2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2871770 21-Feb-2022 07:11

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-record-numbers-continue-as-rats-become-more-accessible/Y3LUMAJQBBO4BRX4HYY3IYXVPE/

'Cut household contacts isolation to three days'

Paul1977

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#2871883 21-Feb-2022 11:33

It is still the early stages of the wave, but the low hospitalization rate (and currently no-one in ICU) would seem to indicate that the combination of high vaccines numbers and the lower severity of Omicron means we're unlikely to see death rates anything like other countries did earlier in the pandemic.

A quick Google suggests that historically 200,000 people get the influenza in NZ annually, resulting in 500 deaths. For comparison (based on the current numbers) we should be expecting about 1400 Covid hospitalizations per 200,000 cases. That means that unless more than a third of hospitalized cases result in death, then Omicron isn't even as deadly as the flu.

I can't find the data right now, but I know that Omicron doesn't result in death in anywhere near a third of hospitalized cases. Not even Delta had a rate that high.

Obviously a single point-in-time extrapolation is by no means definitive, but if it proves accurate over time then the current measures would seem to be a wholly disproportionate response to the threat.

If any of my numbers are incorrect, please let me know.

EDIT: This is an interesting site for looking a risk stats. Based on Australia, but you'd think would be relatively applicable here.

Senecio

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#2871925 21-Feb-2022 12:28

Have you ever stopped to think that the measures are responsible for that low threat?

Buster

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#2871939 21-Feb-2022 12:32

2014 to 2022 Flu v Covid 19 deaths in the US.

https://www.familiesfightingflu.org/flu-deaths-vs-covid-19-deaths/#:~:text=CDC%20estimates%20that%20flu%20has,annually%20between%202010%20and%202020.

debo

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#2872028 21-Feb-2022 14:00

Buster:
2014 to 2022 Flu v Covid 19 deaths in the US.

You bet me to it.

I seems people are concerned that these high death rates caused by a combination of unvaccinated people and deadly strains will apply now. There is zero scientific evidence that this is the case.

mattwnz

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#2872048 21-Feb-2022 14:28

Sadly a couple of deaths today at the hospital. So I guess the daily death numbers will now start increasing and we will get to daily double digits. Interesting that it doesn't appear they were in ICU, unless the person yesterday that went into ICU died, and a new one went in today.

Also it appears that police at the protests are infected, so guessing it means that it is spreading in the protest area, even though it is outside. So people should keep well clear of that area. I see Wellington hospital is telling protestors not to just show up if they are symptoms and they should go back home to wherever they came from or go to a GP first for treatment and home management. Looks like it is a super spreader event now and why events with lots of people in one area aren't permitted.

vexxxboy

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#2872056 21-Feb-2022 14:35

mattwnz:

A couple of deaths today at the hospital, so I guess the daily death numbers will now start increasing and we will get to daily double digits. Interesting that it doesn't appear they were in ICU, unless the person yesterday that went into ICU died, and a new one went in today.

Also it appears that police at the protests are infected, so guessing it means that it is spreading in the protest area, even though it is outside. So people should keep well clear of that area. I see Wellington hospital is telling protestors not to just show up if they are symptoms and they should go back home to wherever they came from or go to a GP first. Looks like it is a super spreader event now.

i would say that those deaths , sad that they are , will be the sort that they died of what they were in hospital for but they were diagnosed with covid while in there so are classed as a covid death.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

mattwnz

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#2872058 21-Feb-2022 14:36

vexxxboy:

mattwnz:

A couple of deaths today at the hospital, so I guess the daily death numbers will now start increasing and we will get to daily double digits. Interesting that it doesn't appear they were in ICU, unless the person yesterday that went into ICU died, and a new one went in today.

Also it appears that police at the protests are infected, so guessing it means that it is spreading in the protest area, even though it is outside. So people should keep well clear of that area. I see Wellington hospital is telling protestors not to just show up if they are symptoms and they should go back home to wherever they came from or go to a GP first. Looks like it is a super spreader event now.

i would say that those deaths , sad that they are , will be the sort that they died of what they were in hospital for but they were diagnosed with covid while in there so are classed as a covid death.

It is hard to know. Dying with covid, or dying from covid. It maybe a mixture of both.

Batman

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#2872064 21-Feb-2022 14:41

mattwnz:

Also it appears that police at the protests are infected, so guessing it means that it is spreading in the protest area, even though it is outside. So people should keep well clear of that area. I see Wellington hospital is telling protestors not to just show up if they are symptoms and they should go back home to wherever they came from or go to a GP first for treatment and home management. Looks like it is a super spreader event now and why events with lots of people in one area aren't permitted.

if that's true, it appears that the protestors are not getting sick

Oblivian

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#2872084 21-Feb-2022 15:07

PM went live at 3 to address.. well. You know.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-address-protests-support-for-business-as-omicron-case-numbers-swell/P4OBH5GPAYXAC5FN36NZDICEOQ/

No fixed date.

Batman

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#2872091 21-Feb-2022 15:16

Oblivian:

PM went live at 3 to address.. well. You know.

No fixed date.

i thought she said after 6 weeks (ie after March when "numbers drop drastically" AND "unvaccinated people have been exposed to covid") there could be change

Jas777

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#2872100 21-Feb-2022 15:39

Batman:

mattwnz:

Also it appears that police at the protests are infected, so guessing it means that it is spreading in the protest area, even though it is outside. So people should keep well clear of that area. I see Wellington hospital is telling protestors not to just show up if they are symptoms and they should go back home to wherever they came from or go to a GP first for treatment and home management. Looks like it is a super spreader event now and why events with lots of people in one area aren't permitted.

if that's true, it appears that the protestors are not getting sick

They won't be getting sick if they catch it as a certain percentage (up to half) are fully vaxxed and if you look at the age and body shapes of them then they don't fall into the groups that get really sick from it.

Also the evidence from overseas says that mask wearing doesn't have that much effect and even Michael Plank has admitted as much.

With reference to super spreader events does a group of 1000 people outdoors spread anymore than 10 churches with 100 people inside?

ezbee

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#2872104 21-Feb-2022 15:47

Batman:

mattwnz:

Also it appears that police at the protests are infected, so guessing it means that it is spreading in the protest area, even though it is outside. So people should keep well clear of that area. I see Wellington hospital is telling protestors not to just show up if they are symptoms and they should go back home to wherever they came from or go to a GP first for treatment and home management. Looks like it is a super spreader event now and why events with lots of people in one area aren't permitted.

if that's true, it appears that the protestors are not getting sick

How would we know given the rotating shifts of protesters ?

Its true, most of the protesters won't get very sick.
Plus some groups in there are well known for their deceptiveness, so leaders have got vaccinated perhaps ?

However you do see a good number of grey hair and people of high BMI, a beer gut may not be protection.
So a portion, however when they get very sick they will leave and keep quiet so you will never know.

Of course you don't know if your genetics throw a curve ball,
and you are amongst the young and vulnerable till you are.

For many this is one big infection party complete with a herbal remedy tent.
The smell of chlorine in the morning.
Long covid is a long time away , it will be all over by then.

antonknee

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#2872153 21-Feb-2022 15:53

If you watch the protestors who live stream themselves (eg on TikTok) a number of them do seem to have a cough and flu-like symptoms...

Also let's be honest, that group of people are unlikely to do things like go and get a Covid test so how would we know.

Batman

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#2872156 21-Feb-2022 16:02

what i'm saying is, if they are infected and not unwell then ... who is right

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