2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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2406 posts

Uber Geek

#2811154 11-Nov-2021 15:14

Mattwnz

Does not seem to be 1/2 the cases in Hospital are vaccinated ?

https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/11-11-2021/the-spinoff-covid-tracker/

Very few fully vaccinated according to this from MOH data. 3% ?

sbiddle

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#2811156 11-Nov-2021 15:16

tdgeek:

sbiddle:

The traffic light system can't exist without vaccine passports - but even if you exclude them the South Island couldn't exist at green right now with the other requirements and conditions.

The green light: Some isolated community transmission

The green light is for when Covid-19 spread is isolated, with hospitalisations at a manageable level.

Seems fairly clear to me, can you clarify what is in those words that excludes what those words mean?

I suggest you read the traffic light system again in full and not just the diagram.

Green is our "new normal" or how things will be in probably 6+ months time (or maybe before then if we're really lucky). In particular it assumes there is very limited spread and removes the requirements for masks indoors and on public transport.

We know right now that masks are going to be part of our life for the quite some time particularly in crowded indoor environments and on public transport. Once we move to green those requirement for masks are gone everywhere except for planes - so until we're at a point in the future where mask use is deemed unnecessary we aren't moving to green.

I think a lot of people are still really struggling to comprehend how difficult 2022 could well be for us all, particularly the first half of the year.

mattwnz

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Uber Geek

#2811157 11-Nov-2021 15:19

ezbee:

Mattwnz

Does not seem to be 1/2 the cases in Hospital are vaccinated ?

https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/11-11-2021/the-spinoff-covid-tracker/

Very few fully vaccinated according to this from MOH data. 3% ?

The stuff article today says

Fifty-six per cent of cases in hospital (46 people) were unvaccinated or not eligible due to their age.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300451954/covid19-185-new-cases-in-delta-community-outbreak-additional-death-recorded

The other 44% have some vaccination.

tdgeek

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#2811159 11-Nov-2021 15:35

mattwnz:

The stuff article today says

Fifty-six per cent of cases in hospital (46 people) were unvaccinated or not eligible due to their age.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300451954/covid19-185-new-cases-in-delta-community-outbreak-additional-death-recorded

The other 44% have some vaccination.

The graph above says its 73%, Stuff says 56%. Who is correct??

robbyp

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#2811160 11-Nov-2021 15:36

vexxxboy:

Germany is only at 67% fully vaccinated, UK is worse at around 65% we are so much better and we never had the cases that both countries had before leaving Lockdown, dont compare NZ to most European countries or even the USA

Germany is ahead of NZ in terms of full vaccination as shown at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

ezbee

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#2811162 11-Nov-2021 15:45

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

The stuff article today says

Fifty-six per cent of cases in hospital (46 people) were unvaccinated or not eligible due to their age.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300451954/covid19-185-new-cases-in-delta-community-outbreak-additional-death-recorded

The other 44% have some vaccination.

The graph above says its 73%, Stuff says 56%. Who is correct??

Ok the graphic is total over the Delta outbreak, not that days snapshot. Day to Day you could get large variation.

From todays data , two cases have been fully vaccinated for less than 14 days and eight have been fully vaccinated for more than two weeks.

Sure as we get more fully vaccinated they will come up more in the totals , as there are more of them.
Though as you get more outbreaks in Aged care you will get more serious cases.
Vaccines provide protection for aged, but its not as good as protection for young by a large degree it seems.
Privilege of age. Things don't work so well :-)

wellygary

8331 posts

Uber Geek

#2811163 11-Nov-2021 15:50

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

The stuff article today says

Fifty-six per cent of cases in hospital (46 people) were unvaccinated or not eligible due to their age.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300451954/covid19-185-new-cases-in-delta-community-outbreak-additional-death-recorded

The other 44% have some vaccination.

The graph above says its 73%, Stuff says 56%. Who is correct??

The Spinoff chart is a total of all those hospitalised THROUGHOUT the current outbreak,

The MoH/stuff number is CURRENT hospitalisations,

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Handle9

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#2811173 11-Nov-2021 16:20

MikeB4:
networkn:

It's one thing to be totally out of touch with the realities of the situation, but it's a whole other thing to be supercilious and judgemental whilst doing it.

There is a massive difference between operating during a pandemic, and operating in L3 and L4 conditions for 3 months, after already having gone through a lockdown already multiple times this year.

Trying to do this whilst you might have kids at home, trying to learn, potentially in an environment that doesn't lend itself to working nor learning, not to mention the constant uncertainty.
>

Stop cherry picking and stop personally attacking. I have NOT targeted anyone person.

