2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2794157 12-Oct-2021 18:16

TeaLeaf:

Yep 7-14days, which coincides with the rapid increase of daily communal cases. More worrying now is the unlinked case rise, which could be a sign of the strain the tracers are under.

Yes it was always going to be a gamble, but I think given we had put in such a big effort, anoher ~2 weeks to give them time to get it well and truly under control was well worth it at that stage. The most grumblings we were seeing in the new was from the SI over not being able to have more than 100 patrons in a pub etc.

Im not 'bagging' anyone as such, humans make mistakes, hopefully we learn from them. But the buck does end at the Govt and ultimately the PM. They do need to be held accountable for mistakes as they should for wins. That is why they get the $. I think the majority of non govt folk are simply doing their best, outside the flouters.

I agree the flouters for all of us are the most distressing part of being in lockdown. But many of those would have not occured in lvl 4 (or 3.5 due to flouters).

Seriously, Telethons? Yeah, dont you remember them? A fun packed weekend on the TV. Kids would stay up as late as their eyes would allow etc. I hope you werent one of the kids made to go to bed at 8pm :-( But yes the push you were talking about is dubbed the vaxathon

NZ staging vaxathon on Super Saturday (yahoo.com)

You cannot get under control if the public dont comply. A NZ Govt (governed by Bill of Rights) cannot force it under control, this is not PRNK. It doesn't end at the Govt or PM or MoH. if you let the sheep run wild, then guess what? They run wild

Thats why this thread has become unwieldy. We all know that if you rob a bank, you will do time. But when the rule is stay home stay safe, and you dont, its fine, blame someone else . The pity is the MANY that did do their bit.

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#2794163 12-Oct-2021 18:25

tdgeek:

And if more go the 3 week route and not the 8 week route, much faster. I had a choice of both, Im in level 2 I still chose 3 weeks.

It was 8 weeks? I thought was always 3 or 6. Still should be a personal choice though, not a pressured to get it earlier. Especially if that 2nd dose doesnt make any difference time wise to the total outcome.

What is good is the numbers booked for 1st vax is rising. Currently 84%. What is impressive is the eligibility booked for 2nd dose (or already recieved) is 75% while actual double dosed is 58%. Get that 75% to mid 80s and we might have a good chance of 90% before xmas.

Are we still going by somewhere around 90% or has the govt stated a number yet? Possibly were still sitting on the fence when first announced the stages without numbers, hoping somehow we would manage to control the outbreak at the same time as allowing people more freedoms. So close that 2nd dose gets to 90% the more likely they will state a number, obviously this will change should the younger audience vax be introduced.

Disagree, flouting or controlling imposed rules are always 100% back to the Govt. i get you want to blame the flouters. The Govt could have controlled the road use better, it could have had more policing of the roads (small diversions of police force from elsewhere), proof of use for said roads (ie a booking system for accessing groceries and medication within your allowed time slot), they could have introduced much heavier fines for breaking said rules. That is the job of the Govt legislation. Doing such things does not break any acts I am aware of. Would be interested if there is an act for times of civil emergency and or war though?

But regardless, its over and done with, the unlinked cases are so high now, they only have a short window on whether they turn back or not, which I highly doubt they will, Auck bought them the time they should have been using much much earlier for things like ICU demand (the list is endless on what we will need changed). So no point blaming flouters now, the roads are so busy you couldnt pick a flouter outa lol. ;-p

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#2794188 12-Oct-2021 18:38

TeaLeaf:

It was 8 weeks? I thought was always 3 or 6. Still should be a personal choice though, not a pressured to get it earlier. Especially if that 2nd dose doesnt make any difference time wise to the total outcome.

What is good is the numbers booked for 1st vax is rising. Currently 84%. What is impressive is the eligibility booked for 2nd dose (or already recieved) is 75% while actual double dosed is 58%. Get that 75% to mid 80s and we might have a good chance of 90% before xmas.

Are we still going by somewhere around 90% or has the govt stated a number yet? Possibly were still sitting on the fence when first announced the stages without numbers, hoping somehow we would manage to control the outbreak at the same time as allowing people more freedoms. So close that 2nd dose gets to 90% the more likely they will state a number, obviously this will change should the younger audience vax be introduced.

