2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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5042 posts

Uber Geek

#2859904 1-Feb-2022 13:18

tdgeek:

quickymart:

Opinion piece extolling why MIQ should be removed:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/127644810/covid19-why-the-bellis-should-be-tolled-for-miq

If MIQ was dropped Omicron would flood NZ, there are many arriving daily, so why flood NZ now, while we are getting the laggards vaccinated, and more importantly, boosting those that are due or near due and the 5-11yo's? There will be a time when it wont matter, that's not now. If anyone wants Omicron to invade NZ sooner, then they should say that. "Buying Time" is what we have been doing to maximise our overall protection.

We're testing over 100 new positive cases a day, so they'll be many more untested cases in the community than that. The argument isn't that anyone wants Omicron in the community sooner, that ship has sailed because it's here already. The question that remains is how much MIQ isolations slow it down compared to self-isolation. At this point I'd question how much of a difference it will make. Many here seem to assume that if MIQ rules were changed that every new arrival would just immediately flout the rules and infect everyone, I think most (but not all) people are better than that and can be trusted.

Slowing the spread of Omicron could, in theory, be used as justification for all sorts of draconian measures. Who decides at which point a measure can't be justified anymore?

Questioning if the original (or Delta) strategy is appropriate against Omicron doesn't mean someone wants to flood the country with disease. Nor does it mean that they don't understand the rationale of those arguing to keep MIQ as is.

Regardless, I'd wager the explosion has already happened - we just can't see it yet.

SJB

2945 posts

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Inactive user

#2859921 1-Feb-2022 13:27

Paul1977:

Regardless, I'd wager the explosion has already happened - we just can't see it yet.

The numbers aren't exploding yet. The next couple of weeks should tell us so why not wait and see before abandoning MIQ and guaranteeing they do explode.

tdgeek

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#2859923 1-Feb-2022 13:30

Paul1977:

We're testing over 100 new positive cases a day, so they'll be many more untested cases in the community than that. The argument isn't that anyone wants Omicron in the community sooner, that ship has sailed because it's here already. The question that remains is how much MIQ isolations slow it down compared to self-isolation. At this point I'd question how much of a difference it will make. Many here seem to assume that if MIQ rules were changed that every new arrival would just immediately flout the rules and infect everyone, I think most (but not all) people are better than that and can be trusted.

Slowing the spread of Omicron could, in theory, be used as justification for all sorts of draconian measures. Who decides at which point a measure can't be justified anymore?

Questioning if the original (or Delta) strategy is appropriate against Omicron doesn't mean someone wants to flood the country with disease. Nor does it mean that they don't understand the rationale of those arguing to keep MIQ as is.

Regardless, I'd wager the explosion has already happened - we just can't see it yet.

If its an explosion now then, we can remove all measures?

126 today and 70 at the border, its hardly exploding although the community cases will be higher. It will be 200 per day from tomorrow and 400 a day by Friday according to the experts, although these predictions never seem to arrive on time, but the tested actuals are just trending up

But if the ship has sailed then surely we can remove all restrictions? Not my idea, but "The argument isn't that anyone wants Omicron in the community sooner" it actually is, so we can enjoy freedom and business prosperity. I recall mid April 2020, its too long its too much. Same deal

tdgeek

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#2859924 1-Feb-2022 13:32

SJB:

The numbers aren't exploding yet. The next couple of weeks should tell us so why not wait and see before abandoning MIQ and guaranteeing they do explode.

And while we can all go shopping, and have a high level of freedom, lets stop lives exploding too.

KrazyKid

1238 posts

Uber Geek

#2859927 1-Feb-2022 13:34

If I ran MIQ I'd wait until local cases got to ~1000+ per day, then open home isolation.
No point added 50% extra cases a day into the community at this stage.

Most people will do the right thing, but not all so you have to play it safe currently.

I figure that means by the end of the March at the latest we should be offering home isolation to travelers.

I'll be interested to see what the government announces (The cabinet is discussing this very thing this arvo)

Paul1977

5042 posts

Uber Geek

#2859980 1-Feb-2022 13:51

SJB:

Paul1977:

Regardless, I'd wager the explosion has already happened - we just can't see it yet.

The numbers aren't exploding yet. The next couple of weeks should tell us so why not wait and see before abandoning MIQ and guaranteeing they do explode.

