2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2873791 24-Feb-2022 11:25

Batman:

we are in the guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2022/feb/22/two-years-have-passed-since-the-covid-pandemic-began-but-new-zealand-icus-still-arent-ready

again can you please stop just dropping links

Give some summary of what you are posting.

tdgeek

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#2873814 24-Feb-2022 11:35

Batman:

we are in the guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2022/feb/22/two-years-have-passed-since-the-covid-pandemic-began-but-new-zealand-icus-still-arent-ready

True we didnt start building extra ICU's on March 26 2020. But we always had low ICU's, is it easy to build 5 x as many as we have now? And when this is over we can easily flip them to be regular units? And there is plenty of room on the grounds of every hospital?

It strikes me that NZ has and is doing very well, as we tried to avoid deaths and leave the inevitable outbreak until we were vaxxed, unlike everywhere else.

So, its time to pick on us? Id assume that NZ has had more freedom from 2020 than most other places, and less deaths per capita, is that not important?

Jas777

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#2873826 24-Feb-2022 11:42

tdgeek:

True we didnt start building extra ICU's on March 26 2020. But we always had low ICU's, is it easy to build 5 x as many as we have now? And when this is over we can easily flip them to be regular units? And there is plenty of room on the grounds of every hospital?

It strikes me that NZ has and is doing very well, as we tried to avoid deaths and leave the inevitable outbreak until we were vaxxed, unlike everywhere else.

So, its time to pick on us? Id assume that NZ has had more freedom from 2020 than most other places, and less deaths per capita, is that not important?

Two parts to it. One is creating the physical space including equipment, the other is staffing it.

Part 1 is the easier part. Part 2 is more difficult.

ICU staff especially nurses don't grow on trees and take time to get up to speed. And part of the problem will be money especially pay rates. The current collectives don't reward highly specialist nurses anymore than general nurses.

Oblivian

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#2873912 24-Feb-2022 12:14

As expected, phase 3 from midnight

Positive cases, and household contact's isolation ONLY. Everyone else is 'monitor for symptoms'

It's now on the people. Not the tracers. And the means to use RAT to test before entering high risk locations.

wellygary

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#2873921 24-Feb-2022 12:23

Oblivian: As expected, phase 3 from midnight

Positive cases, and household contact's isolation ONLY. Everyone else is 'monitor for symptoms'

It's now on the people. Not the tracers. And the means to use RAT to test before entering high risk locations.

Also confirmed that we are +5000 cases today... thats up from 1500 a week ago.. so we are well on the exp curve....

surfisup1000

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#2873958 24-Feb-2022 12:46

wellygary:

Also confirmed that we are +5000 cases today... thats up from 1500 a week ago.. so we are well on the exp curve....

The overseas experience with omicron, daily cases peak around 3,000 per million people.

In NZ, my prediction is that daily cases will rise from 500 cases per day, quickly reach 14,900 per day, before settling back down to 500 cases a day for a while.

I 'guess' this by applying the same curve that happens overseas, but adjusted for population.

It'll be hard to tell exactly though, because testing does not show actual numbers.

I'm a bit worried about hospital bed numbers, despite omicron being less severe we do have a fair number in hospital.

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johno1234

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#2873974 24-Feb-2022 13:03

surfisup1000:

wellygary:

Also confirmed that we are +5000 cases today... thats up from 1500 a week ago.. so we are well on the exp curve....

The overseas experience with omicron, daily cases peak around 3,000 per million people.

In NZ, my prediction is that daily cases will rise from 500 cases per day, quickly reach 14,900 per day, before settling back down to 500 cases a day for a while.

I 'guess' this by applying the same curve that happens overseas, but adjusted for population.

It'll be hard to tell exactly though, because testing does not show actual numbers.

I'm a bit worried about hospital bed numbers, despite omicron being less severe we do have a fair number in hospital.