8 weeks is the 6 week gap as that is better (jury is out on that as to how much better) plus 2 weeks to take effect. So if you feel you may be the next area that it spreads to, 8 weeks matters.

Sitting on the fence? 90+% is a number

Its a race. You have the comparatively low numbers of cases. You also have flouters. And people not getting tested. So no more freedoms unless they pull finger and get vaccinated. Then when the Vaccine Cert goes on stream and some can't get access to get drunk, go to www.stuff.co.nz or www.newshub.co.nz to read all about it as that will be news not the vax numbers.

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#2794191 12-Oct-2021 18:53

tdgeek:

8 weeks is the 6 week gap as that is better (jury is out on that as to how much better) plus 2 weeks to take effect. So if you feel you may be the next area that it spreads to, 8 weeks matters.

Sitting on the fence? 90+% is a number

Its a race. You have the comparatively low numbers of cases. You also have flouters. And people not getting tested. So no more freedoms unless they pull finger and get vaccinated. Then when the Vaccine Cert goes on stream and some can't get access to get drunk, go to www.stuff.co.nz or www.newshub.co.nz to read all about it as that will be news not the vax numbers.

You sound like you are gaslighting me?

Sorry "8 weeks is the 6 week gap as that is better", are you saying you meant 6 weeks. there were only 2 options. As for the jury on vax dose spread, Im very aware of these and other vax's.

First you are sayng Govt cant take away freedoms due to xyz act, next you are saying "no more freedoms". Confused as they conflicting.

Im also well aware of the vax cert and the news.

I think you just need to breath, this isn't the end of the world :-). In the mean time, relax. Doesnt do us any good getting emotionally upset by what we can't control.

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#2794197 12-Oct-2021 19:16

TeaLeaf:

tdgeek:

8 weeks is the 6 week gap as that is better (jury is out on that as to how much better) plus 2 weeks to take effect. So if you feel you may be the next area that it spreads to, 8 weeks matters.

Sitting on the fence? 90+% is a number

Its a race. You have the comparatively low numbers of cases. You also have flouters. And people not getting tested. So no more freedoms unless they pull finger and get vaccinated. Then when the Vaccine Cert goes on stream and some can't get access to get drunk, go to www.stuff.co.nz or www.newshub.co.nz to read all about it as that will be news not the vax numbers.

You sound like you are gaslighting me?

Sorry "8 weeks is the 6 week gap as that is better", are you saying you meant 6 weeks. there were only 2 options. As for the jury on vax dose spread, Im very aware of these and other vax's.

First you are sayng Govt cant take away freedoms due to xyz act, next you are saying "no more freedoms". Confused as they conflicting.

Im also well aware of the vax cert and the news.

I think you just need to breath, this isn't the end of the world :-). In the mean time, relax. Doesnt do us any good getting emotionally upset by what we can't control.

8 weeks is the 6 week gap as that is better is quite clear.

No Im not gaslighting you

I never said Govt cant take away freedoms, I said No more freedoms. Which is what happens when flouters flout and cases rise.

Im breathing well but thanks. There is a pandemic on, but this thread is becoming sensationalist. Some say protect the SI and lock out AKL. Others say its endemic let AKL go to L2. So its all based (largely) on personal desire and less on reality. To me the reality is quite clear what we are doing, but then I hear we have no plan.

But many seem to have quick fixes, for what ever reason or skillset. Getting time to bow out here, its GZ not Fox

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#2794235 12-Oct-2021 19:45

For anybody interested in the possible reason for the disparity of full immune efficacy vs Delta between Moderna and Pfizer (both still offer extremely good results vs Delta for severe illness and hospitilisation as posted by Batman earlier. Vaccines save lives and prevent many incidences of long covid)

There are 2 different issues here, firstly actual efficacy at peak after full doses required and secondly efficacy wane (efficacy of full immunity dropping over time). The first I heard of either was in an ABC coronocast where he mentioned pfizer slipping 20% per month, dropping to 36%, Im not sure which study that was but Im pretty sure it would have been done in relation to Alpha not Delta (I will try to find the source if its linked in the podcasts details)

Regardless, it seems there is a big difference between Moderna and Delta for the first issue, efficacy at peak after fully vccinated. Where mayo clinic study (yet to be peer reviewed), states 76% for Moderna and 42% for Pfizer, vs Delta.

