2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2443815 22-Mar-2020 14:41

No, I don't think that's correct. 20% of cases need hospitalisation which means oxygen therapy, isolation etc etc. Many of those will end up in HDU but the most severe will end up in ICU. Each person is going to occupy a bed for a month or more. 50% of the cases in France in ICU are in their 40s.

So, this is truly SHTF territory.

Edit: Sorry, I believe overseas they are treating all the similar severity cases in shared rooms, probably the old Nightingale style wards.

They've adopted an Ebola methodology to treat people to reduce the numbers of staff getting infected. presumably on account of high viral loads, medical staff get the most severe disease.

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#2443817 22-Mar-2020 14:43

Hibino:

Just another rumor on internet:

Try to get some masks before everyone is in panic, or make you own using kitchen tower, like a Japanese video showed how. Use masks when you go to supermarket where full of people, and remember which part of your body/cloth touched things that touched by a lot of people(door handle, eftpos machine etc), wash them, the virus can survive longer enough on your body/cloth till you get home.

i think there is some stupidity at all levels. sample was probably sent to the lab's door. based on the history any person who uses their brain would test the sample. but oh no, the policy says ... yup the policy says we are all doomed

Oblivian

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#2443819 22-Mar-2020 14:45

mattwnz:

TH eonly way to do that is get people isolated from one another so they can't spread it. Some people are not doing what they should be doing and self isolating, or doing it properly, and you only need a few of these to cause CT.

So YOU avoid others as if they aren't self isolating.

It's not that hard to comprehend what has been drummed into us for a month. Forget others not doing their part. It's up to ones self to ensure if they aren't it's also avoided.

gchiu

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#2443820 22-Mar-2020 14:46

No, we are not all doomed, just a hell of a lot of us. There might be a few more empty houses at the end of this. I've ordered my cemetery plot but cremation will be mandatory I suspect. I wonder if I can get my money back?

dogstar001

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#2443826 22-Mar-2020 14:48

gchiu:
No, we are not all doomed, just a hell of a lot of us. There might be a few more empty houses at the end of this. I've ordered my cemetery plot but cremation will be mandatory I suspect. I wonder if I can get my money back?

Might be one for the disputes tribunal

mattwnz

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#2443827 22-Mar-2020 14:51

Oblivian:

mattwnz:

TH eonly way to do that is get people isolated from one another so they can't spread it. Some people are not doing what they should be doing and self isolating, or doing it properly, and you only need a few of these to cause CT.

So YOU avoid others as if they aren't self isolating.

It's not that hard to comprehend what has been drummed into us for a month. Forget others not doing their part. It's up to ones self to ensure if they aren't it's also avoided.

If you depend on others, this can be impossible to do. eg If you are in a rest home, you have no choice but to be in contact with staff etc. If you need shopping, you can't avoid staff totally unless you go to a store that has self service tills. But then they often have problems with their built in scale system and need staff help. If you go to school or uni, or have kids in school., they will be in lose contact etc, and a parent woud have no control over that. So we do rely on ALL incoming travelers to do their part, as they are how this virus came into NZ, not people already in NZ. Otherwise they should have been quarantined, or drip fed back into NZ, and also all tested as they came in. We should have prevented this at the border IMO when it was clear that cases were able to get in.

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#2443828 22-Mar-2020 14:51

@Geektastic Quote “In all my 53 years in two countries, I’ve met exactly four people who have paid off their mortgages before they reached retirement age. It’s been that way for decades.”

You must have a strangely skewed demographic in your contacts. IME there is a large proportion of people in NZ who retire without a mortgage - I would go as far as saying ‘most’.

EDIT: Looks like I spoke too soon - it appears many do still have a mortgage when they retire. I am surprised to see this - and retract the ‘most’.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/03/elderly-kiwis-struggling-to-pay-off-mortgage-before-retirement.html

Anyway, this is wandering OT.

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

mattwnz

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#2443830 22-Mar-2020 15:04

eracode:

@Geektastic Quote “In all my 53 years in two countries, I’ve met exactly four people who have paid off their mortgages before they reached retirement age. It’s been that way for decades.”

You must have a strangely skewed demographic in your contacts. IME there is a large proportion of people in NZ who retire without a mortgage - I would go as far as saying ‘most’.

EDIT: Looks like I spoke too soon - it appears many do still have mortgage when they retire. I am surprised to see this:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/03/elderly-kiwis-struggling-to-pay-off-mortgage-before-retirement.html

Not sure it says the percentages of people who do pay it off earlier. But many do use the equity in their homes for other things such as buying other homes for investment, as well as lifestyle stuff.

dogstar001

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#2443831 22-Mar-2020 15:04

One thing I've been struggling with is if NZ's health care system is at capacity at 1200 cases & each case lasts 2 weeks. For arguements sake, let's say the average person spends a week in ICU before that recover or die. herd immunity is at 2.88 million NZ's. It will take 2,880,000/1200 =2400 weeks or 52 years for it to work this through our population at a level that doesnt overload our healthcare system. This is absurd!

