2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2848202 12-Jan-2022 14:04

GV27:

65 Border Cases in two days.

Scott3:

29 cases at the boarder.

Neither of the above statements are correct.

There were 9 cases identified at the border in the 24 hour period ending 10 Jan 2359.

There were 65 cases identified at the border in the 24 hour period ending 11 Jan 2359.

GV27

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#2848205 12-Jan-2022 14:10

Ge0rge:

Neither of the above statements are correct.

There were 9 cases identified at the border in the 24 hour period ending 10 Jan 2359.

There were 65 cases identified at the border in the 24 hour period ending 11 Jan 2359.

My bad, the version of the story I had was a 'more to come' placeholder with basically just that information in at that point.

KiwiSurfer

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#2848256 12-Jan-2022 14:24

Did my booster at the Airport Drive Thu centre last Saturday. Was a very easy process. Wasn't very busy so was in and out pretty much (apart from the enforced 10m wait post-jab). Checked My Covid Record when I parked my car after the jab and it was already in the system. The system/process there was obviously a well-oiled machine.

I did think about the local chemists etc but thought it'd be a hassle working out which one is open etc. Seeing some of the comments in this thread I think I made the right choice to just do the Airport drive through centre.

If you're South/Central Auckland I'd suggest the Airport centre if you don't want to muck around and just get it over and done with.

GV27

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#2849370 12-Jan-2022 16:05

I mean either way it's a lot of cases to have running through MIQ of a supposedly more infectious variant than the one that mysteriously managed to get out of MIQ last time.

ezbee

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#2849376 12-Jan-2022 16:17

Taiwan have updated their test protocol where you have to wait for result before exiting Airport.
Given the high numbers appearing at border.

Virus positivity rate high among overseas arrivals
RULES TIGHTENED: Passengers arriving from Sydney and Los Angeles tested positive for COVID-19, while passengers arriving from Seattle all tested negative
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/01/12/2003771207

""
Yesterday was the first day that the government enforced stricter health guidelines for the testing of passengers arriving on long-haul flights. They must undergo a polymerase chain reaction test immediately after arriving at the nation’s international airports. Those who test positive are sent directly to hospitals to avoid spreading the virus to people working in and around the airports and at quarantine hotels.
""

The large number of cases at the border, theoretically tested and fully vaccinated.
Special people may have ways of getting a vaccination certificate, given people like our struck off doctor exist worldwide.
Of course a variety of rapid tests used for exit tests are also an unavoidable weakness.
Plus incentive at exiting airport is to get rid of you, then you are someone else's problem ?

It is what it is.

frankv

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#2849398 12-Jan-2022 16:58

Scott3:

NSW Hospitalization numbers trucking on. Case numbers are declining, but I given the testing volumes, and high positivety rates, I don't think we can read anything into that.

The key question is how many hospital, ICU, VENT beds are available. Because when the covid numbers get close to that, there will be impacts on other services like elective surgery. And if they get to 100% utilisation, the fatality rate will increase accordingly.

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Scott3

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#2849405 12-Jan-2022 17:06

GV27:

Ge0rge:

Neither of the above statements are correct.

There were 9 cases identified at the border in the 24 hour period ending 10 Jan 2359.

There were 65 cases identified at the border in the 24 hour period ending 11 Jan 2359.

My bad, the version of the story I had was a 'more to come' placeholder with basically just that information in at that point.

I just messed up and read the number on the line two above.

But wow. 65 cases in a single day. Glad my rough estimate some weeks back of one MIQ leak per 50 positive cases has turned out to be false.

wellygary

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#2849408 12-Jan-2022 17:08

frankv:

Scott3:

NSW Hospitalization numbers trucking on. Case numbers are declining, but I given the testing volumes, and high positivety rates, I don't think we can read anything into that.

The key question is how many hospital, ICU, VENT beds are available. Because when the covid numbers get close to that, there will be impacts on other services like elective surgery. And if they get to 100% utilisation, the fatality rate will increase accordingly.

