2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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169 posts

Master Geek

#2861831 4-Feb-2022 17:00

Protesters Call For Andrew Little's Arrest

Up to 200 protestors gathered outside the New Plymouth police station on Friday to demand Health Minister Andrew Little be arrested.

Former Taranaki Regional Council candidate Brett Power addressed the crowd, which had gathered on the lawn opposite the police station and outside the courthouse.

People just need to get a fuc*en life and let people choose what they want to do with their body.

kyhwana2

2566 posts

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#2861833 4-Feb-2022 17:14

HelloThere:

Novavax Gains Provisional Approval

One step closer to our local mayor getting the jab.

Nope, she's now said she won't get it, because she "did some more research" and found out that it was "experimental". Obvious anti-vaxxer rhetoric is obvious.

freitasm

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Geekzone

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#2861835 4-Feb-2022 17:16

The moving goal post is always there but they never reach it.

Anti-vaxxers are bio-terrorists.

SJB

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#2861847 4-Feb-2022 18:16

I don't know how the 50,000 a day could ever be considered possible.

US - 800,000 per day - pop 330 million

UK - 180,000 per day - pop 65 million

On that basis NZ wouldn't pass about 13,000 per day. And we are much less crowded then the UK and far, far fewer large urban areas than the US.

Maybe it hasn't really taken off because it hasn't taken hold yet in any highly populated areas other than Auckland.

cshwone

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#2861853 4-Feb-2022 18:44

In this article on Stuff:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300511192/ba2-is-like-omicrons-sister-heres-what-we-know-about-it-so-far

I can't quite get my head around the following:

"It may be more infectious

Perhaps most concerning is emerging evidence BA.2 may be more infectious than the original Omicron, BA.1.

A preliminary study from Denmark, where BA.2 has largely replaced BA.1, suggests BA.2 increases unvaccinated people’s susceptibility of infection by just over two times when compared to BA.1.

The researchers suggest fully vaccinated people are 2.5 times more susceptible to BA.2 than BA.1, and those who were booster vaccinated are nearly three times more susceptible."

ezbee

2405 posts

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#2861854 4-Feb-2022 18:45

SJB

The model was indicating possible 11,000 a day 'confirmed' cases, 7.6K with 80% masking.
Larger 70K plus number was estimated number of cases in the community in total,
no confirmed test, may not even know they are infected, worst case, no masks.

News organizations went for the headline number not looking further into detail,
as did the various other voices wanting to discredit.

Its also done by an international organization based on what they see in other countries.
So more something to compare with our modelling as part of a spectrum of possibilities.

You can play with parameters here by clicking buttons.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/new-zealand?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections

Tap clinical button and you get 11K .

Of course our lower population density and probably low mobility index, and we bend numbers.

Ge0rge

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#2861856 4-Feb-2022 19:17

cshwone:
In this article on Stuff:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300511192/ba2-is-like-omicrons-sister-heres-what-we-know-about-it-so-far

I can't quite get my head around the following:

"It may be more infectious

Perhaps most concerning is emerging evidence BA.2 may be more infectious than the original Omicron, BA.1.

A preliminary study from Denmark, where BA.2 has largely replaced BA.1, suggests BA.2 increases unvaccinated people’s susceptibility of infection by just over two times when compared to BA.1.

The researchers suggest fully vaccinated people are 2.5 times more susceptible to BA.2 than BA.1, and those who were booster vaccinated are nearly three times more susceptible."

I swear that says because I'm boosted I'm more likely to get it than someone who is unvaccinated.

Should this be in "Stuff screws up again" thread?

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Oblivian

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#2861858 4-Feb-2022 19:22

So turns out the 50k model was made overseas. By someone whos never been in the kiwi community or seen our day to day.

The NZ based ones are going, sigh
Is also a distinction between cases, and infections.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/02/04/kiwi-expert-explains-why-modelling-for-peak-omicron-cases-missed-mark/

cshwone

1070 posts

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#2861861 4-Feb-2022 19:34

Ge0rge:
cshwone:
In this article on Stuff:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300511192/ba2-is-like-omicrons-sister-heres-what-we-know-about-it-so-far

I can't quite get my head around the following:

"It may be more infectious

Perhaps most concerning is emerging evidence BA.2 may be more infectious than the original Omicron, BA.1.

A preliminary study from Denmark, where BA.2 has largely replaced BA.1, suggests BA.2 increases unvaccinated people’s susceptibility of infection by just over two times when compared to BA.1.

The researchers suggest fully vaccinated people are 2.5 times more susceptible to BA.2 than BA.1, and those who were booster vaccinated are nearly three times more susceptible."

I swear that says because I'm boosted I'm more likely to get it than someone who is unvaccinated.

Should this be in "Stuff screws up again" thread?

Unfortunately Stuff are quoting from the abstract. Just doesn't make sense

debo

307 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2861869 4-Feb-2022 20:17

cshwone:

I swear that says because I'm boosted I'm more likely to get it than someone who is unvaccinated.

Should this be in "Stuff screws up again" thread?

Unfortunately Stuff are quoting from the abstract. Just doesn't make sense

No. No. No. Try reading the words.

They are comparing BA1 to BA2. So boosters work 3x better against BA1 than BA2.

Scott3

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#2861870 4-Feb-2022 20:24

kyhwana2:

HelloThere:

Novavax Gains Provisional Approval

One step closer to our local mayor getting the jab.

Nope, she's now said she won't get it, because she "did some more research" and found out that it was "experimental". Obvious anti-vaxxer rhetoric is obvious.

NZ herald is running the story with the below breaking news ticker:

Thames-Coromandel mayor who was 'waiting for Novavax' jab now says she won't get that Covid vaccine either

HelloThere

169 posts

Master Geek

#2861872 4-Feb-2022 20:35

Scott3:

NZ herald is running the story with the below breaking news ticker:

Thames-Coromandel mayor who was 'waiting for Novavax' jab now says she won't get that Covid vaccine either

I guess she won't be on the voting list next year then.

alexx

867 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2861873 4-Feb-2022 20:54

Oblivian: So turns out the 50k model was made overseas. By someone whos never been in the kiwi community or seen our day to day.

The NZ based ones are going, sigh
Is also a distinction between cases, and infections.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/02/04/kiwi-expert-explains-why-modelling-for-peak-omicron-cases-missed-mark/

There seems to be a problem with that link, but I think this is the one.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/02/04/kiwi-expert-explains-why-modelling-for-peak-omicron-cases-missed-mark/

Which in turn, point to this one:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/new-zealand?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

It's IHME and perhaps they know something about the situation in the US, but given how much of a failure the US response to COVID has been, I'm not sure if we can even say that.

Their predictions for NZ have been pretty bad since 2020. I think they just do some trend analysis without looking at any underlying causes or they assume the models that work for the US are correct everywhere. I'm almost certain they don't even differentiate between MIQ and community cases or anything like that.

Also from that same chart, they seem to think our current Covid death toll as of Feb 04 is 75 deaths. I'm not sure where that one comes from and it's 53 according to Our World in Data and most other sources.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

Jase2985

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#2861876 4-Feb-2022 21:14

How much money were they given to compile that garbage?

quickymart

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#2861887 4-Feb-2022 22:33

HelloThere:

Scott3:

NZ herald is running the story with the below breaking news ticker:

Thames-Coromandel mayor who was 'waiting for Novavax' jab now says she won't get that Covid vaccine either

I guess she won't be on the voting list next year then.

She shouldn't be in politics at all with that attitude. See my other comment re don't get your medical information off social media (or, Google).

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