The positive test results aren't exploding yet, but it is VERY possible (I'd say likely) that the actual number in the community is orders of magnitude above those numbers.

"Wait and see" is a perfectly reasonable argument to make and at this point in time I have no real issue with that, since the actual case numbers aren't known. But I also think it's reasonable at this point to question it as well.

wellygary

8316 posts

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#2859983 1-Feb-2022 13:55

SJB:

Paul1977:

Regardless, I'd wager the explosion has already happened - we just can't see it yet.

The numbers aren't exploding yet. The next couple of weeks should tell us so why not wait and see before abandoning MIQ and guaranteeing they do explode.

It depends on your definition of exploding I guess. - we're certainly getting huge growth rates, its just off a very low base ATM.

The 7 day average of cases has gone from 30 cases on Jan 27th to 84 today ( 5 days) , based on the last 6 days figures, the 7 day average will be easily over 100 tomorrow,

Also while the numbers we are testing are still comparatively low there are probably another 3-400 asymptomatic cases based on 125 positive tests today...

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ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#2859984 1-Feb-2022 13:56

KrazyKid, You're not so crazy afterall.

Numbers of cases are in a region where we are able to trace and link up many for a while yet.
Potentially we are already suppressing the initial slope of curve.
So cases concentrated around usual areas so far. Maybe delayed things by a week ?

Problem of removing MIQ is that numbers travelling would also explode by factor of 10, 100, or more ?
Plus two way travel leaving for reunions with family, shopping trips and holidays.

So 79 caught at border under restricted travel, may become 790 or more to seed clusters over wide geography.
They then have to move around the country to get to their 'Home', which may be rather notional as many may not reside here.
Due to privacy we won't be tracking them like some other nations do, and there is little capacity to monitor 10,000s.

Once we have large numbers of cases of that scale then there is sense.
Though those struggling to maintain services in Hospitals may not think having more is a good idea.
It seems a bit early to do this tomorrow.
1/2 vaccinated children and all.

Northland for goodness sake , get vaccinated ...

Paul1977

5042 posts

Uber Geek

#2859986 1-Feb-2022 13:58

tdgeek:

If its an explosion now then, we can remove all measures?

126 today and 70 at the border, its hardly exploding although the community cases will be higher. It will be 200 per day from tomorrow and 400 a day by Friday according to the experts, although these predictions never seem to arrive on time, but the tested actuals are just trending up

But if the ship has sailed then surely we can remove all restrictions? Not my idea, but "The argument isn't that anyone wants Omicron in the community sooner" it actually is, so we can enjoy freedom and business prosperity. I recall mid April 2020, its too long its too much. Same deal

So questioning the cost vs benefit of one specific measure means I want to throw all measures out?

ajobbins

5052 posts

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#2860037 1-Feb-2022 14:07

ezbee:

Problem of removing MIQ is that numbers travelling would also explode by factor of 10, 100, or more ?
Plus two way travel leaving for reunions with family, shopping trips and holidays.

I think the right thing to do is wait until community cases numbers are such that any inbound travellers are equivalent or lower risk than the general community. If just about every other jurisdiction is anything to go by that will probably not be too far away.

But I think it's prudent that return travellers still need pre-departure testing and a period of isolation at home with testing. Yes, this will not be fully effective or complied with but the majority will and that will make a huge difference to potential seeding.

As someone who has flights booked back to NZ in March and may well actually be able to travel, I am fine with a period of isolation as a protective measure and quite happy if the NZ government wants to put some pretty hefty fines in place for those not compliant.

Once the community risk exceeds the border risk MIQ becomes purely ideological - but NZ is not at that point yet so right now it's still serving a useful purpose

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Scott3

3964 posts

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Lifetime subscriber

#2860038 1-Feb-2022 14:09

tdgeek:

Paul1977:

We're testing over 100 new positive cases a day, so they'll be many more untested cases in the community than that. The argument isn't that anyone wants Omicron in the community sooner, that ship has sailed because it's here already. The question that remains is how much MIQ isolations slow it down compared to self-isolation. At this point I'd question how much of a difference it will make. Many here seem to assume that if MIQ rules were changed that every new arrival would just immediately flout the rules and infect everyone, I think most (but not all) people are better than that and can be trusted.

