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Sup

Sup
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  #2847947 12-Jan-2022 10:09
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The US are seeing record admissions and staff absences. So in the key metrics Omicron is certainly far worse in a poorly managed system, poorly meaning low vaccine walls and a lack of will to commit to consistent health restrictions.

 

This certainly clarifies the situation as far as milder Covid 19 goes. In totality it is not milder, it is worse, however global immunity, the knowledge we have around how to treat this disease in hospital, the affinity for the upper respiratory tract, means that on an individual basis per case it is possibly marginally less harmful.

 

But most of all we have learned how to apply health restrictions that are effective, and here in our country we are some of the best at doing that, so we will not see an all t once melt down here.

 

I think we will of course see some big numbers here. I hope people do not forget what was gained once cases hit the tens of thousands here, I hope they don't just slag off the health response without giving the situation some context.

 

There is nothing we can do about the bad stats that are coming from the unvaccinated and the pressure that group will place on testing and hospitals...short of a vaccine mandate for all.

 

We will need to be surgical about how we recommend testing and that advice is bound to upset a few people, but in essence the unvaccinated must take priority. If you want to manage a big crises, you have to be pragmatic about how you use your resources.

 

There is no system in the world big enough to keep ahead of omicron. Omicron is like trying to stop the wind blowing. We will likely see our current settings being adjusted as we have seen elsewhere, including the close contact rule, going to to work if you are asymptomatic, which of course will fuel spread, but it is the pragmatic way to keep society running.

 

We cannot just self isolate a hundred thousand workers and expect the wheels of the machine to turn on their own. Which is why the recent data out of Japan, showing that Omicrons period of infectiousness lasts up to day ten, is scientifically helpful, but not helpful in the real world.

 

Calls for the CDC to roll back the self isolation settings of close contacts and the infected are blinkered, I am afraid we need to accept that with omicron, living with the virus becomes literal.

 

Would we rather run the gauntlet of infected check out operators...or see no supermarkets for ten days to a few weeks?

 

In a wide spread omicron outbreak there will be infected people in the super market aisles, does it really make a difference if some of them are wearing uniforms?

 

Surviving a pandemic is about adaptation. A change of mindset, time over again, doing what is best in snap shots in time in an evolving crises. People on the whole do not like that uncertainty, however perhaps in time people will finally start to understand that looking ahead, and getting ready to pivot, to do whatever it takes, is really how you thrive in a crises.

 

 





Just keep swimming...




frankv
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  #2847950 12-Jan-2022 10:16
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I wouldn't call it a drama, but similar experience going for my booster yesterday. A clinic at Bulls, which was advertised as being open, had been cancelled. But the nice people there told me that Palmie was doing walk-ins. So I went to Palmie (since I was going there anyway) and got my booster jab there. Incidentally, they were close to record numbers of daily jabs as at 4pm.

 

Bit of a headache yesterday evening, slightly sore arm this morning, otherwise no ill effects.

 

 


quickymart
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  #2847952 12-Jan-2022 10:24
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SJB:

 

The owner outed himself as an anti everything and a QAnon supporter (why do you think it's called Q Foods?)

 

I did make the connection but thought it may have been a coincidence, however I was wrong :/




GV27
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  #2848012 12-Jan-2022 10:55
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Another day with no Omicron yesterday. I posted prior to the Delta outbreak that we were sleep-walking towards an inevitable outbreak and it felt like all we were doing was waiting around.

 

This time many of us are vaccinated but a lot of the wee ones are not. With a sub-one year old, this worries me greatly.

 

Anyway, that not-withstanding, we are better mentally placed for 'an outbreak' but possibly not at the scale that Omicron might bring. Or is it time to say 'will' bring.


cokemaster
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  #2848014 12-Jan-2022 10:56
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quickymart:

 

SJB:

 

The owner outed himself as an anti everything and a QAnon supporter (why do you think it's called Q Foods?)

 

I did make the connection but thought it may have been a coincidence, however I was wrong :/

 

 

Some of the displays + statements that the owner and staff cited are common arguments expressed by sovereign citizens

 

 

Pretty much all that is missing is admiralty courts, quantum grammar and maybe a few references to weird treaties (eg. 1786 Moroccan-American Treaty of Friendship)... 

 

Folks like these have been a regular staple on Youtube when it comes to motoring laws (eg. registration and adherence to speed limits), often ending up on the wrong side of court rulings and traffic stops. 

 

Whilst these Youtube videos can be amusing, some 'sovereign citizens' have chosen to take matters into their own hands which has resulted in some being classed as domestic terrorists, some listing phony judgements against peoples houses/cars/assets, or some shooting law enforcement officers.
These folks have largely been US, UK and Aus based... but there have been a few popping up here and there in NZ.

 

I realise that this is the Covid discussion and not the sovereign citizen discussion... with that being said - I want to highlight how seductive this is and how potentially dangerous this is.  Combined with large online communities/websites with official looking collateral, 'legal opinions' and the like... folks that are desperate can often go 'all in'.  

