2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2444039 22-Mar-2020 19:17

These coronaviruses are hard to immunize against as they are poorly immunogenic. They started one against SARS and then gave up.

The seasonal coronaviruses that come round every year only induce immunity that lasts less than a year.

Don't expect any vaccine soon that offers long term immunity.

tdgeek

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#2444040 22-Mar-2020 19:17

gchiu:

The PM needs to get independent advice.

The UK PM was about to lead the UK down a path of disaster by their own experts.

Should we defer MoH as not capable and get another set of experts?

Boris's idea came from his experts who clearly weren't following WHO, Im not aware WHO supports do nothing.Thats an exceedingly poor comparison.

mattwnz

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#2444041 22-Mar-2020 19:18

Fred99:

Yes.

But I suspect that a long-acting vaccine isn't ever coming, and whatever they might be able to produce is still a year away. Vaccinating billions of people with a rushed / not properly tested vaccine is a very dumb idea.

Some illnesses do eventually die out or become eradicated, but it requires countries to 'stamp it out', and not just try to flatten the curve. Often vaccines are used to get rid of them. Didn't the 1918 one just run of of steam eventually? Is this virus less contagious or more difficult to get rid of, than things that have been eradicated before?.

I does seem there is now huge pressure, including from doctors, to do some major changes, and move to level 3 or 4 as soon as possible, which is what many here have also been suggesting . Lock it down and starve the virus . https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120477240/coronavirus-doctor-group--raise-threat-level-now-or-risk-becoming-like-italy

gchiu

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#2444042 22-Mar-2020 19:20

tdgeek:

gchiu:

The PM needs to get independent advice.

The UK PM was about to lead the UK down a path of disaster by their own experts.

Should we defer MoH as not capable and get another set of experts?

Boris's idea came from his experts who clearly weren't following WHO, Im not aware WHO supports do nothing.Thats an exceedingly poor comparison.

The NZ medical specialists letter supports Prof Michael Baker of Public Health at the U of Otago.

Does everyone think the best talent only works for the MOH?

Fred99

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#2444043 22-Mar-2020 19:21

gchiu:

These coronaviruses are hard to immunize against. They started one against SARS and then gave up.

The seasonal coronaviruses that come round every year only induce immunity that lasts less than a year.

Don't expect any vaccine soon that offers long term immunity.

With SARS, about 12% of known infected health workers (IIRC N= 1000) in China tested negative for antibodies about a year after they'd been infected. Of the 88% who tested positive, how immune they were was unknown - for obvious reasons. So nope - the hope for long acting vaccine does not look good.

tdgeek

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#2444044 22-Mar-2020 19:22

mattwnz:

Some viruses do die out, but it requires countries to 'stamp it out', and not just try to flatten the curve. Didn't the 1918 one just run of of steam eventually? Is this virus is less contagious than things that have been eradicated before?.

I does seem there is now huge pressure, including from doctors, to do some major changes, and move to level 3 or 4 as soon as possible, which is what many here have also been suggesting . Lock it down and starve the virus . https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120477240/coronavirus-doctor-group--raise-threat-level-now-or-risk-becoming-like-italy

The other issue is that if NZ contained it, it burnt out (as all infections cured and no spread) you then are in the quandary of what do we do at airports? Open them to international arrivals? Which will ALL be from infected countries. A question for another day.

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#2444045 22-Mar-2020 19:25

networkn:
Has the Government released what it considers "essential" businesses are?

Internationally it's businesses necessary to keep people alive - food and medical largely.

mattwnz

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#2444046 22-Mar-2020 19:25

tdgeek:

The other issue is that if NZ contained it, it burnt out (as all infections cured and no spread) you then are in the quandary of what do we do at airports? Open them to international arrivals? Which will ALL be from infected countries. A question for another day.

Yes a question for another day, although people are thinking about it, because world travel may have changed forever. Quarantine periods may become the norm for people wanting to go on holiday from some locations.

gchiu

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#2444047 22-Mar-2020 19:26

That stuff article just mentions the letter from the Wellington physician which was on change.org

The second letter is from Indran Ramanathan, Cardiothoracic Specialist and is just medical specialists signing a letter using google forms.

hio77

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#2444049 22-Mar-2020 19:27

I'm shocked at how passive some folk are.

My grandparents are having a family friend fly up. A major risk in itself. But they are also going out every day for coffees etc like it's a normal day.

They both are in that high risk bracket. Not just because of age. I've personally been avoiding visiting them due to taking public transport and thus being quite plausible to get it through community transmission.
I'm shocked. I've got no idea what to even say to make it sink in :/

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#2444050 22-Mar-2020 19:28

mattwnz:

Some illnesses do eventually die out or become eradicated, but it requires countries to 'stamp it out', and not just try to flatten the curve. Often vaccines are used to get rid of them. Didn't the 1918 one just run of of steam eventually? Is this virus less contagious or more difficult to get rid of, than things that have been eradicated before?.

It's still unclear as to why H1N1 retreated that time around.

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#2444052 22-Mar-2020 19:30

gchiu:
The other thing I'd point out is that patients who have AS ( radiographic axial spondyloarthropathy) often have significant loss of respiratory reserve due to restrictive lung disease. So, that is a significant factor. So, you might as well stay on your biologics and just practice absolute isolation until we see if community transmission can be halted.

If Covid-19 becomes endemic then isolation could be permanent.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

tdgeek

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#2444053 22-Mar-2020 19:35

Handle9:
networkn:

Has the Government released what it considers "essential" businesses are?

Internationally it's businesses necessary to keep people alive - food and medical largely.

Australia's includes "Supermarkets, petrol stations, pharmacies, convenience stores, freight and logistics, and home delivery will be among the many services that will remain open.

May not be exactly that here, but any business, while it must be physically closed to the public, can operate online. Supports for that can be online, i.e. IT support

gchiu

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#2444054 22-Mar-2020 19:35

well, if it becomes endemic it may become seasonal so you only isolate seasonally.

but maybe we'lll get a vaccine in a year or two, and then vaccinate twice yearly. Who knows? I presume that you'll need to have antibody levels measured. But then what to do about mutations in the virus. Maybe it's time to grab a lifestyle block from an estate sale.

gzt

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#2444056 22-Mar-2020 19:38

This geekzone topic is very difficult to follow at this time. There is good info and discussion here.

I'd like to suggest creation of an entirely new forum for Covid-19 and evolution into topics.

Alternatively moderators could create four or five topics on different covid areas but imo these will be difficult to stay on topic. Evolution in a new forum could be the most parsimonious option.

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