2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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476 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2797090 18-Oct-2021 13:56

Circuit breaker is pointless. 90% of eligible people in Auckland have had the first dose, almost 70% double vaccinated.
The country will have to be like every other country (except Taiwan) and start to live with covid.
A snap level 4 will cause outrage in Auckland and will do more harm than good.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2797094 18-Oct-2021 14:03

GV27:

The question is, would more people follow L4 rules for a short, defined period or is compliance with L3 for an indefinite period of time going to wane to the point where we might be in a functional L2?

I personally think most ppl are already treating lvl3 as 2 and were even without concessions, a holiday as such. Except some people were severely financially disadvantaged (although Ive been in that situation for 7 years, so Ive become a little disinterested in the govt acting on social issues)

There was considerably more compliance in lvl4, I couldnt even start to guess how much, but exponentially.

The problem with lvl4, was as TDgeek points out, ordinary people flouting, the issue there though, was more ignorance rather than outright flouting. Again its a cultural divide, where people making decisions, simply do not understand the cultural differences between themselves and those that may not even speak much english, let alone watch TV and such. Obviously you would hope the younger generation would inform them of the facts, but with so much disinfo, and family being such a big part of their lives, especially 10+ to a house, I think the Govt simply misunderstood the cultural divide. I hope they didnt ignore it, but given they were aware of the demos 2 weeks into lvl4, it should have been pretty flappn obvious.

It was never that complicated a fix, the problem was simply inaction. I truly believe that is due to ruling from a far and not understanding the landscape, rather than arrogance (at least I like to believe ignorance over arrogance).

tdgeek

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#2797096 18-Oct-2021 14:03

GV27:

The question is, would more people follow L4 rules for a short, defined period or is compliance with L3 for an indefinite period of time going to wane to the point where we might be in a functional L2?

I don't see how. You would, I would, but we would anyway. Its not like these flouters are hardened criminals, they seem to be highly social larger families and neighbours. For whatever reason they don't have the same need to fight Covid

TeaLeaf

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#2797099 18-Oct-2021 14:08

itey: Circuit breaker is pointless. 90% of eligible people in Auckland have had the first dose, almost 70% double vaccinated.

It certainly is if they are not going to take any action during it.

Either do "something" or open NZ up now, I believe this Govt has shown a lack of courage of conviction during the last election, I do not see them doing any different this one (ie know defined targets during the last minute "stages" concept).

So given that, I think they will do the opposite of what you and I say and will continue to let Auck flounder either in lvl4 or 3, with total inaction, while they "hope" they can get to 95% and "hope" it will be enough to stop the massive aftermath that is coming due to once again, inaction of ICU and staff that should have been put in place 12 months ago.

Not being facetious, I just think that is the reality of the people that were voted in. Unfortunately it is no longer just a public health and civil issue.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2797101 18-Oct-2021 14:11

tdgeek:

I don't see how. You would, I would, but we would anyway. Its not like these flouters are hardened criminals, they seem to be highly social larger families and neighbours. For whatever reason they don't have the same need to fight Covid

Yep, again, the Govt knew this, inaction. Its why most of us are tiring, not because of Lvl4 or lockdown. Its because they do nothing about the obvious while asking us to abide. So concessions were just a really dumb concept of resolving the actual problem, of getting everybody on the same page.

like I keep saying, there are many cultural reasons for why it occured, ignorance rather than flouting. add disinfo + fear narrative and its not hard to understand why their was no buy in by some. A blind camel could have solved the problem. ;-p

tdgeek

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#2797104 18-Oct-2021 14:13

TeaLeaf:

I personally think most ppl are already treating lvl3 as 2 and were even without concessions, a holiday as such. Except some people were severely financially disadvantaged (although Ive been in that situation for 7 years, so Ive become a little disinterested in the govt acting on social issues)

There was considerably more compliance in lvl4, I couldnt even start to guess how much, but exponentially.