I am beginning to wonder if the lower the curve thing is a waste of time? I think we may have to go full China on it & stamp it out or just accept the 100,000 deaths. Two very horrible options.

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#2443833 22-Mar-2020 15:07

mattwnz:

If you depend on others, this can be impossible to do. eg If you are in a rest home, you have no choice but to be in contact with staff etc. If you need shopping, you can't avoid staff totally unless you go to a store that has self service tills. But then they often fail and need staff help.

Errrr. The message all along has been exactly that. Carers have been advised how to protect those who can't. You can still take precautions and have separation and use the guidelines to ensure safe interactions when required. Or request it of others if in a need-help position.

2m, No lingering. appropriate PE when required. Job done.

This thing is on water droplets, mostly from the mouth. Into the mouth and eyes. Hear/see a cough. GTFA

It's not proven to be the midas touch where if someone walks by the next 20ppl are certain to get it. Being near someone doesn't ensure it. Touching a random surface doesn't ensure it.

The current medical system still existing is tribute to what taking precautions on yourself and avoiding infections to date can do.

Common sense. It's a thing. Time everyone is putting in to point out how garbage our government is handling it and other things us armchair experts think should be/could be done better is better put to use by getting out and looking after yourself and immediate family or planning how to deal with the varied changes on the horizon.

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#2443834 22-Mar-2020 15:11

dogstar001: One thing I've been struggling with is if NZ's health care system is at capacity at 1200 cases & each case lasts 2 weeks. For arguements sake, let's say the average person spends a week in ICU before that recover or die. herd immunity is at 2.88 million NZ's. It will take 2,880,000/1200 =2400 weeks or 52 years for it to work this through our population at a level that doesnt overload our healthcare system. This is absurd!

I am beginning to wonder if the lower the curve thing is a waste of time? I think we may have to go full China on it & stamp it out or just accept the 100,000 deaths. Two very horrible options.

80% of people don't require hospital admission.

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#2443835 22-Mar-2020 15:20

@tdgeek: ...

As far as Im aware we were testing for CT all along. If you present to a GP or Healthline, and have one of symptoms A and B and one on C and D you get tested

"All along"! You have a source? Everything I read said that until a few days ago the MOH "criteria was that anyone who had travelled from a country of concern or had close contact with a covid-19 victim, and had compatible symptoms, should be tested" https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119946985/coronavirus-pm-jacinda-ardern-gives-update-on-nzs-response-to-the-virus. My highlighting.

Yes, that was 2 Mar but it has also been stated a number of times since. More to do than track down refs, but for example https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120277695/coronavirus-auckland-mums-request-to-be-tested-for-virus-rejected on 14 Mar "The doctor was told [by Healthline] Biggs did not meet the criteria for testing, as she had not travelled to other countries or had confirmed contact with someone with coronavirus for 15 minutes or longer." And there are a number of other articles of people with symptoms of Covid-19 being refused testing by Healthline and doctors because they did not meet the travel &/or contact with covid-19 'victims'.

The testing criteria applied until a few days ago inherently meant there was little chance of detecting CT. How can you possibly conclude that "we were testing for CT all along".

If (younger?) infected people with minimal or no symptoms entered the country over the last 2+ weeks and never tested or brought to the attention of MOH, there is a high risk others have been unknowingly affected. These will only show up in the next week or two plus.

Now we have the extraordinary situation of a nurse arriving back from Zimbabwe on March 10 working night shift in a rest-home(!!!) on 15 & 16 March. Oh yes, she arrived before the 11:59 pm cut-off on the 15th. I'm sure the virus will respect that she (& the nursing home) worked to the letter of the restrictions announced 36 hours earlier. A one off case? I very much doubt it, or even that people coming into the country with undetected symptoms has been very rare.

Our strength is that hardy anyone live sin NZ and we arent forced to live like sardines.

You seem to place great faith in this. Yet countries such as Japan, Singapore, South Korea that have been reasonably successful at restricting the growth in cases are in general much more densely populated than NZ. In contrast there are a number of countries such as Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Chile, and even Australia with significantly lower population densities than NZ but (at this point)are worse affected than us. The sardine packing density does not seem to be a controlling variable.

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#2443852 22-Mar-2020 15:25

dogstar001: One thing I've been struggling with is if NZ's health care system is at capacity at 1200 cases & each case lasts 2 weeks. For arguements sake, let's say the average person spends a week in ICU before that recover or die. herd immunity is at 2.88 million NZ's. It will take 2,880,000/1200 =2400 weeks or 52 years for it to work this through our population at a level that doesnt overload our healthcare system. This is absurd!

I am beginning to wonder if the lower the curve thing is a waste of time? I think we may have to go full China on it & stamp it out or just accept the 100,000 deaths. Two very horrible options.

Agreed

gchiu

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#2443853 22-Mar-2020 15:27

We seriously need to get a coalition war time govt in place. The labour led coalition are making too many mistakes that we are all going to pay heavily for.