Have they ever said, of the hospital count, how many are "by COVID" vs "with COVID"? Without that, it's not possible to know anything useful. As of yesterday 1 in 5 admissions to Middlemore are testing positive.

ajobbins

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#2873980 24-Feb-2022 13:13

surfisup1000:

The overseas experience with omicron, daily cases peak around 3,000 per million people.

Excluding outliers (such as RAT reporting catch up after launch) the cases here in VIC peaked at probably around 35,000 cases, which is about 5,200 per million.

So you may seen cases peak closer to 25,000 than 15,000. But a lot of that depends on how many positive people are actually testing and how it actually spreads around the population.

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ajobbins

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#2873992 24-Feb-2022 13:18

johno1234:

Have they ever said, of the hospital count, how many are "by COVID" vs "with COVID"? Without that, it's not possible to know anything useful. As of yesterday 1 in 5 admissions to Middlemore are testing positive.

NSW at one point said that more than 50% of people testing positive in hospital were admitted for 'other reasons'. However, some of those may have then gone on to be hospitalised for covid anyway, or whatever they presented for was caused or worsened by covid but classified as something else. So really it's hard to say, but the proportion is still probably quite high.

The hospital number also included mothers giving birth who tested positive, for example. Some of those mothers may have ended up in hospital for covid regardless, but it's quite hard to seperate them out.

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tdgeek

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#2873998 24-Feb-2022 13:21

ajobbins:

NSW at one point said that more than 50% of people testing positive in hospital were admitted for 'other reasons'. However, some of those may have then gone on to be hospitalised for covid anyway, or whatever they presented for was caused or worsened by covid but classified as something else. So really it's hard to say, but the proportion is still probably quite high.

The hospital number also included mothers giving birth who tested positive, for example. Some of those mothers may have ended up in hospital for covid regardless, but it's quite hard to seperate them out.

What were the hospital numbers and ICU numbers at peak?

ajobbins

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#2874017 24-Feb-2022 13:39

tdgeek:

What were the hospital numbers and ICU numbers at peak?

There is a heap of data here: https://covidlive.com.au/

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#2874040 24-Feb-2022 13:53

+6K case

+1 death at Middlemore.

Bleak.

surfisup1000

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#2874041 24-Feb-2022 13:54

ajobbins:

surfisup1000:

The overseas experience with omicron, daily cases peak around 3,000 per million people.

Excluding outliers (such as RAT reporting catch up after launch) the cases here in VIC peaked at probably around 35,000 cases, which is about 5,200 per million.

So you may seen cases peak closer to 25,000 than 15,000. But a lot of that depends on how many positive people are actually testing and how it actually spreads around the population.

Tricky to guess really, cases exceed testing capacity, people don't bother testing, etc... i figured my estimate was conservative.... could also be higher due to being the first covid wave to hit NZ.

I'd say a range between 15 and 30 thousand could be reasonable for estimating the peak daily cases -- peak doesn't last long though.

heavenlywild

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#2874043 24-Feb-2022 13:58

Had to come, "glad" it's happening in summer, and I don't say I am "glad" as in I am happy, more "glad" that it's not in the middle of winter which is likely to cause even more havoc.

mattwnz

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#2874093 24-Feb-2022 14:50

heavenlywild:

Had to come, "glad" it's happening in summer, and I don't say I am "glad" as in I am happy, more "glad" that it's not in the middle of winter which is likely to cause even more havoc.

The issue for NZ is that a variant could come in in winter, and we are then pretty vulnerable if it is more deadly but just as infectious, due to our MIQ barrier effectively being down. Then immunity from vaccines maybe waning in late winter.

In terms of the peak, I see that modeling showed that NZ could hit a peak of 80,000 a day. Guessing that is actual cases, not just people that got tested, as actual cases are a lot higher today than just 6000. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-modelling-suggests-nz-could-face-peak-of-80000-daily-infections/TAH4ABKCQ3ZPMNK5FVWQTVE4FE/ But this modeling shows that it should have spread faster than it currently has

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