Sup:

 

The state of Victoria is a bit of a mess in terms of health care. Second Ambulance code Red called overnight with 25 status one patients unable to get an immediate response, no word on how many of them died.

 

The down stream effects of Omicron are really what is making it worse than Delta.

 

Of course in Victoria where there has been the strongest antivaxx movement, they have been suffering a very long Delta wave, which omicron is now coming in over the top.

 

The real alarm is that the Ambulance Union are expecting more code red nights and even the possibility of several days in a row where you cannot get immediate assistance for things like heart attack. Excess deaths then look to rise in the state.

 

Hospital numbers have hit an all time high for the State of Victoria and what concerns me most, is that they are more similar to New Zealand in terms of their health infrastructure than say the massive system they have in NSW.

 

It is very clear now that New Zealand is in for a hard time, however as I always say, the vaccinated among us, are very well protected from the worst of it.

 

The one million unvaccinated citizens is our weak point.

 

The Ambulance code red is an indirect rather than a direct result of Omicron, and why I suspect Australia (and other places who haven't already) may move to a setting where only positive cases are isolated. The demand on ambulance services isn't the problem (Omicron isn't causing a surge in demand), rather the supply is constrained with part of the workforce either unwell or isolating as a contact (the latter being a larger group).

Yes, our hospital numbers hit an all time high today at 861, but the previous high was 851 back in October when we had 1903 cases (or just 5% of today's case numbers). The same day had 103 people on ventilators in VIC, whereas today there are 27. Also, around half of those hospital numbers are not because of covid, but were detected in patients there for unrelated reasons - including giving birth.

NZ will likely face similar issues when Omicron arrives - perhaps worse because you have a less well resources health system to start with. I don't know what the answer is, but it doesn't appear the NZ government is doing a lot to prepare for this.

One thing they should be doing is getting supplies of Rapid Antigen Tests ASAP, and distributing them to hubs around the country ahead of a surge in demand on testing. Learn from Australia's mistakes and be proactive now, before you have any outbreak.

Supply of RATs is starting to improve here. I was able to get 4 this morning from a state run clinic, but it did mean a 90 minute wait.