2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2795422 14-Oct-2021 17:28

Teachers panic

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126669158/tv-scientist-nanogirl-inundated-with-vaccine-questions-from-petrified-teachers

Technofreak

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#2795425 14-Oct-2021 17:35

mattwnz:

MileHighKiwi:

A circuit breaker won't be applied to Auckland because of the political fall out. Anyone who disagrees with that is naive. That doesn't mean places like Wellington can't go to 3, which I expect soon, but I don't see Auckland going back now, the Govt has started down a path and IMO won't turn back - there simply won't be enough buy in this time.

That is why the government shouldn't be now handling this, as it now shouldn't' be political IMO. Many experts seem to be wanting Auckland to do a circuit breaker.

We should have done it like Ireland did it. They ran a bipartisan approach which worked very well by all accounts. Kept the politics right out of it. They had a National Public Health Emergency Team in charge of fighting the pandemic. While initially Ireland didn't look to have done a good job they are now ranked among the top in the world for their handling of the pandemic.

I think it's going to be a very difficult task for our government to gracefully back out of handling the pandemic and hand it over to a panel of experts, (ala Ireland) that's assuming they even wanted to do down this path.

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Buster

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#2795428 14-Oct-2021 17:46

The demographic people are hinting at have always been very distrusting of anything Government. I am sure there is a very effective bush telegraph that is alive and well. When the powers at be within this demographic want something to happen, it will happen. I think it has already started (finally).

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#2795429 14-Oct-2021 17:47

mattwnz:
That is why the government shouldn't be now handling this, as it now shouldn't' be political IMO. Many experts seem to be wanting Auckland to do a circuit breaker.

That would be very amusing to watch. After a week of standups they’d all be running back to their offices and going home.

We elect politicians to make these decisions, it is quite literally their job.

MileHighKiwi

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#2795436 14-Oct-2021 17:53

wellygary:
MileHighKiwi:

That doesn't mean places like Wellington can't go to 3, which I expect soon, but I don't see Auckland going back now, the Govt has started down a path and IMO won't turn back - there simply won't be enough buy in this time.

If it is gonna happen it will be in the next week, the Vax rates in Wellington are getting really good,

We went from 6 areas 95%+ first to 20 areas in the past week, and in those areas 2nd doses went from 58% to 72%... I would expect many to hit 90% double dosed inside 2 weeks....

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/capital_and_coast_sa2_uptake_map_20211013_0.pdf

National rawdata by areas is here

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/uptake_sa2_dhb_website_20211013_0.xlsx

This is really promising for WGTN. My wife and I got 2nd jabs today in Upper Hutt and the centre was really busy, but moving through the queue quickly.

Buster

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#2795437 14-Oct-2021 17:54

Things aren't bad enough for a circuit breaker to work. When things are actually really grim that will work a little bit, in a positive way.

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GV27

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#2795439 14-Oct-2021 17:59

Buster: Things aren't bad enough for a circuit breaker to work. When things are actually really grim that will work a little bit, in a positive way.

We are seeing the numbers from a week ago, effectively.

Are they going to be bad enough a week from now (e.g. now?) to warrant it?

I think that's what some of the modelers are trying to get at.

cruxis

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#2795444 14-Oct-2021 18:03

The demographic people who are suggesting are hard to reach, will most likely get vaxed if you chuck $100 cash in as well, as no questions asked. Just sayin.

Buster

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#2795446 14-Oct-2021 18:07

GV27:
Buster: Things aren't bad enough for a circuit breaker to work. When things are actually really grim that will work a little bit, in a positive way.

We are seeing the numbers from a week ago, effectively.

Are they going to be bad enough a week from now (e.g. now?) to warrant it?

I think that's what some of the modelers are trying to get at.

I think it will get there really fast when it changes trajectory. May not have much warning or long to wait.

Sensible people are vaccinated and will stay out of the way as best they can.

ezbee

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#2795448 14-Oct-2021 18:12

Batman: Teachers panic

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126669158/tv-scientist-nanogirl-inundated-with-vaccine-questions-from-petrified-teachers

Batman

But are they really Teachers ? Edit ( Too quick on draw apparently they were )
I duck into Auckland talkback for short moments of madness.
See what nuttiness is top of the bill, just to remind my self who got Auckland into this mess.
Often there is a claim to be all sorts of things they obviously are not, given gaps in their knowledge.

The talking points seem to follow the same script.
Still waiting to become my own magnetic tool holder.

EDIT -- ( Ok looks like this was a seminar for Teachers, hopefully most just wanted to bump up
their knowledge to help with their hesitant relatives etc,
If its truly their own PANIC we are stuffed )

Sure some will be, but hopefully making it through Teacher training needs some sort of mental acuity ?

