2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2794684 13-Oct-2021 18:34

Air New Zealand getting in on act too, get jabbed on a 787 - https://www.facebook.com/events/418465619851464

Only downside is the plane won't be moving :(

tdgeek

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#2794689 13-Oct-2021 18:49

KrazyKid:

I'm not sure why they haven't spelt this out clearly.
They don't want to scare people, or maybe don't feel it is good to be locked into a plan yet??

Its hard to lock into a plan. Then cases drop a lot, or they don't. Its very much a moving target

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#2794690 13-Oct-2021 18:54

trig42:

Just wish the government would actually commit to something, and tell us what is going on. Or, do they genuinely not know? They are keeping us in the dark to some extent, which I don't think they did last year. They can see now we are heading to widespread Covid in Auckland - it's obvious R is over 1. They've ruled out L4.

Meanwhile, a city waits, most of whom are vaccinated and the vast vast majority have done exactly the right thing for 8 weeks.

Last year it was pretty new, and Alpha, so had some predictability. They could put a plan forward, that would be a shot in the dark at best. If anyone wants certainty, forget it. If some want to open up tomorrow, that's an option, not one that I would agree with, nor would Level 3 forever. Its a race to get vaccinated as this outbreak like the many WORSE ones overseas are an epidemic of the unvaccinated.

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#2794729 13-Oct-2021 20:35

Just got a reluctant and vulnerable good friend with first vaccination.
It was a effort to deal with every new bit of social media crap, get them to talk with their doctor finally.
Almost scuppered by 3rd dose talk, lets take things one step at a time, waiting for perfect vaccine nope.

Vaccination center was empty, which was great for them, totally the wrong person for weekend razzmatazz, so no goodie bag.

Vaccination expert disgusted by Waikato mayor's no-Pfizer stance
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300429069/vaccination-expert-disgusted-by-waikato-mayors-nopfizer-stance

First a reluctant scanner, and now throwing doubt on a vaccine with over a Billion shots with good safety data.
Nothing like leadership from those in leadership positions.

Well its getting closer all the time and I expect Hospitals in her area will be quickly in the crap when it arrives.

Time waits for no one. Rolling Stones
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsH2In5r2sM

gzt

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#2794759 13-Oct-2021 21:06

Novavax is getting serious consideration as a booster apparently:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126335147/covid19-discussions-on-novavax-vaccine-booster-are-ongoing-chris-hipkins-says

quickymart

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#2794804 13-Oct-2021 21:53

ezbee:

Just got a reluctant and vulnerable good friend with first vaccination.
It was a effort to deal with every new bit of social media crap, get them to talk with their doctor finally.

Time waits for no one. Rolling Stones
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsH2In5r2sM

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/126651588/covid19-how-to-have-a-conversation-with-someone-hesitant-to-get-vaccinated

^ some good tips in there for talking to people who are hesitant.

Also re the Rolling Stones, how about Tadpole? Time Waits for no Man? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-x1X-iZ85eU (memories! Auckland central in 2000.)

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Scott3

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#2794835 13-Oct-2021 23:49

I have been really enjoying the extra freedoms of altert level 3 step 1 in Auckland.

Being able to drive out to the west coast beaches, and have a couple of playdates for my child have had dramatically improved my quality of life.

Did get pinned by the app today though (screenshot in the other covid-19 thread), case visited the same supermarket as me last week.

I was expecting rising case numbers like we are currently getting ever since the decision to move auckland to level 3. Still scary to watch... typically more than 50% of cases infectious in the community each day... Also I was expecting Victoria to be well past it's peak by now, following NSW's trajectory. So very scary to see several days of 1500+ cases in victoria.

Good news is that NZ has manged to reverse the slid in terms of daily first dose vaccination numbers.

Interesting modeling on case numbers here:

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html

I don't really get the complaints here about the lack of a plan. Personally I don't see a heap of value in one. Ultimately what we are trying to do now is pretty reactive to case numbers:

Stall / slow the outbreak for as long as we can, to buy time for vaccination, and to delay the peak until summer (when responsibility illness and hospital load is typically low). - While allowing some activity to limit the economic and social costs.
As vaccination numbers rise (and if case numbers are still in hand), gently lift restrictions, but allow 10 - 14 days after each change to check the impact of the prior change on case number. - Keep case numbers low enough to not overload hospitals.
Keep covid-19 regionally contained for as long as possible, meaning that non impacted regions don't have to carry the health costs, and can enjoy level 2 life.

