2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2840401 30-Dec-2021 11:21

ajobbins:
Ge0rge: All evidence thus far suggests that he did not catch it, nor pass it to anyone else, while in MIQ.

"But he (University of Auckland professor of epidemiology Rod Jackson) added: "The most likely and possible scenario is that he got it at MIQ which is a worry." source

It's highly unlikely to be a historic infection, or that he got it anywhere other than MIQ otherwise his incubation time would have been about 14+ days

I am not questioning what was said, just that is pure speculation - My response that you've quoted above is not.

vexxxboy

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#2840405 30-Dec-2021 11:35

ok you have this headline

Three positive Covid cases in MIQ linked to DJ Omicron case

yet in his conference Hipkins said the three cases werent linked and were waiting on the fourth. Am i missing something

Common sense is not as common as you think.

alexx

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#2840407 30-Dec-2021 11:43

SJB:

freitasm:

He shouldn't be here in first place.

I was under the impression that DJ's were essential workers like cricketers and rugby players.

And doctors and nurses of course.

While I almost always prefer a live performance to a DJ, if we are going to allow any entertainers and sports people through, then I can understand the argument that it's much easier to bring a DJ through the border than a live band and their support crew (or a sports team for that matter).

Not sure why we needed to bring DJ's from the UK though. Did we run out of local DJs?

There have been a lot of visiting musicians that have cancelled. Tame Impala cancelled their December 2021 show in Auckland and has now rescheduled for October 2022. Plenty of others cancelled/rescheduled including Lorde who lives in Auckland, but her band is based in the US.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

bazzer

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#2840424 30-Dec-2021 12:22

sbiddle:

It's been confirmed by MoH that he followed process and was not out in the community before the end of day 10.

He did not wait for his day 9 test result to come back and nobody denies that. The problem is the whole process is based around doing a day 9 test so the results are back *before* the end of day 10 when you are free to enter the community. You can blame people for not following the process, but when other parts of the process are broken as well it doesn't become to easy to lay blame.

I'm with you here. It sucks that he didn't remain isolated until the result came back. It's also possible he was a bit confused about what was required of him (trying to be generous here, there's not really an excuse).

I don't consider this as blatant as some of the other examples of not following the rules. He waited the 10 days, had multiple negative tests, no symptoms. I think a lot of people would think the result they were waiting for (which really should've been back, I would think MIQ are near the top of the list but I guess being Christmas...) was more of a formality and might have done something similar, especially at that time of the year.

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#2840429 30-Dec-2021 12:37

bazzer:

I'm with you here. It sucks that he didn't remain isolated until the result came back. It's also possible he was a bit confused about what was required of him (trying to be generous here, there's not really an excuse).

I don't consider this as blatant as some of the other examples of not following the rules. He waited the 10 days, had multiple negative tests, no symptoms. I think a lot of people would think the result they were waiting for (which really should've been back, I would think MIQ are near the top of the list but I guess being Christmas...) was more of a formality and might have done something similar, especially at that time of the year.

Pritty hard to be confused when the documents are so clear:

[edit] also that he waited 10 days is also in question. Photos (now deleted) were posted of him on Christmas day, that he claims were at a private address, despite this being improbable given they show him below the high tide line of a beach. Also there was discussion of drinks with neighbors in the press conference.

ajobbins

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#2840435 30-Dec-2021 12:55

rugrat:

The test that came back positive was taken before 14 days so not 14+ days.

Well it was taken at 9 from arrival at MIQ. He also had to have a test up to 72 hors prior to departing the UK, so add 3 days gives you 12, another day travelling (remembering the day 0 test is on arrival, but the 72 hours is pre departure not pre arrival in NZ) gets you to 13. Maybe I am off by a day or so but that's not really the point.

Also maybe Omicron has a longer incubation period then Delta as suggested here.

There is no evidence or data to back that up, that's just a passing comment by Prof Wiles. I've seen nothing (of substance, or at all) to suggest that Omicron has a long incubation time. Is it possible in this isolated case? Sure. Is it likely? No

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#2840440 30-Dec-2021 13:08

Scott3:

Also there was discussion of drinks with neighbors in the press conference.

Drinks with the neighbors on the beach is definitely not my idea of isolating.

If he read that leaflet at all he ignored it.

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#2840448 30-Dec-2021 13:39

Second Omicron community case was a AirNZ worker from a sydney to auckland flight. Unrelated to our first Omicron case.

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

ezbee

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#2840449 30-Dec-2021 13:50

Growth of cases in Waikato , and persistent BOP cases, delta is not done with us just yet.
On low testing with everyone in Holiday mode ?

We get predictions around the map on Omicorn behavior.

I heard a USA report emphasizing an increase in speed of progress.
Its rapid movement even further ahead of delta a problem for contact tracing.
Days incubation had reduced 7 Original, 5 Alpha, 4 Delta, 3 Omicron.

