2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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169 posts

Master Geek

#2811208 11-Nov-2021 17:41

mattwnz:

What is crazy IMO currently is that unvaxxed can now go shopping in normal retail stores. Yet once the new traffic light system comes in, they can't apart from essential shops.

That's exactly the point I'm trying to make to people that currently there is no incentive for people to get the jab. The government should set a date for the traffic light system to start and if you haven't had both doses by then you will be restricted to certain places. Maybe if they set dates it might get people off their arse and to the vaccine places. There's no excuses. Stuff the review dates. It's a typical page out of the Labour manual to try and please everyone to stay at the top of the polls. It's time to get tough and let the country move forward and business to open. I live in a popular summer area that is extremely busy during Labour weekend / Summer yet Labour weekend was quieter than a normal weekend.

Technofreak

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#2811210 11-Nov-2021 17:50

ezbee:

Ok the graphic is total over the Delta outbreak, not that days snapshot. Day to Day you could get large variation.

From todays data , two cases have been fully vaccinated for less than 14 days and eight have been fully vaccinated for more than two weeks.

Sure as we get more fully vaccinated they will come up more in the totals , as there are more of them.
Though as you get more outbreaks in Aged care you will get more serious cases.
Vaccines provide protection for aged, but its not as good as protection for young by a large degree it seems.
Privilege of age. Things don't work so well :-)

That was part of the problem with how people interpreted the Israeli data to start with.

To get a true perspective you need to breakdown the figures into age groups and then look at infections/hospitalisations/deaths per 100,000 or equivalent metric. Then you see how good or bad things really are. We're currently not being fed that data. Even for the aged the vaccine still works very well.

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DS248

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#2811216 11-Nov-2021 18:30

vexxxboy:

...

... UK is worse at around 65% we are so much better and we never had the cases that both countries had before leaving Lockdown, dont compare NZ to most European countries or even the USA

Simple comparisons like that are not particularly meaningful, especially for a claim that "we are so much better".

In England, vaccination has not been recommended for teens under 19 (at least until very recently?). Consequently only 1%-2% of under-18's have been double vaccinated. Does somewhat impact the 12+ average.

Regardless of the above, while the overall 'first dose+" UK vaccination rate is a bit lower than NZ, the percentage double dosed is marginally higher than in NZ.

Plus of course ~19% in the UK have now had booster shots

1st Dose+ 2nd Dose+ Booster
NZ 89.7% 79.3% 0.0%
UK 87.5% 79.8% 19.0%

Figures in both cases = % of people over 12, as at 9 Nov 2021.

Data sources:

England https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/11/COVID-19-weekly-announced-vaccinations-04-November-2021.pdf

NZ https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

UK https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

tdgeek

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#2811217 11-Nov-2021 18:30

wellygary:

The Spinoff chart is a total of all those hospitalised THROUGHOUT the current outbreak,

The MoH/stuff number is CURRENT hospitalisations,

Thanks you two. Given the day to day variations isn't throughout the outbreak more pertinent?

tdgeek

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#2811218 11-Nov-2021 18:35

mattwnz:

Wellington ICU leader's modelling shows huge bed shortfall with 90 per cent vaccine rate

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126937815/covid19-wellington-icu-leaders-modelling-shows-huge-bed-shortfall-with-90-per-cent-vaccine-rate

I do recall hearing experts previously saying that NZ needs close to 99% vaccination rates for our health system to cope. I notice this article is referring to a 'covid outbreak' but letting Covid become endemic and living with the virus in the community , which appears to be which the government is planning, it is essentially an outbreak isn't it?.

I think the Govt was pushed into it by the failure in Auckland. The goal was to be well vaccinated then open up

In any case, when its endemic, 90% will be fully vaccinated one would hope, so the beds will be heavily slanted to the anti vaxxers. And now, given how long its been, and the swathe of info that's around and in the media, I am labelling hesitant as anti vaxxers. So, cases wil grow a lot, but most beds will be occupied by non vaccinated. As has occurred elsewhere, an "epidemic of the unvaccinated"

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#2811221 11-Nov-2021 18:48

tdgeek:

I think the Govt was pushed into it by the failure in Auckland. The goal was to be well vaccinated then open up

So, cases wil grow a lot, but most beds will be occupied by non vaccinated. As has occurred elsewhere, an "epidemic of the unvaccinated"

And if a hospital is at capacity restricts everyone’s ability to go to hospital, vaccinated or not, and in some cases the bed will be needed for something other then COVID.

tdgeek

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#2811222 11-Nov-2021 18:53

rugrat:

And if a hospital is at capacity restricts everyone’s ability to go to hospital, vaccinated or not, and in some cases the bed will be needed for something other then COVID.

Yers, thats right. What do you do? We cannot eliminate Covid anymore.... and if we could we cannot live alone, or maybe we could. End of the day NZ will go the way of everyone else and live with it, so that being the case we live with hospital bed usage. I expect beds will be increased, but that won't happen by Tuesday. At least where we are today is better than what some proposed two weeks after March 26 2020 when ts too much and too long. heaven forbid what we would be like now.

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ezbee

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#2811223 11-Nov-2021 19:07

Living with Covid.
From the only in Singapore file ?

Covid-19 patients who choose not to be vaccinated have to foot own medical bills from Dec 8
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/covid-19-patients-who-choose-not-to-be-vaccinated-have-to-foot-own-medical-bills

With various restrictions they are not showing a lot of tolerance for cost of unvaccinated to society.
I guess with aim of high standard of care theirs becomes economic necessity.