Slowing the spread of Omicron could, in theory, be used as justification for all sorts of draconian measures. Who decides at which point a measure can't be justified anymore?

Questioning if the original (or Delta) strategy is appropriate against Omicron doesn't mean someone wants to flood the country with disease. Nor does it mean that they don't understand the rationale of those arguing to keep MIQ as is.

Regardless, I'd wager the explosion has already happened - we just can't see it yet.

If its an explosion now then, we can remove all measures?

126 today and 70 at the border, its hardly exploding although the community cases will be higher. It will be 200 per day from tomorrow and 400 a day by Friday according to the experts, although these predictions never seem to arrive on time, but the tested actuals are just trending up

But if the ship has sailed then surely we can remove all restrictions? Not my idea, but "The argument isn't that anyone wants Omicron in the community sooner" it actually is, so we can enjoy freedom and business prosperity. I recall mid April 2020, its too long its too much. Same deal

126 in the community and 79 at the border.

I think if all border measures were removed, volume of travel would increase by at least a factor of 10. (for sure my partner would be going on a short trip to see family). If that held true, and the same positive rate, today would have had 790 additional cases to add to our 126.

If we are running a 3 day doubling time (1.26 daily mutiplier), in 9 days:

With current closed border, we would have 1008 daily cases
With no border restrictions (giving an additional 790 daily cases), we would have 28,615 daily cases.

I think we we have say 10,000 daily cases (approx 19 days away if the 3 day doubling period holds true), it would be appropriate to open the border. 790 a day is small fry compared to 10,000 local cases.

But I don't think we should be rushing to do anything before that point. Despite yesterday being a public holiday, over 30,000 vaccine doses were given, including 691 first doses for people 12+. We need that 19 days before we hit 10k daily cases to keep vaccinating, and do other omicron prep. The combination of people coming up to their 4 months for boosters & only having done about 1/3rd of kiddies 5 - 11 means that every day makes a material difference to our level of vaccination.

At a personal level, I am going away next weekend, and would rather omicron wasn't yet rampant for that long weekend.

If I was running the show, I would be locking in the current end of Feb date for the end of MIQ for fully vaccinated citizens and residents (from countries not deemed very high risk). Big questions are:

Should we extend beyond that, and simply open to everybody at once.
Should we ditch self isolation for arrivals (where we have had ongoing issues about compliance / enforcement, which will end up a political pain point).

wellygary

8316 posts

Uber Geek

#2860043 1-Feb-2022 14:25

Scott3:

If I was running the show, I would be locking in the current end of Feb date for the end of MIQ for fully vaccinated citizens and residents (from countries not deemed very high risk). Big questions are:

Should we extend beyond that, and simply open to everybody at once.
Should we ditch self isolation for arrivals (where we have had ongoing issues about compliance / enforcement, which will end up a political pain point).

QLD went from pretty much COVID 0 to peak of 22,000 tested cases in about a month ( 14 Dec-14 Dec) - they are currently around 7K daily. -

They have so far had around 200 deaths in their omicron outbreak.. - this is what NZ has to lface over the next 1-2 months... but its still better than the 1000s of deaths that would have occurred in a comparable Delta or Original strain outbreak

By late Feb we will not be worrying about the border any more... BUT with the global aviation sector still being fragile and limited, people need time to plan ahead, if they are going to go to Self isolation or nothing for Boosted+ neg tested for March . then people need to know in the next couple of weeks...

vexxxboy

4244 posts

Uber Geek

#2860053 1-Feb-2022 14:44

personally and being very selfish , my booster is in a week if we could keep it slightly under control at both border and community until then i would be grateful , and i would not be the only one.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

rugrat

3107 posts

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Lifetime subscriber

#2860128 1-Feb-2022 16:29

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/02/58-million-covid-19-rapid-antigen-tests-secured-as-modelling-shows-demand-could-reach-9-million-a-week.amp.html

36 million more supply of rapid tests secured over two months. Brings total to 58 million. Demand for tests at peak could reach 9 million a week.

Reanalyse

381 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2860139 1-Feb-2022 16:45

elpenguino:

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/laurence-fox-covid-vaccine-ivermectin-b2003899.html

Laurence Fox, another noisy alt-right anti vax idiot, contracts covid.

Hopefully it'll finish him off.

Please do not wish death on another, no matter how you find their philosophy and choices.

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