From a Guardian article a few days ago,

"Under the worst-case scenario, whereby 600 ICU beds will be occupied by Covid patients, the state’s intensive care capacity would be hovering just under capacity."

But its becoming increasingly clear that actual beds are not going to be the limiting factor... Its going to be staff,

If you have 10-20% of your health workforce either sick with COVID or isolating as close contacts until they get a neg test then you have a huge capacity problem,...

ajobbins

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#2849477 12-Jan-2022 17:33

Scott3:

But wow. 65 cases in a single day. Glad my rough estimate some weeks back of one MIQ leak per 50 positive cases has turned out to be false.

"We have carried out research with Australian colleagues to look at the frequency of border failures. In the past, we've had about one border failure per 100 infected people entering MIQ in New Zealand - or an average of one per 167 people across New Zealand and Australia." Prof. Baker, NZ Herald 10/01/2022

So hopefully infection control protocols have improved a lot, otherwise at this point you're well overdue for a leak - because that 1/100 actual number is Delta.

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tdgeek

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#2849492 12-Jan-2022 18:21

GV27:

I mean either way it's a lot of cases to have running through MIQ of a supposedly more infectious variant than the one that mysteriously managed to get out of MIQ last time.

Not sure about "mysteriously" If Omicron is vibrant overseas it will be vibrant at our border. So... we can lock the border, or not.

tdgeek

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#2849493 12-Jan-2022 18:23

wellygary:

But its becoming increasingly clear that actual beds are not going to be the limiting factor... Its going to be staff,

If you have 10-20% of your health workforce either sick with COVID or isolating as close contacts until they get a neg test then you have a huge capacity problem,...

Thats playing out in OZ, the "big sick"

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tdgeek

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#2849494 12-Jan-2022 18:28

ajobbins:

Scott3:

But wow. 65 cases in a single day. Glad my rough estimate some weeks back of one MIQ leak per 50 positive cases has turned out to be false.

"We have carried out research with Australian colleagues to look at the frequency of border failures. In the past, we've had about one border failure per 100 infected people entering MIQ in New Zealand - or an average of one per 167 people across New Zealand and Australia." Prof. Baker, NZ Herald 10/01/2022

So hopefully infection control protocols have improved a lot, otherwise at this point you're well overdue for a leak - because that 1/100 actual number is Delta.

Have we had 1800 leaks? IIRC the clear leaks are countable on a hand or two. Ok border failures are not leaks, but the border and MIQ are not prisons. If we operated a Chine or PRK scenario it would be a lot less. Or we could ban residents. What do we do?

Scott3

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#2849519 12-Jan-2022 18:59

tdgeek:

ajobbins:

"We have carried out research with Australian colleagues to look at the frequency of border failures. In the past, we've had about one border failure per 100 infected people entering MIQ in New Zealand - or an average of one per 167 people across New Zealand and Australia." Prof. Baker, NZ Herald 10/01/2022

So hopefully infection control protocols have improved a lot, otherwise at this point you're well overdue for a leak - because that 1/100 actual number is Delta.

Have we had 1800 leaks? IIRC the clear leaks are countable on a hand or two. Ok border failures are not leaks, but the border and MIQ are not prisons. If we operated a Chine or PRK scenario it would be a lot less. Or we could ban residents. What do we do?

Border failures per 100 infected in MIQ (with delta). The vast majority of the 212,263 people who have been through MIQ haven't been infected.

I have been using the term "Leaks" as slang for border failures.

No body expects MIQ to be prefect, Realistically we would have to fully close the boarder to passengers to keep omicron out long term. Long term I don't think that is workable, so MIQ is just about buying a little extra time to get ready.

SJB

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#2849571 12-Jan-2022 22:58

There have been 207 MIQ cases since the start of December, the vast majority omicron. I think that 65 might have been in the last week.

So that's about 5 per day.

Ge0rge

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#2849576 12-Jan-2022 23:05

SJB:
There have been 207 MIQ cases since the start of December, the vast majority omicron. I think that 65 might have been in the last week.

So that's about 5 per day.

see here

Your 5 per day average was correct over a month ago with Delta. The current daily average is around 30.

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