pool of people they expected to have cases from when they previously indicated there'd be X many new cases expected.

Yeah. When they said the other day we expect 45 cases, when they come through we won't knowo if its 45 or 55 or 35, depend if they all get infected, but they would know all the names so they are linked, quickly

So yeah the unlinked are not those, it may be that some are a step or two away from the known cases and it got spread to them, or an LOI

Handle9

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#2791841 8-Oct-2021 15:48

PsychoSmiley: Not tongue in cheek in the slightest. Consider that because of how NSW handled their delta outbreak is because we have it here. AU was looking pretty swell, and then gold standard Gladys screwed the pooch and let it out into the wild when it could have been mitigated by actually doing something.

Don’t kid yourself by thinking NZ is ending up in a different place to NSW. It’s not contained in NZ either.

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