Zdogg of YT notoriety was the first I saw to offer a theory on why this may occur, he suggested the viral load.

Anyway, this more recent article webmd article suggests the same;

"The differences could be explained by the higher amount of active ingredient in the Moderna vaccine, the researchers wrote. The Moderna vaccine has 100 micrograms of active ingredient, as compared with 30 micrograms in the Pfizer vaccine."
Moderna’s Vaccine Creates Twice as Many Antibodies as Pfizer’s Vaccine: Study (webmd.com)

A couple of my questions/thoughts.;
Will this impact Pfizers future developments?
Will this impact who NZ chooses to use for their booster? (both being mRNA vaxs)
How soon given both efficacy wane and outright efficacy vs delta should we expect to see a booster roll out for those on the frontline?

Clearly as stated this does not impact the efficacy of the pfizer vax against extreme illness/hospitilisation. That cannot be under stated. Combine that with the extreme efficacy of masks at reducing viral load (as per the Stanford - Bangladesh mask study), I personally feel very confident with pfizer + a mask so that if I did get breakthrough infection, A. my body is still very well trained on how to deal with the virus B. My mask hopefully reduces any potential breakthrough illness to a level Im expecting will easily be handled by A. Of course there are always exceptions to the rule. Surgical masks reduce COVID-19 spread, large-scale study shows | News Center | Stanford Medicine

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#2794237 12-Oct-2021 19:49

Govt announces telethon vaxathon. Key says it was his idea:

NZHerald: Sir John Key says he is "delighted" to hear the Government announce a "vaxathon" as part of the Super Saturday vaccination drive, an idea he raised in August.

I would not be so quick to claim that one. Anything is better than nothing. Maybe it's a good idea to get all the sports and entertainment stars out anyway.

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#2794239 12-Oct-2021 19:53

On the vaccine timings, I know that my significant other got proactively contacted to book her 2nd appointment earlier as she had her vaccination during the “push out 2nd appointment out” phase. She opted to keep her appointment as is and is getting the 2nd shot this week.

Myself - I got vaccinated at the earliest opportunity well before the outbreak and opted for the minimum gap which was 21 days.

Will it make a difference between the two options? Unsure. But I know this - having the vaccine and its second shot is better than not having it at all. Call me a simpleton but that’s how I look at it.

I have also requested and received my PDF vaccine certificate (which I’ll be sharing my with employer and schools (when volunteering)). Fairly standard but signature definitely looks like a poor copy and paste job.

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TeaLeaf

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#2794255 12-Oct-2021 20:28

cokemaster:

Will it make a difference between the two options? Unsure. But I know this - having the vaccine and its second shot is better than not having it at all. Call me a simpleton but that’s how I look at it.

Not simpleton at all, you have a right to know how it effects your body. There is evidence for certain time frames being optimal, depending on who you speak to or read.

Im with you, it seems logical, especially given some places as per that webmd link I just made, 3 weeks is considered the normal.

I think the most important thing is for people to not stop using masks just because they got Vaxxd. Im not seeing this spelt out clearly enough by the Govt. That Stanford-Mask study is worth a read. But the basics are, less viral load, less serious infection. Obviously that is not always the rule, but its what Dr Ghandi has been saying for ages and she is the head of one of the largest infectious disease centres in the world.

If you are young (sub 40 lets says, so it doesnt make me feel as old lol), you are in an even better place with a vax, a mask and under ~35yo, thats the icing bro.

gzt: Govt announces telethon vaxathon. Key says it was his idea:
I would not be so quick to claim that one. Anything is better than nothing. Maybe it's a good idea to get all the sports and entertainment stars out anyway.

I cringed at the thought of celebrities on TV takin pledges for donations to watch other celebrities do something like 10 push ups. Oh NZ, how stuck in the early 80s lol. I couldnt name a NZ TV celebrity Im so out of touch with scheduled TV.