Where we have underfunded our medical care and will number 8 wire a solution.
Pity you can't make a pulse oximeter with number 8 wire and bailing twine.
I guess we have enough high flow oxygen supply, not going to see people begging NZIG for Oxygen tanks ?

mattwnz

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#2811224 11-Nov-2021 19:25

ezbee:

Living with Covid.
From the only in Singapore file ?

Covid-19 patients who choose not to be vaccinated have to foot own medical bills from Dec 8
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/covid-19-patients-who-choose-not-to-be-vaccinated-have-to-foot-own-medical-bills

With various restrictions they are not showing a lot of tolerance for cost of unvaccinated to society.
I guess with aim of high standard of care theirs becomes economic necessity.

Where we have underfunded our medical care and will number 8 wire a solution.
Pity you can't make a pulse oximeter with number 8 wire and bailing twine.
I guess we have enough high flow oxygen supply, not going to see people begging NZIG for Oxygen tanks ?

We do have F&P who make some types of devices.

I saw some people on twitter discussing the situation in Singapore, that many were disgusted if that occurred in NZ. It would be like asking smokers to pay for their treatment. Everyone in NZ pays taxes to receive hospital care when needed. But I do wonder if hospital ICU beds reached full capacity, and doctors had to make the difficult decision which people to put in ICU, and vaccinated people had a better chance of full recovery, whether those that are vaccinated are more likely to get chosen. It would be a very tough situation. It is a choice whether to be vaccinated or not for almost everyone. My concern is our hospitals will also have some extra load on them from incoming tourists with covid, even though all coming into NZ must be vaccinated.

One thing that is likely to help NZ in the future is the new antiviral drugs, and that maybe the thing that really helps countries with poor ICU capacity like NZ.

RUKI

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#2811227 11-Nov-2021 19:32

Hearing daily from the media those absolutely misleading numbers of goal being 90% and comments about how great we are doing in NZ, I always wondered, what are the number of people in NZ who are called "non-eligible" plus what is the number of so called anti-vaxxers?
We would probably do not have stats for ani-vaxxers, although 3000+ gatherings could easily be approximated by x100 multipler if not more.
By quick analysis of the official data today it is no brainier to do quick calculation:
- The number of "non-eligible" is about 840.000 ppl or about 16.7% of population.
- If we assume for a second number of anti-vaxxers were about 160.000 then it brings the estimated number of people who would never be vaccinated to about a Million or 20% of population. Shocking. Every 1 of 5. What is the probability of you bumping into one of those in the next 7 days? Quite high...
Resume: that "90%" goal calculated from "eligible" we are hearing about is not that reassuring, should be 100%. If you are eligible it has to be mandatory.

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MileHighKiwi

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#2811231 11-Nov-2021 19:45

RUKI: should be 100%. If you are eligible it has to be mandatory.

That would be impossible. Just take the 160k anti Vax estimate of yours. How would you feasibly enforce vaccination? Send some heavy's around to hold them down? Fine them? That won't work. Imprison them until they accept the jab? How many people could we detain at one time? our prison population is around 9k, so x 20 prison capacity needed. The moment we start rounding people up and forcing needles into their arms is the day we descend into full blown riots etc.

Forced vaccination is a step too far.

sbiddle

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#2811237 11-Nov-2021 19:53

MileHighKiwi:
RUKI: should be 100%. If you are eligible it has to be mandatory.

That would be impossible. Just take the 160k anti Vax estimate of yours. How would you feasibly enforce vaccination? Send some heavy's around to hold them down? Fine them? That won't work. Imprison them until they accept the jab? How many people could we detain at one time? our prison population is around 9k, so x 20 prison capacity needed. The moment we start rounding people up and forcing needles into their arms is the day we descend into full blown riots etc.

Forced vaccination is a step too far.

NSW are actually setting a target of 95% double jabbed by mid Dec. Whether they hit is is another thing entirely, but they're sitting on 94.1% with their first jab now.

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#2811239 11-Nov-2021 20:04

sbiddle:

NSW are actually setting a target of 95% double jabbed by mid Dec. Whether they hit is is another thing entirely, but they're sitting on 94.1% with their first jab now.

Their numbers aren’t directly comparable with NZ. While they are sitting at 94% for 16+ 12-15 is at 80%

MileHighKiwi

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#2811246 11-Nov-2021 20:08

Latest numbers from the UK vaccine surveillance report. Death within 60
days of positive
COVID-19 test between week 37
and week 40 2021.

UNVACCINATED
(Deaths per 100,000 pop)

Under 18 0.0
18-29: 0.5
30-39: 0.9
40-49: 3.5
50-59: 12.8
60-69: 26.7
70-79: 56.5
80+: 144.1

VACCINATED

Under 18 0.0
18-29: 0.2
30-39: 0.2
40-49: 0.6
50-59: 1.7
60-69: 5.5
70-79: 15.8
80+: 56.4

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025358/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-41.pdf

If I think of my friend who is anti Vax, they're in the 30-39 bracket and with a death rate of less than 1 person for every 100k it's hardly surprising there's a few people thinking they will take their chances.

MileHighKiwi

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#2811247 11-Nov-2021 20:11

sbiddle: NSW are actually setting a target of 95% double jabbed by mid Dec. Whether they hit is is another thing entirely, but they're sitting on 94.1% with their first jab now.

That would still leave around half a million of the total NSW population unvaxxed.

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