2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2443744 22-Mar-2020 14:05

I’m not generally a fan of government interference in life.

However, it occurred to me that one thing the government could usefully do is introduce legislation that prevents banks or landlords evicting people until this is over.

People will lose jobs and any government assistance is very unlikely to cover most mortgages in the main centres.

The last thing we need with people being told to stay home is them having their homes removed.

mattwnz

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#2443745 22-Mar-2020 14:05

gchiu:

So flattening the curve is a disaster. We need to eradicate this disease.

Exactly. I am not sure why we are even entertaining the idea that flattening the curve is the best case for us. We are supposed to be in the 'stamp it out phase' according to the stuff website at least. TH eonly way to do that is get people isolated from one another so they can't spread it. Some people are not doing what they should be doing and self isolating, or doing it properly, and you only need a few of these to cause CT.

Hibino

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#2443747 22-Mar-2020 14:06

Just another rumor on internet:

Try to get some masks before everyone is in panic, or make you own using kitchen tower, like a Japanese video showed how. Use masks when you go to supermarket where full of people, and remember which part of your body/cloth touched things that touched by a lot of people(door handle, eftpos machine etc), wash them, the virus can survive longer enough on your body/cloth till you get home.

mattwnz

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#2443748 22-Mar-2020 14:08

Geektastic: I’m not generally a fan of government interference in life.

However, it occurred to me that one thing the government could usefully do is introduce legislation that prevents banks or landlords evicting people until this is over.

People will lose jobs and any government assistance is very unlikely to cover most mortgages in the main centres.

The last thing we need with people being told to stay home is them having their homes removed.

I think in the US they have introducded something that prevents people being kicked out of their house over this.

If house prices hadn' t been allowed to get so out of control and rise to such extremely high prices, allowing more people to own their homes outright it may not be such a problem. Currently it is a big mess.

UncleArk

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#2443749 22-Mar-2020 14:09

freitasm: Hospitality owners should be enforcing a lot of it with the rules out now. And perhaps educating their patrons too...

We went out this morning... got a takeaway coffee from a cafe, but from the indoor counter. We had to fill in a register which asked for our name, home address, contact phone number and email address.

While out we also bought a takeaway pastry from a very small bakery. Again, had to fill in the contact register.

I fully understand the need... the cynical part of me wonders what will happen to this information as it seems to be a marketing goldmine...

Geektastic

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#2443751 22-Mar-2020 14:11

mattwnz:
Geektastic: I’m not generally a fan of government interference in life.

However, it occurred to me that one thing the government could usefully do is introduce legislation that prevents banks or landlords evicting people until this is over.

People will lose jobs and any government assistance is very unlikely to cover most mortgages in the main centres.

The last thing we need with people being told to stay home is them having their homes removed.

I think in the US they have introducded something that prevents people being kicked out of their house over this.

If house prices hadn' t been allowed to get so out of control and rise to such extremely high prices, allowing more people to own their homes outright it may not be such a problem. Currently it is a big mess.

In all my 53 years in two countries, I’ve met exactly four people who have paid off their mortgages before they reached retirement age.
It’s been that way for decades.

frankv

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#2443752 22-Mar-2020 14:14

mattwnz:
MileHighKiwi:
The case in Carterton still not ruling out CT. We are in Upper Hutt, about 45 minutes away. A lot of people travel back and forth over the Rimutaka hill, and on the train.

It's a little close for comfort.

If it is CT then isn't it likely they got it from someone in Wellington especially considering their job which likely involves dealing with people and possibly lots of handshakes

My guess (and it only a guess) is that the person worked in the Carterton information centre, because that was specifically mentioned in the mayor's statement. And that they caught it from a tourist.

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frankv

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#2443795 22-Mar-2020 14:18

kingdragonfly: In a February edition, ISIS said “many Muslims rushed to confirm that this epidemic is a punishment from God Almighty” for China’s oppression of the Muslim Uighur minority, but went on to warn that the “the world is interconnected” and transportation “would facilitate the transfer of diseases and epidemics.”...

Presumably the latter is now the preferred explanation, given that Islamic Iran is one of the major centers of infection.

frankv

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#2443805 22-Mar-2020 14:32

gchiu:
mattwnz: You mean flattening the curve si health services are not overwhelmed? Isn't that also NZs approach rather than going all out to stamp it out?

