2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2792893 10-Oct-2021 22:52

Oh I'm aware it's holidays, I was just wondering what the chances were they'll be open again by October 18, when they would normally reopen. If we keep getting 60 cases a day though, I'm doubtful.

mattwnz

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#2792894 10-Oct-2021 22:58

Reanalyse:
sbiddle:

So what's everybody's pick on the cabinet decision tomorrow?

While there are plenty of people who would love to see Auckland back at L4 but in light of the path we're now on still see a reasonable chance of the move to phase 2 this week or at least an announcement of a date for the move to that.

As an Aucklander I know what I would like to see, but suppose that we will remain locked down in Level 3 for another week.

Not that the last 8+ weeks seem to have achieved what was needed. So sick of lockdown, even given minor concessions.

It has achieved suppression. There is zero chance imo of things being relaxed much more tomorrow. One of the experts tonight on tvnz thought that restrictions could increase if cases go over 100 a day due to the demand on the health system.

GV27

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#2792953 11-Oct-2021 06:45

mattwnz:

It has achieved suppression. There is zero chance imo of things being relaxed much more tomorrow. One of the experts tonight on tvnz thought that restrictions could increase if cases go over 100 a day due to the demand on the health system.

That's what we got but it wasn't sold to us as that.

GV27

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#2792954 11-Oct-2021 07:07

+1 though to the 'things not being relaxed tomorrow' and we could crack three figures as soon as Weds according to some readings of that chart (hint: my readings, which will be wrong).

Batman

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#2792957 11-Oct-2021 07:21

GV27:

mattwnz:

It has achieved suppression. There is zero chance imo of things being relaxed much more tomorrow. One of the experts tonight on tvnz thought that restrictions could increase if cases go over 100 a day due to the demand on the health system.

That's what we got but it wasn't sold to us as that.

As far as I'm aware we're still on elimination or zero tolerance or whatever the new word is. And we're doing exactly that because I was slammed for saying the govt saying one thing and doing another so I must be wrong. We also bought pills but it's not because of future cases

"This purchase of 60,000 courses is based on the same population basis as the likes of Australia and Singapore, and is not an assumption about the level of Covid we may have in the future."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-government-signs-advanced-purchase-agreement-for-covid-19-treatment-pill/LZIVPET6AHLXPRLQF6KDYP2OBI/

GV27

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#2792958 11-Oct-2021 07:23

Sounds like Katikati is off the hook - person has apparently returned a now negative test for Covid overnight.

quickymart

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#2792961 11-Oct-2021 07:38

How does that work? In all seriousness, didn't they return a positive test at first?

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MaxineN

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#2792962 11-Oct-2021 07:41

quickymart:
How does that work? In all seriousness, didn't they return a positive test at first?

Might have been a false positive initially. These do happen and they're not 100% accurate

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

GV27

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#2792964 11-Oct-2021 07:53

MaxineN:
quickymart:

How does that work? In all seriousness, didn't they return a positive test at first?

Might have been a false positive initially. These do happen and they're not 100% accurate

I'll take a false positive over a false negative any day.

quickymart

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#2792969 11-Oct-2021 08:03

If that's the case, that's a good sign :)

sbiddle

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#2792971 11-Oct-2021 08:14

Reanalyse:

sbiddle:

So what's everybody's pick on the cabinet decision tomorrow?

While there are plenty of people who would love to see Auckland back at L4 but in light of the path we're now on still see a reasonable chance of the move to phase 2 this week or at least an announcement of a date for the move to that.

As an Aucklander I know what I would like to see, but suppose that we will remain locked down in Level 3 for another week.

Not that the last 8+ weeks seem to have achieved what was needed. So sick of lockdown, even given minor concessions.

Phase 2 is still level 3.

Fred99

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#2792973 11-Oct-2021 08:32

MaxineN:
quickymart:

How does that work? In all seriousness, didn't they return a positive test at first?

Might have been a false positive initially. These do happen and they're not 100% accurate

The person had been fully vaccinated and was being regularly tested.

False positives aren't common at all with PCR. They'd already stated that the positive was weak.

Most likely they got infected, the vaccine did what it was supposed to do suppressing the infection, there was "enough" viral replication for the RNA to be picked up by PCR, they didn't get sick. They may not have been infectious - the PCR test can't tell whether the RNA is from viable ("live") virus or from inactivated ("dead") viral material after the persons immune system killed it.

This is why people test positive using PCR sometimes for many weeks after they've recovered from an infection, including why the wastewater tests sometimes pick up viral RNA from recovered patients who'd been released from MIQ.

Fred99

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#2792981 11-Oct-2021 09:03

Batman:

"This purchase of 60,000 courses is based on the same population basis as the likes of Australia and Singapore, and is not an assumption about the level of Covid we may have in the future."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-government-signs-advanced-purchase-agreement-for-covid-19-treatment-pill/LZIVPET6AHLXPRLQF6KDYP2OBI/

Good.

https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-ridgebacks-investigational-oral-antiviral-molnupiravir-reduced-the-risk-of-hospitalization-or-death-by-approximately-50-percent-compared-to-placebo-for-patients-with-mild-or-moderat/

In anticipation of the results from MOVe-OUT, Merck has been producing molnupiravir at risk. Merck expects to produce 10 million courses of treatment by the end of 2021, with more doses expected to be produced in 2022.

...

As part of its commitment to widespread global access, Merck previously announced that the company has entered into non-exclusive voluntary licensing agreements for molnupiravir with established generic manufacturers to accelerate availability of molnupiravir in more than 100 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) following approvals or emergency authorization by local regulatory agencies.

Yet one more reason to maintain a suppression strategy for as long as possible.

JPNZ

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#2792992 11-Oct-2021 09:35

Reanalyse:

As an Aucklander I know what I would like to see, but suppose that we will remain locked down in Level 3 for another week.

Not that the last 8+ weeks seem to have achieved what was needed. So sick of lockdown, even given minor concessions.

I thought it was already clear that Auckland will be in Level 3, Phase/Stage whatever until the end of November? At least I remember Bloomfield stating that it would take that long to move between phases/stages of L3.

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GV27

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#2793006 11-Oct-2021 09:46

JPNZ:

I thought it was already clear that Auckland will be in Level 3, Phase/Stage whatever until the end of November? At least I remember Bloomfield stating that it would take that long to move between phases/stages of L3.

Not in as much as anyone has said directly "You'll be in Level 3 until early December at a minimum".

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