 

The reason why I bring this up - is that I suspect that its only a matter of time before someone with a similar mindset decides to turn words into violent action (eg. worksafe inspectors, police, council workers). 

 

Edit: I just opened NZH...

 

 

Now I am not implying that this is the same person as the News Hub article, I am just highlighting that violence/threat of violence can easily originate from these types of groups... 





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Sup

Sup
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  #2848030 12-Jan-2022 11:29
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frankv:

 

I wouldn't call it a drama, but similar experience going for my booster yesterday. A clinic at Bulls, which was advertised as being open, had been cancelled. But the nice people there told me that Palmie was doing walk-ins. So I went to Palmie (since I was going there anyway) and got my booster jab there. Incidentally, they were close to record numbers of daily jabs as at 4pm.

 

Bit of a headache yesterday evening, slightly sore arm this morning, otherwise no ill effects.

 

 

 

I get the vaccine headaches, well as a migraine sufferer they trigger migraines, however I was ready the second time around and headed off an attack with a preventer.

 

Good to hear you traveled for yours, none of us should muck around with this booster, try to get in early folks, the more we do so the more we help our country, I know that sounds naff but it is a fact.

 

I have been really surprised to see the first doses climb after the DJ case...we have been seeing over a thousand first doses a day.

 

Perhaps the horrid death toll today in Australia will motivate people here. Losing 42 people across two states in a day is not a mild pandemic wave.





Just keep swimming...


 
 
 

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Rikkitic
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  #2848036 12-Jan-2022 11:41
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cokemaster:

 

Edit: I just opened NZH...

 

 

Now I am not implying that this is the same person as the News Hub article, I am just highlighting that violence/threat of violence can easily originate from these types of groups... 

 

 

That is utterly revolting. It would be equally revolting if Luxon, Collins, Peters, Ross, or anyone else was the subject. I truly hope the people or person behind this get every possible maximum punishment the law allows. This kind of thing needs to be stomped on hard!

 

 





Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

 


 


Sup

Sup
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  #2848054 12-Jan-2022 12:23
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Rikkitic:

 

cokemaster:

 

Edit: I just opened NZH...

 

 

Now I am not implying that this is the same person as the News Hub article, I am just highlighting that violence/threat of violence can easily originate from these types of groups... 

 

 

That is utterly revolting. It would be equally revolting if Luxon, Collins, Peters, Ross, or anyone else was the subject. I truly hope the people or person behind this get every possible maximum punishment the law allows. This kind of thing needs to be stomped on hard!

 

 

 

 

Agreed about any person in this country trying to fight the pandemic. I got in a spot of bother with posts I made about the threat to Adern in here.

 

I have learned my lesson, so all I will say is she is the highest risk in this country from these people and that risk is extremely high. And that worries me a lot.





Just keep swimming...


ezbee
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  #2848058 12-Jan-2022 12:37
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Some places are much tougher on unvaccinated by choice.
Our pass system is softly enforced, and our fines would be some of the lowest. Hardly draconian. 

 

Quebec to impose health tax on unvaccinated Canadians
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59960689

 

Singapore did it first ?

 

Singapore moved to restrict free Covid treatment to vaccinated. Unvaccinated have to pay.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid-19-unvaccinated-choice-pay-own-medical-bills-moh-2298601

 

Choice always come with consequences, want to live 100% nudist lifestyle, its probably work from home etc too. 

 

Singapore do have omicron cases in community, but with tight rules and high vaccination it seem not to have exploded yet.
They even have a free mask distribution scheme a mix of quality surgical and some N95s underway.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/community/first-day-of-free-mask-collection-runs-smoothly-residents-pleased-with-different-sizes-design

A choice of sizes ! Luxury !

 

After months of zero and near zero cases, Taiwan gets its first recent double digit community cases, and some are omicron.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4406051

 

Vaccination has been a bit slow due to their helpful neighbor, so its been a bit hand to mouth.
Some indirect purchases, and donations of supplies needed. 
Even their own vaccine, a subunit protein one is probably a bit restricted by precursor ingredient supply.
About 6% behind us on second doses and 1% ahead on first doses. 


Scott3
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  #2848129 12-Jan-2022 13:22
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NSW Hospitalization numbers trucking on. Case numbers are declining, but I given the testing volumes, and high positivety rates, I don't think we can read anything into that.

 

Good news is that upwards trend seems linear, not exponential.

 

 

 

Ultimately doesn't change much for NZ, it is now clear we can't use the full "let it rip" approach of NSW when omircorn arrives. But equally experience from Europe shows that harsh lock-down only slightly slows it, so may not be worth the cost.

Good news is we are now into our booster roll out, and just 5 days from the start of vaccines for 5 - 11 year olds.

 

 

 

Hard to say what the right play for NZ is. We need to slow our omicron wave enough that we don't overload our hospitals (If NSW is having issues with load & staffing, NZ would be having very big issues), but we also need to keep the wave fast enough so we don't meet our peak in winter. And we like NSW we will need to give up on isolation requirement's for non (or even mildly) symptomatic essential workers to keep our hospitals running and supermarkets stocked.

