2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2837619 24-Dec-2021 09:30

SJB:

sbiddle:

The real question is what NZ will do in 1-2 weeks when NSW and then Australian cases as a whole peak and then start rapidly declining. Will we still go down the new path we're going down with delayed reopenings or will we just backtrack?

Where's the evidence that will happen?

The UK is seeing 100,000+ cases per day, almost all Delta if the Omicron figures are to be believed, so they still have the full effect of Omicron to be added on top of that in the New Year when the results of people mixing at Christmas will start to show up.

There's no reason Australia won't go the same way.

which is why we're in an enviable position to watch the world and decide what's the next move

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#2837621 24-Dec-2021 09:35

Realistic view? We all will get (a variant of) it someday, somehow. The question is only, how busy medical help will be and how each individual can deal (during and afterwards) with the infection - hopefully vaccinated. Herd immunization in this specific case is a fairy tale and will not work since some ‚weak’ variants of it will ‚die out‘, but other, more contagious ones will mutate fast enough to bring us the next wave. We already saw vaccinated medical personnel infected for the second time. After two years of covid, 10% of the inhabitants of our city got some form of covid and another approx. 1% of the infected have died. Those are the confirmed numbers - at least in my vicinity. To face the truth, there is no ‚it‘s over now‘ - we have to live, to deal with it.

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#2837622 24-Dec-2021 09:38

As our much quoted prof suggests. If the world wore something (im not going to say masks here due to the divide it causes) to stop it leaving our body

And equally took the care to stop it entering/hitting our hands to pass on.

It'd disappear and not be the problem it is.

Can make all the adjustments.and changes each country wants. But it comes down to basic biology and how a virus works.

Unfortunately.. always someone to defy logic

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#2837623 24-Dec-2021 09:48

SJB: If it's true and if the Omicron outbreak hangs around I can't see people rocking up to get boosted every 8 weeks.

I think that's unlikely to be needed. Also, the pharmas are working on Omicron specific vaccines. Said to be shipping in March if needed.

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#2837624 24-Dec-2021 09:49

@Oblivian: As our much quoted prof suggests. If the world wore something (im not going to say masks here due to the divide it causes) to stop it leaving our body

Say it. Say masks. There's no divide.

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#2837625 24-Dec-2021 09:51

Batman:

which is why we're in an enviable position to watch the world and decide what's the next move

That's exactly it. We won't know until the dust settles if what we did was right, but at least we didn't put lives on the Health Casino table and gamble with them

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On2or3wheels

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#2837629 24-Dec-2021 10:04

Remember natural immunity after catching it wanes as well, so a let it rip through option would probably just see it continually circulating with all the associated pain.

Scott3

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#2837631 24-Dec-2021 10:10

sbiddle:

vexxxboy:

i think Australia is really important as a case on how to fight the omicron strain. They are saying it doesn't put people in Hospital so it wont put a strain on our health system and we are going to ride it out just relying on the common sense of our population to do what is right for them and others so we dont need lockdowns. Every other country are going back to lockdowns and doing what they would if it was the delta strain. So we have both ways of doing things played out in the real world and for NZ we should be watching what to do when Omicron takes over here, if it works in Australia then we may not need to go back to lockdowns.

The real question is what NZ will do in 1-2 weeks when NSW and then Australian cases as a whole peak and then start rapidly declining. Will we still go down the new path we're going down with delayed reopenings or will we just backtrack?

The simple reality right now is that total Covid cases in NSW are waaaay greater than the official numbers and there isn't significant pressure yet on the health system. Many people can't even get tests and those that do are waiting days and days for results.

Big call on saying NSW cases "Will" peak and rapidly decline in 1 - 2 weeks. I think we have only seen this in South Africa. Obviously there has to be some ceiling somewhere, but it is still unclear where that will be for the likes of NSW.

What is most important to plan the NZ response is the hospital load in NSW (was 347 in hospital, 45 in icu and 13 ventilated yesterday). But we need to wait untill roughly new years eve (14 days after NSW broke 2000 daily cases) to see the impact of omicron. - we can then project forward based on the chance in daily case numbers over the past couple of weeks to predict future hospital load.

I'm not even sure if NZ could handle 45 coivd-19 cases in ICU, without having a major impact on our hospitals. Should note that 14 days prior to yesterday, NSW had 420 daily cases, vs 5715 yesterday.

I'm not sure quite on the incubation (test to ICU) time of omicron, so I just picked 14 days. Also there seems to be a Delta and omicron wave happening at the same time in NSW. Hence why I want to wait until New Years eve, to see if the Omicron component is really adding those ICU numbers, or if it is still delta infections.

If it becomes clear that the NZ hospital system can handle a let it rip approach, I think we should be doing it ASAP before we run out of summer. But based on current NSW ICU trends, I suspect we can't. Below editorial (published Nov 2021), puts the number of staffed ICU beds in NZ at 176. Even current NSW ICU load would soak up 1/4 of this...

This discussion is probiably going to be moot anyway. I'm picking we will have an Omicron MIQ leak by the end of Jan. And the government has already said that they plan to manage it using the "red" setting, and is only going to for more restrictions if we have hospital load issues. No way "red" is going to stop Omicron growth, so this is very much a let it rip approach.

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#2837633 24-Dec-2021 10:12

freitasm:
@Oblivian: As our much quoted prof suggests. If the world wore something (im not going to say masks here due to the divide it causes) to stop it leaving our body

Say it. Say masks. There's no divide.