The problem with lvl4, was as TDgeek points out, ordinary people flouting, the issue there though, was more ignorance rather than outright flouting. Again its a cultural divide, where people making decisions, simply do not understand the cultural differences between themselves and those that may not even speak much english, let alone watch TV and such. Obviously you would hope the younger generation would inform them of the facts, but with so much disinfo, and family being such a big part of their lives, especially 10+ to a house, I think the Govt simply misunderstood the cultural divide. I hope they didnt ignore it, but given they were aware of the demos 2 weeks into lvl4, it should have been pretty flappn obvious.

It was never that complicated a fix, the problem was simply inaction. I truly believe that is due to ruling from a far and not understanding the landscape, rather than arrogance (at least I like to believe ignorance over arrogance).

While I don't disagree re the cultural divide or issue, Covid-19 is no secret. Everyone knows about it. Everyone knows the rules, and unlike the Road Code, the rules are pretty short and simple. But "it'll be ok", isn't ok.

Now we see low scanning (I assume) as half each day's cases are not linked as they didnt scan (I assume) . This won't improve, so the rest of us, get vaccinated, so we aren't part of the epidemic of the invaccinated which is how it will play out, as it already has elsewhere. We could have had a choice when to "live with it", but a few people have taken that away, so now its a rush

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2797105 18-Oct-2021 14:13

itey: Circuit breaker is pointless. 90% of eligible people in Auckland have had the first dose, almost 70% double vaccinated.
The country will have to be like every other country (except Taiwan) and start to live with covid.
A snap level 4 will cause outrage in Auckland and will do more harm than good.

Still only half of the actual population has been fully vaccinated. Aucklands rates maybe slightly higher, but is Auckland going to stay cordoned off until next year?

IMO the MOH made an error in going down to L3, suggesting elimination was still the aim and could be done in L3, but I don' think people realized that it could result in a far longer lockdown until December if it failed.The so called long tail of Delta is now resulting in exponential cases. Todays numbers may not seem that high , but testing is always lower in the weekends.
L4 circuit breaker won't likely eliminate it now due to the delay, but it hopefully slows down the exponential growth. But I do wonder if they can do it in a way to keep more businesses open because it is spreading mainly between households, and not via businesses. Singapore is a good case of the problems NZ faces, and their ICU capacity is likely better .

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tdgeek

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#2797107 18-Oct-2021 14:15

TeaLeaf:

like I keep saying, there are many cultural reasons for why it occured, ignorance rather than flouting. add disinfo + fear narrative and its not hard to understand why their was no buy in by some. A blind camel could have solved the problem. ;-p

You make it sound so easy. I'd wager you could get is to 98% if eligible's by morning tea tomorrow?

cokemaster

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#2797108 18-Oct-2021 14:15

A few dozen pages ago, I said that I wrote to the minister regarding concerns regarding Covid safety / practices at Greenlane hospital where one could pretty much roam the hospital at will.

I’ve now got a response back from the ministry: the TL/DR version is “not our problem, here is a phone number and email address (feedback@adhb.govt.nz) for the hospital where you can raise your concerns”.

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mattwnz

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#2797109 18-Oct-2021 14:18

TeaLeaf:

tdgeek:

I don't see how. You would, I would, but we would anyway. Its not like these flouters are hardened criminals, they seem to be highly social larger families and neighbours. For whatever reason they don't have the same need to fight Covid

Yep, again, the Govt knew this, inaction. Its why most of us are tiring, not because of Lvl4 or lockdown. Its because they do nothing about the obvious while asking us to abide. So concessions were just a really dumb concept of resolving the actual problem, of getting everybody on the same page.

like I keep saying, there are many cultural reasons for why it occured, ignorance rather than flouting. add disinfo + fear narrative and its not hard to understand why their was no buy in by some. A blind camel could have solved the problem. ;-p

Yes, when people see other people flouting the rules and getting away with it, it means some other people will also flout the rules because they aren't being enforced. You only have to watch programs like border control on TV, and all the people on that that flout the rules, bringing in food etc that doesn't meet the rules, hoping they will get away with it. Many though claim ignorance, even though many must know the rules.

tdgeek

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#2797111 18-Oct-2021 14:22

mattwnz:

IMO the MOH made an error in going down to L3, suggesting elimination was still the aim and could be done in L3, but I don' think people realized that it could result in a far longer lockdown until December if it failed.. L4 circuit breaker won't likely eliminate it but it slows down the exponential growth. Singapore is a good case of the problems NZ faces, and their ICU capacity is likely better .