You’ve dismissed anyone with a failing business as an incompetent idiot. Stop playing the victim.

vexxxboy

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Uber Geek

#2811174 11-Nov-2021 16:21

robbyp:

vexxxboy:

Germany is only at 67% fully vaccinated, UK is worse at around 65% we are so much better and we never had the cases that both countries had before leaving Lockdown, dont compare NZ to most European countries or even the USA

Germany is ahead of NZ in terms of full vaccination as shown at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

they are at 69% partially vaccinated we are at 75% but by the time where we are going out of strict lockdown we will be around 80% overall and near 90% in Auckland. Germany were only at mid 60% when they did it.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Scott3

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#2811179 11-Nov-2021 16:33

vexxxboy:

Germany is only at 67% fully vaccinated, UK is worse at around 65% we are so much better and we never had the cases that both countries had before leaving Lockdown, dont compare NZ to most European countries or even the USA

Those percentages you are quoting are of total population.

On the same metric, NZ is 67% fully vaccinated by MOH data. If you use a NZ population of 5.1m, the number is 65.7%. I haven't checked the numbers, but it is a safe bet we are a few points ahead on first dose.

Worrying thing for NZ is that much of the world has a decent chunk of natural immunity, that we don't. Positive thing is we aren't just about to go into winter.

Also positive is that NSW has dropped and stabilized their case numbers at around 250. We really need to be striving for their vaccination level (94% of 16+ first dose). - Something they have achieved via fairly draconian vaccine mandates & a pass system.

Scott3

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#2811182 11-Nov-2021 16:43

mudguard:

So it's pretty safe to assume if Auckland is allowed out for Christmas, then I'll be working as normal in January? I travel Monday to Friday everywhere so I can't see it being reversed outside of the Christmas period?

I guess we'll know more at the end of month. I usually like to have everything for January booked before I go on leave.

Yes safe to assume Auckland is allowed out for Christmas. Multiple senior ministers have confirmed as much.

When, and what conditions apply are still unknown.

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2811201 11-Nov-2021 17:10

Wellington ICU leader's modelling shows huge bed shortfall with 90 per cent vaccine rate

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126937815/covid19-wellington-icu-leaders-modelling-shows-huge-bed-shortfall-with-90-per-cent-vaccine-rate

I do recall hearing experts previously saying that NZ needs close to 99% vaccination rates for our health system to cope. I notice this article is referring to a 'covid outbreak' but letting Covid become endemic and living with the virus in the community , which appears to be which the government is planning, it is essentially an outbreak isn't it?.

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2811203 11-Nov-2021 17:13

Scott3:

vexxxboy:

Germany is only at 67% fully vaccinated, UK is worse at around 65% we are so much better and we never had the cases that both countries had before leaving Lockdown, dont compare NZ to most European countries or even the USA

Those percentages you are quoting are of total population.

On the same metric, NZ is 67% fully vaccinated by MOH data. If you use a NZ population of 5.1m, the number is 65.7%. I haven't checked the numbers, but it is a safe bet we are a few points ahead on first dose.

Worrying thing for NZ is that much of the world has a decent chunk of natural immunity, that we don't. Positive thing is we aren't just about to go into winter.

Yes, Germany and the UK would have quite a lot of natural immunity. I had read that 50% of children in the UK may have had covid, which if they have some immunity, potentially reduces transmission a lot between households.

But we will be heading into winter as immunity to the vaccine wanes.

Handle9

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#2811205 11-Nov-2021 17:23

vexxxboy:

robbyp:

Germany is ahead of NZ in terms of full vaccination as shown at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

they are at 69% partially vaccinated we are at 75% but by the time where we are going out of strict lockdown we will be around 80% overall and near 90% in Auckland. Germany were only at mid 60% when they did it.

You are mixing and matching total and eligible population stats. Auckland won't be at 90% of the total population at the end of the month.

Assuming a 85% of the total population is eligible and 90% of the eligible population is vaccinated you are looking at around 77% of the total population being vaccinated in Auckland.

ezbee

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Uber Geek

#2811206 11-Nov-2021 17:27

It does seem that the risk of reinfection is a gift of delta.

PHE upgrade Delta variant’s risk level due to reinfection risk
This article is more than 3 months old
Risk of reinfection with Delta may be 46% greater than with the Alpha variant, national testing data finds
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/phe-upgrade-delta-variants-risk-level-due-to-reinfection-risk

As much as it gives vaccination a tough test.

With large population you also have large absolute numbers of people that are able to be infected.
Even accounting for those that have been vaccinated and infected.

When you don't have belt and braces controls and limits then its easier for virus to find the next one.
Carnival Season, of Course.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-carnival-party-is-on-despite-covid-wave/a-59776389

I suppose glass half full will be that we will have data from northern hemisphere winter on boosters and such.
Interestingly enough Cuba went with 3 doses as standard for their own vaccine development.

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