 

If I was running the show, I would be hitting the button on draconian vaccine mandates now. (just primary doses at this stage), and be gearing up for a massive booster drive, when community transmission of omicron seems unstoppable.


Scott3
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  #2848131 12-Jan-2022 13:25
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Good news is our vaccine program continues to go strong.

 

Seem to be running approx 1500 first doses each weekday at the moment, which is great given the declining pool of vaccinated.

 

 

 


 
 
 

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Sup

Sup
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  #2848137 12-Jan-2022 13:34
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Scott3:

 

NSW Hospitalization numbers trucking on. Case numbers are declining, but I given the testing volumes, and high positivety rates, I don't think we can read anything into that.

 

Good news is that upwards trend seems linear, not exponential.

 

 

 

Ultimately doesn't change much for NZ, it is now clear we can't use the full "let it rip" approach of NSW when omircorn arrives. But equally experience from Europe shows that harsh lock-down only slightly slows it, so may not be worth the cost.

Good news is we are now into our booster roll out, and just 5 days from the start of vaccines for 5 - 11 year olds.

 

 

 

Hard to say what the right play for NZ is. We need to slow our omicron wave enough that we don't overload our hospitals (If NSW is having issues with load & staffing, NZ would be having very big issues), but we also need to keep the wave fast enough so we don't meet our peak in winter. And we like NSW we will need to give up on isolation requirement's for non (or even mildly) symptomatic essential workers to keep our hospitals running and supermarkets stocked.

 

If I was running the show, I would be hitting the button on draconian vaccine mandates now. (just primary doses at this stage), and be gearing up for a massive booster drive, when community transmission of omicron seems unstoppable.

 

 

Yep, if you look at two independent systems that both have similar metrics to us (NSW and Vic) then it is very clear that omicron will be the hardest thing we have faced in the pandemic by some considerable distance, for all the mild signalling in the world....the evidence is there....very clearly....omicron is going to be the big one.

 

Whether we are more resilient because of all our hard work is debatable, I do firmly believe that we are better placed psychologically than both those systems to cope. Although the calm we have been learning, the confidence we have had in dealing with Delta, will rappidly erode as our system loads up.

 

Agreed we need to find a way to use the stick with vaccines. If everyone was vaccinated that is eligible our system would be able to cope.

 

I think mandates will come. Because I do not believe that omicron is the end.





Just keep swimming...


GV27
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  #2848194 12-Jan-2022 13:47
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Two more people have died with Covid-19, the Ministry of Health has announced.

 

It comes as 65 new cases have been detected at the border. There are also 28 new community cases, and 31 people are in hospital with the virus.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300494417/covid19-two-people-have-died-65-new-cases-at-the-border-28-community-cases

 

65 Border Cases in two days. I think we need to accept we may possibly be in the window where Omicron gets into the community but before we can really pick it up through testing. 


Scott3
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  #2848195 12-Jan-2022 13:47
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40% of eligible population have had boosters; 28 community cases; 2 deaths; 31 people in hospital; two in ICU

 

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/40-eligible-population-have-had-boosters-28-community-cases-2-deaths-31-people-hospital-two-icu

 

 

 

29 cases at the boarder.

 

Frankly I am surprised we have kept Omicron out this long. But it is great we have.

 

Just 5 days from the start of vaccines for 5 - 11's, with stock on hand. and heaps of doses on hand in general (cira 2.6m) for the inevitable rush on vaccines when omicron gets loose.


Scott3
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  #2848199 12-Jan-2022 13:55
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Sup:

 

Yep, if you look at two independent systems that both have similar metrics to us (NSW and Vic) then it is very clear that omicron will be the hardest thing we have faced in the pandemic by some considerable distance, for all the mild signalling in the world....the evidence is there....very clearly....omicron is going to be the big one.

 

Whether we are more resilient because of all our hard work is debatable, I do firmly believe that we are better placed psychologically than both those systems to cope. Although the calm we have been learning, the confidence we have had in dealing with Delta, will rappidly erode as our system loads up.

 

Agreed we need to find a way to use the stick with vaccines. If everyone was vaccinated that is eligible our system would be able to cope.

 

I think mandates will come. Because I do not believe that omicron is the end.

 



NZ managed to eliminate early strains with lock-downs. And with delta while lock-downs failed to eliminate it, they brought time for us to vaccinate our way to a point were it was not a big issue.

 

But Omicron is different. It's ability to break through vaccine protection, and how it is so contagious, mean our previous approaches won't work (with current vaccine's anyway). Minimal herd protection for the un-vaccinated and venerable with omicron.

 

Good thing it is milder, but as you say, this is going to be our big one. It is clearly still serious enough to cause major issues in most part's of the world.

Seems slightly ironic that because the vaccine kinda sucks against omicron infection, that it is vital that we vaccinate a much higher percentage of the population.


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