But if it gets people in and vaxxd, so be it.

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#2794260 12-Oct-2021 20:38

tdgeek:

8 weeks is the 6 week gap as that is better is quite clear.

Which is what happens when flouters flout and cases rise.

Getting time to bow out here, its GZ not Fox

Gotcha, sorry just the grammar through me off first time around. I didnt know what you meant exactly.

Yes, well, I think its beyond the flouters now. The real issue was Auckland needed to have been targetting certain areas door to door, not in a fear driven narrative, just so people have the facts, and if possible offer to have a front liner come and given vaccines if they wanted. The flouters you are referring to, nobody was going to stop them outside a $20k fine or such.

Nobody is an expert on here td, we all just working through it together. your opinion is as valid as anybody elses, whether they agree with you or not. :-)

New Zealand government’s pivot from Covid elimination ‘surprised’ top health experts (msn.com)

No surprise here, the Govt did exactly the same during the canabis referendum, completely ignored the countries leading experts and scientists. This is where the Auckland Uni Professor recentily stating the Govt (and PM) needs to get back to its day job (passing legislation) and rely upon its team of experts to convey the right step forward (not just Bloomfield clearly). It does seem like they are in political mode now. Thats all I will say on it, as we do not want to get side tracked with such matters :-)

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#2794268 12-Oct-2021 20:53

My Covid Record is live now and not in beta anymore.

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#2794270 12-Oct-2021 20:57

Taken away the individual jab details

MileHighKiwi

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#2794271 12-Oct-2021 20:57

cokemaster: On the vaccine timings, I know that my significant other got proactively contacted to book her 2nd appointment earlier as she had her vaccination during the “push out 2nd appointment out” phase. She opted to keep her appointment as is and is getting the 2nd shot this week.

Myself - I got vaccinated at the earliest opportunity well before the outbreak and opted for the minimum gap which was 21 days

That's interesting about proactive contact. Ive heard many different experiences about it. Karori Medical Centre proactively contacted a couple of colleagues early on for example.

I phoned the covid line when Auckland was kicking off to query when +40's can book and was told I'm group 3 and should have been contacted by my DHB several weeks ago, but I heard nothing from them at all, or my GP. I'm not entirely sure how I am group 3 either. Asthma?

I get my 2nd on Thursday, a 6 week gap as I was in the same stage as your partner, but no one has offered me an earlier one. My wife got her 2nd yesterday, 3 week gap. The messaging around the gaps hasn't been clear. I'm not sure if it was extended from 3 to 6 to enlarge the cohort or to improve efficacy? But it's now back at 3 apparantly.

Im just happy to get it done and if I need a booster in 6/12 months it's not the end of the world.

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#2794273 12-Oct-2021 21:06

Here we go, leap of faith by the Govt will soon have the torch shined upon it.

What I don't get is, why would we be accepting passengerrs from countries with high Covid-19 numbers? And define high covid numbers, do they mean high numbers and low vax? Because I doubt, well at least I HOPE, the Govt will not be accepting arrivals from low vaxxd nations?

But yeah, 1000+ cases weekly. 30 hospitalisations with 90% vax is sobering, given how unlikely 90% in the region seems and how over stretched anybody who knows the hospital already is. But of course the Govt has taken that into consideration and must have planned for a lot more staff and ICU facilities, right...

'Could get totally out of control': Covid-19 modelling paints worrying picture for South Auckland

MileHighKiwi: can book and was told I'm group 3 and should have been contacted by my DHB several weeks ago, but I heard nothing from them at all, or my GP. I'm not entirely sure how I am group 3 either. Asthma?

Conversely Im definitely group 3 and heard nothing at all. I actually waited until everybody was open, group 5? I get my 2nd on the weekend. 6 weeks apart.

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#2794274 12-Oct-2021 21:08

cokemaster: I have also requested and received my PDF vaccine certificate

How did you do this? As we were under level 4 when I got my first injection and level 3 for my second one, they said they weren't doing them at that time. Do they send them to you afterwards?

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