In terms of the bigger picture stuff. Eventually covid-19 is going to spread all over the country, once that happens we can take regional borders down.

Fairly soon we are going to run out of quarantine isolation hotel space for all the positive cases, so will need to start isolating cases at home. Once this happens it is logical we start allowing widespread home isolation for tested & vaccinated international arrivals (Lots of detail to be worked out though).

Basically that is out path to rejoin the rest of the world. Next 3 months are going to suck though.... No chance Auckland goes below level 2, and likely it will spend much of that time at level 3.

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#2794836 13-Oct-2021 23:56

vaccinations going well in certain camps https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126671825/covid19-ninety-per-cent-of-all-district-health-board-staff-have-at-least-one-jab

neb

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#2794841 14-Oct-2021 00:11

Scott3:
Interesting modeling on case numbers here:

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html

Just wanted to add a +1 for that for people who haven't had a look yet, that's some really good data visualisation of the current situations and possible future outcomes.

Handle9

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#2794843 14-Oct-2021 00:21

Scott3:
I don't really get the complaints here about the lack of a plan. Personally I don't see a heap of value in one. Ultimately what we are trying to do now is pretty reactive to case numbers:

Uncertainty is crippling, especially when you feel you have no control about when and how things will change. While I agree that it is impossible to have a plan set in stone it’s pretty apparent what is happening with case numbers and vaccinations. This should enable a clearer road map.

Giving people a much clearer sense of what vaccination and hospitalisation levels will trigger changes gives a much greater feeling of control over the outcome. It also incentivises behaviour around vaccination and obeying restrictions as it links individuals behaviour to what they will experience regarding restrictions.

I was very cynical about NSW plans for opening up and don’t agree with many of the settings but it’s been very successful in driving behaviours around vaccination.

Daynger

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#2794847 14-Oct-2021 00:29

I have just his evening had the feeling that we are being thrown to the wolves a bit with the current situation after reading this.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300429446/covid19-govt-not-looking-at-circuit-breaker-lockdown-as-auckland-outbreak-grows

So they are openly stating cases will rise and sharply now, they are expecting hundreds of cases a day, which leads to a percentage of hospitalizations each day and ultimately deaths.

Completely ruling out another level 4 is not a good move IMO, what if numbers get really bad, what if the hospitals that are under the pump now are flooded with cases.

Its like watching a slow motion car crash.

I still havnt seen anything about once we open up too, will the locations of interest still ping away and places have to close for cleaning, staff isolate, visitors isolate?

Or will it be more a case of all of that sort of thing just gets thrown out and we have cases visit somewhere and nothing is done, vaccination, masks and distancing are the only protections?

I the government is in a damned if they do damned if they dont situation, but it feels like they have ultimately just given up.

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Batman

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#2794856 14-Oct-2021 06:12

I won't worry about this. They've been saying one thing and doing something else. They don't know what the plan is. Suddenly they know this for sure, I don't think so. Don't read too much into this.

Batman

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#2794857 14-Oct-2021 06:16

This explains why they're so confident about no circuit breaker needed. They are expecting a maximum of 43 ICU patients

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-delta-outbreak-government-to-unveil-preparedness-of-health-system-for-delta/SA5R5MUO3ZNTGRVAFT4M7SIIWY/

(bearing in mind that all the older members of the public who have succumbed were not admitted to ICU)

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#2794858 14-Oct-2021 06:58

Daynger:

I the government is in a damned if they do damned if they dont situation, but it feels like they have ultimately just given up.

Or perhaps this is the next phase: having 59% of people fully vaccinated now and working hard to get more jabs on arms.

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#2794890 14-Oct-2021 07:38

Batman:

vaccinations going well in certain camps https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126671825/covid19-ninety-per-cent-of-all-district-health-board-staff-have-at-least-one-jab

Sorry to be a party-pooper but I would ask why, given that health is their core business, do they still have 10% unvaccinated! 99.5% of them would have had ample opportunity to at least have had their first jab by now.

Sometimes I use big words I don't always fully understand in an effort to make myself sound more photosynthesis.

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