2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2440254 17-Mar-2020 19:19

tdgeek:

Dont blame the PM, or Simon Bridges who agreed to all this, blame the Ministry of Health, the experts. Then ask why we have such low cases and no known CT. Because we made sound decisions, end of story.

EDIT apologies for being so blunt

A friend if mine (Dr in a public health special field) knows Ashley Bloomfield very well through work etc, assures me that he's an outstandingly competent person to be handling this situation. "We couldn't be in better hands". I believe it.

If I've got any doubts about the Ministry, then maybe from their media teams etc. I'll try to remember this post tomorrow - I got told something newsworthy "through the grapevine" (and not through anybody involved in medicine) an hour or so ago that I dismissed as almost certain BS (and told them not to spread BS). If it's not, I'll be a bit upset, but maybe they had good reasons.

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#2440257 17-Mar-2020 19:23

tdgeek:

ask why we have such low cases and no known CT. Because we made sound decisions, end of story.

you seem to have a crystal ball. you better be right. coz most of us won't know if that's correct until we get to April.

why we have such low cases? it could be because we've only just begun our graph (late start), or because our government is amazingly smart.

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#2440258 17-Mar-2020 19:24

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Well. I'll probably get hammered, but here goes. Prior to Saturdays announcement there was the usual well commented posts here. Since Saturday its like hell broke loose, but all it was was an announcement of everyone has to do 14 days. But IMHO the stance now by many is that its WAY too late and WAY not enough? Why wasnt that the voice here weeks before Saturday???

Check out my post I made way back on the 28th January in this thread, where I said that we should be restricting air travel and also banning flights in from China. This was before the flight ban occurred with China. I was worried back then about this, and didn't think it would play along like this. I thought it would be contained like the SARS had been previously. That is a month and a half ago, and now look where we are at.

But compared to many first world countries, we are very lucky not to have more reported cases. The problem as the person who was in charge of the SARS outbreak said, if you look at this like an iceberg, and all the reported cases what is showing above the waterline. How big is the iceberg under the waterline, which are all those people who are potentially incubating it and are not showing symptoms yet and haven't been tested?. Do we have any rumblings in communities that there is CT occurring?

Luckily all cases reported today are from overseas.But as they have ramped up testing, it is possible that those increased tests may increase the curve, but hopefully none will be CT cases. But potentially if over the next week, if all cases can be tracked back to overseas travel, we should be in a good place.

I get that, and well done for calling it back then, a genuine compliment.

Re CT there are hopefully none so far, but there might be, but as @frankv said a wee while back we would have expected them to surface at ED's. We will get them.

Have we ramped up testing? Hadn't heard that. Our big leak is the airports, but we seem to have an extensive detective thing going on in the background.That give me comfort that if we have a CT in AKL or anywhere, all the close contacts will be traced, plus all the new hype makes everyone super cautious if they get any potential symptoms, hence the 24000 calls Healthline just had, that was mentioned in the telecast today. While we hear from the PM and Dr Bloomfield, there seems to be massive numbers sight unseen, behind the scenes. Maybe thats the main reason we have an airport risk, but appear to nab that soon enough.

Its possible we may close off more soon. OR make it plain and clear that if you are backpacking for 3 or 6 months, welcome, but do the 14 days, then thats great. I'd like Mr Plod to meet tourists, explain it in plain black and white as we can certainly welcome 3 to 6 month tourists.

dogstar001

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#2440259 17-Mar-2020 19:24

tdgeek:
dogstar001:

Exactly all it will take is one super spreader & its lights out for us.

I think the problem with the PM is she does the right thing about 2 weeks too late. She sort of reacts to developments. when we need someone who attempts to predict what will happen & take the initiative.

No way, hose. We could have easily shut everyone out months ago. Should we have? Check how many CT's we have, how many cases, per capita.

Dont blame the PM, or Simon Bridges who agreed to all this, blame the Ministry of Health, the experts. Then ask why we have such low cases and no known CT. Because we made sound decisions, end of story.

EDIT apologies for being so blunt

I hope I'm wrong TBH, but I stand by my opinion. I feel the govt should be ultra aggressive to reduce the risk of spread as much as possible. I don't know, I feel i'm a lot more risk adverse than others on the forum. I enjoy the discussion though

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#2440261 17-Mar-2020 19:27

The student at Dunners school has returned a positive, school closed

amiga500

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#2440262 17-Mar-2020 19:27

Jase2985:

sir1963:

Airline staff being quarantined for 2 weeks at either end would make it uneconomic for travel.

but are they?

Air crew has always been an allowed 'loophole' at least in the early stages of this crisis. When passengers from China were banned Air China sent planes for two days to ferry their people back to China. Out of curiosity I sat at the CHC arrivals area to see what the crew did. The flight attendants & four or five pilots all wearing face masks came through the arrivals door & headed for a crew bus to take them to a hotel - exactly the same procedure as always happens. This was definitely after the ban on passengers from China had come into effect.