Again I'm not a numbers guy so this might be off by a factor or two

4.8M x 60% (herd immunity) = 2.88M infected

20% of 2.88M = 576,000 in ICU or HDU

Mortality of 2.5% that's 120,000 dead

and 57600 - 120,000 = 456,000 needing rehab.

Now, that's with a R0 of 2.5. We can drop that by isolating.

So flattening the curve is a disaster. We need to eradicate this disease.

I think you're out in a couple of respects. Mortality rate is about 1% if there are sufficient ICU beds, so best case means 2.88M/100 = 28,800 deaths. Still a disaster.
But when we run out ICU beds, the death rate goes up to 5% so worst case (all infections happen at once) = 2.88M/20 = 188,000 deaths

The more we can flatten the curve, the less infections we have at one time, the closer we get to 28,800. Of course, the more people that go to ICU and recover, the more rehab needed.

JaseNZ

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#2443808 22-Mar-2020 14:33

While I can understand the need to minimise things just seem all out of whack for a lot of things. Go to a cafe and have to fill in a register, Walk through and buy something from the food court in the mall with 10 times more people and zip, why for one and not the other.

Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding : Ice cream man , Ice cream man

mattwnz

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#2443809 22-Mar-2020 14:34

Geektastic:In all my 53 years in two countries, I’ve met exactly four people who have paid off their mortgages before they reached retirement age.
It’s been that way for decades.

I know a lot of people well before retirement have that have paid it off. But many brought the homes before the massive price rises in recent years, so are buying and selling in same markett. But also many people will use their house like a bank, and there is no incentive to pay it off early as they often take out a long term mortgage, especially with interest rates so low

gchiu

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#2443810 22-Mar-2020 14:35

The data suggests you need to be in close proximity eg buying stuff. Walking around a food court you're not going to catch it .. it's not like aerosol driven measles.

mattwnz

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#2443811 22-Mar-2020 14:36

gchiu:

So, the nurse returned before mandatory self isolation, and went to work in the most susceptible of all populations, a nursing home!?

The only saving feature is they apparently wore a mask all the time. But if they passed it on, then instant 14% or more case fatality rate.

I'm thinking our Govt is brain dead. Italy is warning everyone who listens to take this seriously because they didn't implement the same degree of lockdown in Lombardy, and they're going to lose a whole generation there. Funerals are virtual, and hopefully last rites are virtual as well.

Anyone returned back to NZ prior to the mandatory self isolation was introduced, was later then asked to self isolate for the balance of the 14 days. The Prime Minister specifically requested people to see out the balance of the 14 days in self isolation when making the announcement. Anyone who got in before the deadline should have done the 14 day self isolation anyway IMO, without needing to be asked to.

dogstar001

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#2443812 22-Mar-2020 14:37

gchiu:
mattwnz: You mean flattening the curve si health services are not overwhelmed? Isn't that also NZs approach rather than going all out to stamp it out?

Again I'm not a numbers guy so this might be off by a factor or two

4.8M x 60% (herd immunity) = 2.88M infected

20% of 2.88M = 576,000 in ICU or HDU

Mortality of 2.5% that's 120,000 dead

and 57600 - 120,000 = 456,000 needing rehab.

Now, that's with a R0 of 2.5. We can drop that by isolating.

So flattening the curve is a disaster. We need to eradicate this disease.

I thought ICU was only required for about 5% of cases? I think it really depends on how extensive you test. Germany & south korea for example have an extensive testing programmes which pick up a lot of the mild & asymptomatic cases that other countries miss. This effectivly increases the number of cases but lowers the ICU percentage number. Obviously the absolute number of those needing ICU treatment stays the same. We will out of ICU beds quickly anyway.

Mortality is closer 1%. At least it is if the healthcare system isn't overwealmed. Your 2.5 is probably dead on if our system is overloaded. I don't think we are well placed healthcare wise to be honest. we have 240 ICU/HDU beds with a population of 4.8 million. Germany for example has 28000 ICU beds with a population of 83 million. That means despite having only 17.3 times the population they have 115 times the number of ICU beds. Yikes

frankv

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#2443814 22-Mar-2020 14:40

Geektastic:
In all my 53 years in two countries, I’ve met exactly four people who have paid off their mortgages before they reached retirement age.
It’s been that way for decades.

Count my parents as number 5, and me as number 6.
In my experience, it used to be normal for NZ home owners to freehold their homes before retirement. I think that student loans would be a big problem, plus higher house prices, to doing that.

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