So 'longer' comment here seems a bit odd.
However rest of world open lab experiments continue, everything is early data.

Speed of returning tests seems to have slacked off again. Arrgh...

While DJ should have been waiting till test came back. Instructions seem clear if you care.
Delay gave a chance for all of this pickle, overnight turnaround and we may have been fine.

We know with delta , and this is worse, cross infection in transfer and Hotels is possible.
Staff too are constantly exposed to risks, including cleaners and maintenance.

Trust but verify as they say.

Sup

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#2840469 30-Dec-2021 14:20

ezbee:

Growth of cases in Waikato , and persistent BOP cases, delta is not done with us just yet.
On low testing with everyone in Holiday mode ?

We get predictions around the map on Omicorn behavior.

I heard a USA report emphasizing an increase in speed of progress.
Its rapid movement even further ahead of delta a problem for contact tracing.
Days incubation had reduced 7 Original, 5 Alpha, 4 Delta, 3 Omicron.

So 'longer' comment here seems a bit odd.
However rest of world open lab experiments continue, everything is early data.

Speed of returning tests seems to have slacked off again. Arrgh...

While DJ should have been waiting till test came back. Instructions seem clear if you care.
Delay gave a chance for all of this pickle, overnight turnaround and we may have been fine.

We know with delta , and this is worse, cross infection in transfer and Hotels is possible.
Staff too are constantly exposed to risks, including cleaners and maintenance.

Trust but verify as they say.

Being someone who lives next door to a family in the Waikato that has hosted big parties fortnightly (tents in the back yard) since 2020 I say this with some frustration but....having more cases than Auckland is a National disgrace.

Fortunately the vaccine wall here is fairly high, but when omicron comes, the Waikato will give Auckland a run for its money per capita.

Just keep swimming...

Sup

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#2840486 30-Dec-2021 15:27

NSW cases look broken again however hospital admissions do not lie. They are climbing faster now, it is getting a bit scary to watch.

Just keep swimming...

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sbiddle

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#2840489 30-Dec-2021 15:34

Scott3:

bazzer:

I'm with you here. It sucks that he didn't remain isolated until the result came back. It's also possible he was a bit confused about what was required of him (trying to be generous here, there's not really an excuse).

I don't consider this as blatant as some of the other examples of not following the rules. He waited the 10 days, had multiple negative tests, no symptoms. I think a lot of people would think the result they were waiting for (which really should've been back, I would think MIQ are near the top of the list but I guess being Christmas...) was more of a formality and might have done something similar, especially at that time of the year.

Pritty hard to be confused when the documents are so clear:

Nobody is arguing he didn't break the rules. There is no defence for him breaking the rules.

BUT we do know that if the MoH processes had gone to plan and the results for the day 9 test delivered to the person before the end of day 10 like they're supposed to be we would not be in the position we're in right now because he would have been notified of the positive test before he opted to enter into the community and go out.

There is no real evidence to suggest longer incubation times for Omicron, all data shows these are shorter. If this was a case of a longer incubation period then the current 10 day MIQ stay may not have protected us either if we'd had a situation with a hypothetical situation where he had his day 9 test and was released on day 10 after getting negative result back and then went on to be positive while in the community.

Moving MIQ back to 14 days is not a solution if we start getting more Omicron cases in MIQ. The greater the number of infected people the greater the risk of transmission within the property. Once we have large scale Omicron CT any arguments at all for keeping MIQ will be hard to justify.

Scott3

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#2840495 30-Dec-2021 15:43

NSW:

12,226 daily cases. And accounts of both a multi day wait on test results, and sick people opting out of getting PCR test (and just assuming they are infected based on symptoms or, due to 5 hour waits being common).

Big spike in hospital admissions too.

I think there is growing evidence that we will need to do much more than NSW in our omicron response. Especially given we are slightly less vaccinated.

tdgeek

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#2840496 30-Dec-2021 15:45

Where does it say "results for the day 9 test delivered to the person before the end of day 10 like they're supposed to be"

From what I see, you can leave on Day 9, you need to have a test within 2 days, so that's Day 9, 10 or 11 and you cannot leave until you get a negative test

Seems clear to me

Scott3

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#2840498 30-Dec-2021 15:57

sbiddle:

Nobody is arguing he didn't break the rules. There is no defence for him breaking the rules.

The person in question did have a go at claiming that they didn't break the rules, and that their isolation period had ended. (despite the requirement to isolate until their test result came back).

But later claimed that they "misunderstood". While claiming their photos on the beach were in fact at a private address, despite being visibly below the high tide line, making this unlikely.

Will be very interesting to know that last Genome sequencing result from the same MIQ facility. Seems the most probable source, given the incubation period that would have been required for him to bring it in from overseas.

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