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#2440263 17-Mar-2020 19:28

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Dont blame the PM, or Simon Bridges who agreed to all this, blame the Ministry of Health, the experts. Then ask why we have such low cases and no known CT. Because we made sound decisions, end of story.

EDIT apologies for being so blunt

A friend if mine (Dr in a public health special field) knows Ashley Bloomfield very well through work etc, assures me that he's an outstandingly competent person to be handling this situation. "We couldn't be in better hands". I believe it.

If I've got any doubts about the Ministry, then maybe from their media teams etc. I'll try to remember this post tomorrow - I got told something newsworthy "through the grapevine" (and not through anybody involved in medicine) an hour or so ago that I dismissed as almost certain BS (and told them not to spread BS). If it's not, I'll be a bit upset, but maybe they had good reasons.

Conversely, I know someone very well who worked with him in a management capacity who was deeply unimpressed, so I suppose it all comes down to what you look for!

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tdgeek

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#2440266 17-Mar-2020 19:30

Batman:

tdgeek:

ask why we have such low cases and no known CT. Because we made sound decisions, end of story.

you seem to have a crystal ball. you better be right. coz most of us won't know if that's correct until we get to April.

why we have such low cases? it could be because we've only just begun our graph (late start), or because our government is amazingly smart.

No mindreader. We are a small country, low density. We haven't had a late start, as we were vulnerable the same time as everyone else. I believe we had a good start with MoH, the Government follows them. And luck.

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#2440267 17-Mar-2020 19:31

we now have case no 12. son of case no 9. i suppose that's not community transmission.

tdgeek

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#2440268 17-Mar-2020 19:36

dogstar001:

I hope I'm wrong TBH, but I stand by my opinion. I feel the govt should be ultra aggressive to reduce the risk of spread as much as possible. I don't know, I feel i'm a lot more risk adverse than others on the forum. I enjoy the discussion though

Nothing wrong with that, Im probably a little too comfortable. I see the numbers (Im a numbers guy) and I see the action. Im good with that so far, tracking "ok" But I'm well aware that tomorrow or Fridee it all changes. Personally, and with the flights dropping off, Id welcome backpackers but that comes with a stern DO IT, then enjoy NZ. While our numbers are ok, it lengthens the period that our economy is not too badly affected. But I dont place the economy first. If things are tracking well, and I place a lot of faith in out GP's, health system and MoH, but it comes down to us. The Govt cant fix this, only we can

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#2440269 17-Mar-2020 19:36

Batman:
we now have case no 12. son of case no 9. i suppose that's not community transmission.

Nope would be from the home, with the risk it was passed on further from there. .basically is like a hand grande into that school.

We will quite likely see more of this too in other workplaces or schools...

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#2440270 17-Mar-2020 19:38

tdgeek:

The student at Dunners school has returned a positive, school closed

closed for 48 hrs. hmm ... 48 hrs?

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#2440271 17-Mar-2020 19:41

hio77:
Batman:

we now have case no 12. son of case no 9. i suppose that's not community transmission.

Nope would be from the home, with the risk it was passed on further from there. .basically is like a hand grande into that school.

We will quite likely see more of this too in other workplaces or schools...

Yes we will. Im not long in but I think it was from one of todays 3? Like the other imports, contract tracing we do well. But with the incomings locked down more than they were prior to Monday 1am, that airport leak opportunity is now reduced.

IMO we are running with or bit ahead or a bit behind the 8 ball, but its not running away

Fred99

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#2440272 17-Mar-2020 19:47

Geektastic:

Conversely, I know someone very well who worked with him in a management capacity who was deeply unimpressed, so I suppose it all comes down to what you look for!

Yeah - well, as a generalisation technical people tend to hate stereotypical management types - especially the types that come in as "consultants" on an agenda that doesn't interest them whatsoever, so maybe tend to be less able and willing to hide their feelings, so I guess the person you know may have had their nose put out of joint. Typical kind of thing "so you spend $500k a year buying &^%% - how can we save on that". "We can't". "What do you mean we can't?" "You want an explanation when you're a beancounter with an MBA in a fancy suit? Come back and ask again when you've got a postgraduate degree in human sciences - I've got better things to do than waste time talking to morons". Source: immediate family members qualified and working in change management with academics, and a physics professor. It's entertaining. I shut up and watch the fireworks. I left school when I was 12, I've got nothing to say.

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#2440273 17-Mar-2020 19:47

Batman:

tdgeek:

The student at Dunners school has returned a positive, school closed

closed for 48 hrs. hmm ... 48 hrs?

If you say so, yes. I cant keep up with all the medical stuff, maybe Hio77 can send me on a day off to do that :-) But when I've heard Dr Bloomfield talking about it all they have timeframes for this and the next thing. IIRC based on the time they are asymptomatic, and the time they are symptomatic, as to where the safe and bad period is. They seem to have a handle on it

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