TeaLeaf

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#2795450 14-Oct-2021 18:13

Technofreak:

I think it's going to be a very difficult task for our government to gracefully back out of handling the pandemic and hand it over to a panel of experts, (ala Ireland) that's assuming they even wanted to do down this path.

And there lies the problem, with some of their own panel of experts blind sided by level 3, I think that says enough of people not qualified to make the decisions, making the decisions, of which now have us in deep trouble which will soon boil over.

I agree, a non govt and parliamentary entity would have been brilliant. Who knows what that might spur on, a tax based medical system/fund that the Govt cant touch, so that our actual economy is a real one, not hyper inflated by costs that are simply reflected in the quality of life in NZ. Heaven forbid.

Either way, Hipkins needs to pull the britches up and start aligning some of these wishy washy phases, with the statistical models, and subsequent reforms to public health which they have been planning for nearly 2 years now (they have, been, planning all along, havnt they?) ie tell the people the truth on what is planned to handle the upcoming overflowing hospitals etc?

To say this is not political is to simply miss the point imo, the point is about action, if the lvl 3 decision was purely political, then it has most definitely back fired and whether its in the best interest of NZ or not, I highly doubt they will want to look weak.

So, being strong, what is needed now is defined plans made available to the public, on how we will handle the pandemic once endemic (which it is on the cusp of)

GV27:

Are they going to be bad enough a week from now (e.g. now?) to warrant it?

I think that's what some of the modelers are trying to get at.

yep, modelers, virology community (including some of the govt), its all falling on deaf ears.

I do not know what is more exciting, the pandemic fall out, or watching some over inflated egos crushed.

Either way, I will have a crude stab at guessing numbers, modelling states, Middlemore 1400 cases, 45hosp beds per week at 80% vax. That is one of 7 (but you can prob wrap up the islands into auckland central as a dampner for the difference between 80 and 90% vax) 6 regions in Auckland. 45x6 = 270 beds per week, how long does it it take to clear a bed? Id imagine regardless much like the UK, there will be a massive waiting system for hospitlisation. Not sure how else its meant to work, without any answers from the Govt. 90% would see 2/3 that. 95% would be exponential, not a math whizz, but the point is, without a game plan, it looks miserable and thats just Auck.

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mattwnz

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#2795453 14-Oct-2021 18:15

Buster:

I think it will get there really fast when it changes trajectory. May not have much warning or long to wait.

Sensible people are vaccinated and will stay out of the way as best they can.

They say they are expecting to see a doubling of cases over the next 14 days. But isn't level 3 supposed to be trying to get the R0 under 1? https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/not-the-time-for-complacency-robertson-urges-aucklanders-to-stick-to-rules-after-large-number-of-cases-reported-from-indoor-gatherings/ar-AAPuHdI?ocid=msedgntp

Then they have said that most cases are being caused by indoor gatherings. What are these gatherings and are any planned ones? Surely neighbors are seeing these occurring, why aren't they reporting them?

Oblivian

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#2795455 14-Oct-2021 18:19

People don't tend to dob in people they're doing themselves

Stones in glasshouse and all that.

TeaLeaf

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#2795460 14-Oct-2021 18:25

Oblivian: People don't tend to dob in people they're doing themselves

Stones in glasshouse and all that.

Especially in suburbs where it could get you stabbed or worse.

NZ as a whole is an anti nark type culture. Which im all for, if it doesnt impact other people and especially their health.

Speaking of which, neighbours daughter lives in Auck central, and in holidays from uni is travelling up and staying. is that within the extended family rules? Should have dobbed them in before those extended rules were created. My other neighbour has friends over, but how do i know who is extended family and who isnt?

Batman

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#2795463 14-Oct-2021 18:27

ezbee:

Batman: Teachers panic

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126669158/tv-scientist-nanogirl-inundated-with-vaccine-questions-from-petrified-teachers

Batman

But are they really Teachers ? Edit ( Too quick on draw apparently they were )
I duck into Auckland talkback for short moments of madness.
See what nuttiness is top of the bill, just to remind my self who got Auckland into this mess.
Often there is a claim to be all sorts of things they obviously are not, given gaps in their knowledge.

The talking points seem to follow the same script.
Still waiting to become my own magnetic tool holder.

EDIT -- ( Ok looks like this was a seminar for Teachers, hopefully most just wanted to bump up
their knowledge to help with their hesitant relatives etc,
If its truly their own PANIC we are stuffed )

Sure some will be, but hopefully making it through Teacher training needs some sort of mental acuity ?

it shows that people are confused, doesn't matter how educated or uneducated.

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