Well no, but there is the mines better than yours, it's rubbish unless it's x model, studies show x ones don't work, if it's not N95 or surgical forget about it

Etc etc. When anything short of a open hole buff would prob sort our current states as long as you also dont go fingering and touching face where it's trapped.

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#2837639 24-Dec-2021 10:23

Scott3: I'm not even sure if NZ could handle 45 coivd-19 cases in ICU, without having a major impact on our hospitals.

For everything the NZ government has done right in this pandemic (and they have done a lot right), to me this is the biggest failing.

Despite being 18 months into the pandemic, you've had no meaningful increase in the capacity of the health system to deal with outbreaks.

From everything I've seen in the media, the impression I kept getting (until recently) is that NZ beat covid so there was no need. Now you are unprepared.

Avoiding deaths and serious illness is obviously the best outcome, but NZ has never had a backup plan if cases did escalate beyond your control. Your only real tools were lockdowns, then vaccines. But neither will stop Omicron spreading when it inevitably gets in.

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tdgeek

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#2837643 24-Dec-2021 10:31

ajobbins:
Scott3: I'm not even sure if NZ could handle 45 coivd-19 cases in ICU, without having a major impact on our hospitals.

For everything the NZ government has done right in this pandemic (and they have done a lot right), to me this is the biggest failing.

Despite being 18 months into the pandemic, you've had no meaningful increase in the capacity of the health system to deal with outbreaks.

From everything I've seen in the media, the impression I kept getting (until recently) is that NZ beat covid so there was no need. Now you are unprepared.

Avoiding deaths and serious illness is obviously the best outcome, but NZ has never had a backup plan if cases did escalate beyond your control. Your only real tools were lockdowns, then vaccines. But neither will stop Omicron spreading when it inevitably gets in.

Our health system has been the way it has been, forever. That is no quick fix. Its not a we beat Covid , it is what it is. Lockdowns then vaccines were tools to reduce deaths, which some other countries didn't want to do, so accepted deaths and supposedly a vibrant economy, and thats didn't work out either, so a lose lose

The premise now is vaccines, Omicron is not harsh, beds wont be used the same as Delta and so on

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#2837696 24-Dec-2021 10:38

What is the NSW backup plan? In days they have gone from 2000 odd cases to 3500, to pushing 6000. And there won't be any more lockdowns, wear a mask if you want to, its not the Governments role to choose for you from the PM. Is that a backup plan? Seems to me to be no plan, let the virus take over. Id rather vaccinnes and boosters were the first line of immunity, and that aids beds and ICU and the unvaccinated will get their immunity and the rest of us will no doubt get a natural booster when we catch it as vaccinated people, but the "plan" is that will reduce beds and ICU. As distinct from taking a shortcut so you can get a haircut and using death as the lever to help the economy

Sup

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#2837703 24-Dec-2021 10:51

sbiddle:

Sup:

And now what do we have? The most miserable Christmas, the most anxiety provoking holiday in Australian history.

Do you know a single person who is or are you just boldy claiming your view represents every Australian?

I don't know a single person in Australia who's looking forward to a miserable xmas or going on an anxiety provoking holiday. They're out enjoying life and going on holiday with the freedoms that they now have. Just about everybody I know there is well past caring about Covid - many stopped caring a long time ago.

hi,

Yes that was just a sweeping generalization made off the cuff in an emotive post charged by the political bungling of the pandemic, primarily the NSW situation, which is going to be our most likely pool from whence omicron springs.

Having said that I realize it will come from anywhere and when it does the best reply is to indeed continue on with life as you know it Jim...with a sprinkling of common sense.

Just keep swimming...

Scott3

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#2837706 24-Dec-2021 11:01

sbiddle:

Do you know a single person who is or are you just boldy claiming your view represents every Australian?

I don't know a single person in Australia who's looking forward to a miserable xmas or going on an anxiety provoking holiday. They're out enjoying life and going on holiday with the freedoms that they now have. Just about everybody I know there is well past caring about Covid - many stopped caring a long time ago.

I don't know people in NSW, but one on five restaurant booking being canceled, shoes a decent number of people do care about this covid-19 surge. (dec 19 article)

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/one-in-five-restaurant-bookings-cancelled-amid-resurgent-covid-fears-20211218-p59inx.html

Sup

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#2837714 24-Dec-2021 11:04

tdgeek:

What is the NSW backup plan? In days they have gone from 2000 odd cases to 3500, to pushing 6000. And there won't be any more lockdowns, wear a mask if you want to, its not the Governments role to choose for you from the PM. Is that a backup plan? Seems to me to be no plan, let the virus take over. Id rather vaccinnes and boosters were the first line of immunity, and that aids beds and ICU and the unvaccinated will get their immunity and the rest of us will no doubt get a natural booster when we catch it as vaccinated people, but the "plan" is that will reduce beds and ICU. As distinct from taking a shortcut so you can get a haircut and using death as the lever to help the economy

Clearly Scomo and Dom Perrottet were advocating for controlled spread. Herd immunity before Christmas. But they were not banking on retail shopping and the like taking a hit from anxious shoppers.

This idea of let it rip is a legitimate health principle, provided it is indeed controlled. However we saw how there is no control next door in NSW just now.

My personal feelings are this: try to avoid using experimental herd immunity models when you have unvaccinated kids. Just try to not let rip and see what happens to kiddies....maybe good maybe bad seems morally bankrupt to me.

And perhaps try to actually allow people to get boosted so we are talking about a therapeutic level of medicine here to tackle an escape variant.

Perhaps do those things before you spin the Covid chamber and pull the trigger....to ensure your supporter base get the freedoms they were promised in the hope they will thank you at the polls.

Just keep swimming...

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