2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2819474 26-Nov-2021 05:52

back to old style if traffic lights overwhelm

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/alert-levels-plan-b-if-new-variant-hits-hipkins

Sup

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#2819553 26-Nov-2021 09:47

The latest warning sounded by South Africa with the emergence of the B.1.1.529 variant is very alarming hey. Case rates have gone from 1% to 30% very rappidly. It is out competing Delta.

The most concerning thing is the unusual cluster of mutations with eight seen at the receptor binding site when compared to Beta which had three and Delta which has two.

More than thirty mutations of the genome manifest in the spike protein alone.

We can only hope that this variant is susceptible to the vaccines. The rate and type of mutation is suggestive of it being more resistant. We will have to wait on data for that.

A lot of credit must got to South Africa for sounding the alarm and warning the WHO and hosting an open presentation to warn all concerned.

Anecdotally this thing kicked off slowly with a climb to the first two hundred cases, within days it was exponential reaching one thousand cases in a very short space of time.

I guess it is not surprising that anything that appears and aggressively out competes Delta is going to be a bit scary.

We need to know its virulence, mortality rates and resistance.

Just keep swimming...

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#2819626 26-Nov-2021 10:36

UK has acted in response to this:

"In response, UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid announced today that six African countries would be added to the country's red list from tomorrow at noon (local time). Flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will be temporarily banned and UK travellers will be required to quarantine. The UK had removed all countries from its red list earlier this month."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-delta-outbreak-new-variant-spreading-in-south-africa-is-reason-for-concern/KBKMHXPPUQ6FVBAMKCNCOZUFGY/

Clearly more contagious than delta, but as you say in your last line, we need to know it's other properties. How nasty it is, and especially how effective the pfizer vaccine is against it.

Sup

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#2819632 26-Nov-2021 10:50

Thanks for the link. I am also very interested in whether the efficacy of Paxlovid and Nonspiritual are impacted. Being Antivirals that interfere with replication then perhaps not.

You would think tho, that it offers a potential threat to monoclonal antibody therapies.

All speculative. I am stunned South Africa took extraordinary measures to put their scientific reputations on the line and insist on holding a media briefing for...as they state very clearly "to warn the public around the world as soon as we could".

That is an example of being good global citizens and of being seriously concerned.

I never worried about MU nor Delta plus, because it was very clear that nothing was going to be significantly more impactful than Delta....famous last words and all of that. I am constantly being proved wrong and frankly humbled by this virus.

However I do keep a very flexible understanding of disease, because if you do not understand that the conversation is constantly changing, then you do not understand Covid or pandemics at all.

Just keep swimming...

trig42

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#2819637 26-Nov-2021 10:58

What we wish for is one of these super virulent strains to be much less deadly. It can then overtake Delta, and not put a huge strain on Hospitals, then it will hopefully burn itself out after it runs out of hosts that haven't already seen it.

Batman

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#2819642 26-Nov-2021 11:04

I thought someone was making a vaccine that will make it mutation proof, someone posted a link before.

So it'll be ok, we will prevail, eventually.

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quickymart

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#2819643 26-Nov-2021 11:09

Some more information about it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59418127

Batman

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#2819654 26-Nov-2021 11:26

Vaccine mandate on police and defense force

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-police-and-defence-force-staff-will-now-have-to-be-vaccinated/IM45OB36OVG6JCGNK4VTRATQOI/

Batman

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#2819661 26-Nov-2021 11:36

Something about we are not ready to reopen

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127107891/urgent-issues-report-reveals-how-weaknesses-in-covid19-response-were-exposed-by-delta-variant

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#2819676 26-Nov-2021 11:44

Batman: I thought someone was making a vaccine that will make it mutation proof, someone posted a link before.

So it'll be ok, we will prevail, eventually.

I did see that New Zealand specifically are working on this idea and a more lasting platform. Quite amazing really.

Just keep swimming...

Sup

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#2819678 26-Nov-2021 11:48

trig42:

What we wish for is one of these super virulent strains to be much less deadly. It can then overtake Delta, and not put a huge strain on Hospitals, then it will hopefully burn itself out after it runs out of hosts that haven't already seen it.

I keep thinking we are due you know...for a less sinister turn. I know that is not very scientific, but with each bad turn Covid has taken....and boy has it ever been a relentless bad actor....excuse the anthropomorphization but Covid has bad intentions and one heck of a mean streak.

So I think to myself....one day Roger Fitch....one day it will take a good turn...law of averages and all that....

Just keep swimming...

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Sup

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#2819684 26-Nov-2021 11:57

Batman: Vaccine mandate on police and defense force

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-police-and-defence-force-staff-will-now-have-to-be-vaccinated/IM45OB36OVG6JCGNK4VTRATQOI/

It is interesting how we tackled the groups who are in charge of our state and personal security last. A wise move really. Go for the low hanging fruit first before tackling the groups that could alarm the public if the rates of resistance are anything like seen among other countries.

The millitary already brought in its own mandate, which 15 service members were challenging through the courts. Military personal who challenge orders from the hierarchy are probably in the wrong career and probably best weeded out now and not in war time,.

The Military is not a democracy. It does not have Unions. People get served court Martial summons for bringing the millitary into disrepute, even when they have followed the rules. A couple of Pilots found this out when they imported (legally) weapons to New Zealand and were delayed in transit, because of the paper work they were promised was not processed on time. They did nothing wrong. But they were censured all the same.

Just keep swimming...

Buster

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#2819689 26-Nov-2021 12:00

It's easy to be a bit pessimistic at the moment.

Continuing on as we are now is no good, but opening up to the World is pretty scary - vaccinated or not.

Batman

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#2819690 26-Nov-2021 12:00

Vaccine mandate for hospitality? I think I must have missed it!

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/small-business/126822406/covid19-restaurant-owner-reluctantly-leaning-towards-getting-vaccinated-to-save-business-and-jobs

Batman

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#2819693 26-Nov-2021 12:06

Buster:
It's easy to be a bit pessimistic at the moment.

Continuing on as we are now is no good, but opening up to the World is pretty scary - vaccinated or not.

I think the best way is reopen Auckland, then go from there.

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