They were screaming for Level 3, now its for Level 4. Level 4 does "slows down the exponential growth" BUT that's based on the fact that you have the usual, normal level of compliance that we had in the past so you would hope for a similar result. But compliance has changed. There is no getting away from that. Ask them to comply, they don't. Threaten them and they won't test.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2797112 18-Oct-2021 14:23

tdgeek:

While I don't disagree re the cultural divide or issue, Covid-19 is no secret. Everyone knows about it. Everyone knows the rules, and unlike the Road Code, the rules are pretty short and simple. But "it'll be ok", isn't ok.

so now its a rush

Yes. most of us know, at leas the basics, but there is definitely a Use Case of those for why they either didnt know (the whole picture) or were too scared to confront it (due to many things, but disinfo was a big one). Keep in mind many have seen their relatives dramatically impacted by this elsewhere in the world, so I think paralysis from fear could have been a big factor. There would be at least a dozen reasons for why, but not you are saying, the attitude from those that impose the rules was one of "she'll be right mate", even with the aforementioned issues well and truly highlighted and in bold print via the stats and modelling, so no real excuses for the rule makers really.

Yep, it is indeed a case of Auck and other regions now, in lockdown, while the Govt rushes to put in place what should have been ready and waiting for the known pandemic as seen over a year earlier elsewhere. So again, not excuses for them there either. That is, a rush, not just for vax numbers but for how they flap they are going to (or arent going to) handle the oncoming onslaught due to the lack of infrastructure and staff that should have been in place many many months ago.

mattwnz:

Many though claim ignorance, even though many must know the rules.

Exactly, its a combination of so many things. Aside from the ICU and staff situation, the Govt should imo have been waging war on disinfo a year ago, not hoping people would some how "hear" about the facts and then believe them while people close to them are whispering another thought in the other ear. Luckily it seems the majority have gone with science.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2797114 18-Oct-2021 14:28

cokemaster: A few dozen pages ago, I said that I wrote to the minister regarding concerns regarding Covid safety / practices at Greenlane hospital where one could pretty much roam the hospital at will.

I’ve now got a response back from the ministry: the TL/DR version is “not our problem, here is a phone number and email address (feedback@adhb.govt.nz) for the hospital where you can raise your concerns”.

haha, how ironic, this is where I had my said surgery and mentioned the numbers of people with masks pulled below noses and people wandering around aimlessly. A few people on the main entrance was about all I saw, directionally, and a few seats with do not sit here on them.

highly comical for me personally coke hehe.

Rikkitic

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#2797115 18-Oct-2021 14:30

People often seem to forget that ministries are huge government bureaucracies employing large numbers of people to carry out various tasks. These people do not come and go with different governments. They are professional civil servants, serving whatever government is in power. Of course they are supposed to implement the policy decisions of the current government, but how they go about that is largely determined by internal processes.

Without really knowing, I strongly suspect that the Ministry of Health is dysfunctional, and has been for a long time. This has nothing to do with the current government or any other. It goes much deeper than that. I think a lot of the mistakes that have been made are a result of this dysfunction. This is almost impossible to fix, as it would require a complete culture change. Maybe once Covid is settled and part of daily life, some future government can just cancel the entire ministry, and start over again.

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Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2797116 18-Oct-2021 14:36

mattwnz: Yes, when people see other people flouting the rules and getting away with it, it means some other people will also flout the rules because they aren't being enforced. You only have to watch programs like border control on TV, and all the people on that that flout the rules, bringing in food etc that doesn't meet the rules, hoping they will get away with it. Many though claim ignorance, even though many must know the rules.

There's a bit of this going on now. "We didn't know." "We're not ready." "We'll be decimated." "They're remote and hard to reach."

So remote then they are probably quite safe from getting covid unless someone from the big smoke takes it to them and doesn't tell them all about what has been going on on the planet these past 20 months.

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