2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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90 posts

Master Geek

#2454753 5-Apr-2020 08:50

Geektastic:

All of this economic and social damage, with the exception of international tourism, could have just not happened if we’d been quicker off the mark.

It’s infuriating that the PM is getting acclaim for dealing well with something she could have avoided entirely.

I absolutely agree. International tourism was going to be irreparably damaged regardless, but our government and PM's limp-wristed response damned many more Kiwis.

iamaelephant

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Master Geek

#2454754 5-Apr-2020 08:52

tdgeek:Yes if you have plans, we trust you, what's wrong wth that?

Really?

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2454755 5-Apr-2020 08:53

Geektastic:

All of this economic and social damage, with the exception of international tourism, could have just not happened if we’d been quicker off the mark.

It’s infuriating that the PM is getting acclaim for dealing well with something she could have avoided entirely.

As it was NZ acted before WHO declared a global pandemic, implemented travel restrictions early - against advice from WHO, and IIRC at the time was under no pressure from the opposition at all to "shut things down". We had vice chancellors of two universities bleating publicly about the economic cost to them of restricting access of foreign students, and a tourism industry representing 10% of our GDP vehemently opposed to shutdowns, media "personalities" like Hosking damaging public perception of what was needed.

Keep your politics out of this - please. There's another forum for that.

frankv

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#2454756 5-Apr-2020 08:54

tdgeek:
Tinkerisk:

I really don't like to demotivate you. But for total NZ you are still exactly 11 days in behind of Hamburg who had the same count (989) the days before. I know there SHOULD be a difference but unfortunately IT IS NOT. That's why I try to emphasize that fact since a while (why else should you have a look to a single bloody German city in a completely different context than yours?). We're at 2739 infections at the moment, you're at 950 and there are 11 days to go.

I do feel there is a difference. We have been importing cases at international arrivals, and every day, the majority are from that source.It was thousands, now its barely 300 a day. Testing has doubled but its still linear. The main issue is that CT is very very low. 99% of our cases flew here in recent weeks. CT hasn't begun to cause any real growth. If we had no lockdown, it would have. Wit the drying up of our 99% source in cases, and the lockdown snuffling spread, I feel we are well on the right track. Our hospital use has been very minimal. We have been adding cases at 60 to 80 per day. As testing has doubled, the new case trend hasn't changed. In effect that means half of our extra tests gave zero cases. I feel there is little spread right now.

I expect that Germany and Hamburg have also had lots of people returning from overseas.

In NZ, it's not 99% from overseas... it's IIRC 82% overseas sourced, 1% CT and 17% unknown. Really we should call the 17% "probably CT", since it apparently isn't overseas sourced, and what else could it be?

Without knowing what proportion of our tests previously were positive, we don't know what proportion are now positive. Given doubling of test numbers, all we can say is that the proportion of positives has halved. (I think that was what you meant to say). Given new cases are about 60 from 3,600 tests, we are getting about 1 in 60 positives. With a change in strategy away from testing only high-risk patients, you would expect that proportion to have dropped anyway.

Batman

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#2454757 5-Apr-2020 08:55

Dingbatt:

gchiu: I'd say we were 7 weeks too late. If we had implemented quarantine on our borders at that time we would all still be working.

No not “all of us”. Anyone involved in tourism or international education would still be out of work, but it would have started 7 weeks earlier. Now how much of GDP is that?

I do believe allowing NZers returning now to self isolate instead of quarantining them is akin to mopping up a bath with a sponge at one end while the tap is still running at the other.

disagree. local tourism is a big thing. and with big discounts, making it affordable to those who were priced out by inflated prices, easter = big fun for whole country.

Fred99

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#2454761 5-Apr-2020 09:01

frankv:

In NZ, it's not 99% from overseas... it's IIRC 82% overseas sourced, 1% CT and 17% unknown. Really we should call the 17% "probably CT", since it apparently isn't overseas sourced, and what else could it be?

It could be traceable - but not yet traced - contact with a local cluster or with a person from overseas. Of course it's "probably CT" - but still needs to be traced if possible.

freitasm

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#2454764 5-Apr-2020 09:05

If you want to discuss the politics of this response use the thread here

Covid19 Different political parties views

If you post political statements in this thread you will be locked out of the Health sub-forum entirely.

@Geektastic @iamaelephant @Batman @cshwone and others.

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Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

gchiu

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#2454766 5-Apr-2020 09:15

Dingbatt:

No not “all of us”. Anyone involved in tourism or international education would still be out of work, but it would have started 7 weeks earlier. Now how much of GDP is that?

I do believe allowing NZers returning now to self isolate instead of quarantining them is akin to mopping up a bath with a sponge at one end while the tap is still running at the other.

I personally would have gone to Queenstown for a holiday but I kept looking and the hotel prices didn't drop over the period I was looking at. So, I don't think tourism would have suffered, locals would have taken up the slack once the pricing had become more reasonable as they would have due to market forces.

International education - the Govt could have managed this a lot better. They could have let students in and quarantined them in hotels at their expense. Instead some camped out in Thailand before coming to NZ.

Actually this may still be a possibility. Once we have got the situation under control we could reopen to all visitors as long as they agree to quarantine, or, have documentation of immunity.

debo

307 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2454768 5-Apr-2020 09:18

tdgeek:

No. The rules have strengthened. Yes if you have plans, we trust you, what's wrong wth that? We are trusting the other 4.7 million. If you are happy both the lockdown you must be ok with passengers being part of that. You might say that they are a higher risk. Correct. Do we quarantine all those infected with COVID-19? No. Stay home.

We could have told Kiwis overseas to come home sooner. Either way we still import the same risk. Earlier we didn't have empty hotels so nowhere to quarantine them.

Wrong. There is no use of GPS enabled apps in NZ. The police are not checking that they are where they claim to be. Nothing has been strengthened. It is these people that are bring the virus into the country and spreading it to everyone else. It's IIRC 82% overseas sourced, 1% CT and 17% unknown. Until the government wakes up and realises this then we can never leave lockdown.

Whats wrong with monitoring returning citizens? It is not like they are having their privacy invaded. They have already disclosed where they will be staying. Their privacy is only invaded if they break isolation. I have no issue with this. It will help with contact tracing.

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#2454771 5-Apr-2020 09:20

Many on Geekzone run their own businesses.

How have your property companies been in this crisis ?

Reaching out to offer rent holiday while your building is locked down and limited or no access ?

Or reaching out to push you off the cliff with reminder of rent demands ?

Considering the commercial property market is 'supposed' to be long term investments, 5y - 10y leases and such.

One would expect these to be interested in keeping their tenants alive in the long term.

In Newsroom I see that one company is already sending out rent reminder demands to completely shuttered businesses.

Remembered my companies dealings with property companies silliness I suspect this is typical.

That's going to sabotage recovery !

Pete,

Dial111

978 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2454778 5-Apr-2020 09:27

freitasm:
If you want to discuss the politics of this response use the thread here

Covid19 Different political parties views

If you post political statements in this thread you will be locked out of the Health sub-forum entirely.

@Geektastic @iamaelephant @Batman @cshwone and others.

Not sure why my comment was deleted as it was not political in any way, I merely said I was happy with the job the PM has done so far, is that not allowed?

tdgeek

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#2454806 5-Apr-2020 09:41

iamaelephant:

tdgeek:Yes if you have plans, we trust you, what's wrong wth that?

Really?

Do you require all people living in NZ to be force quarantined? Or are travellers unreliable?

freitasm

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#2454807 5-Apr-2020 09:42

@Dial111:

Not sure why my comment was deleted as it was not political in any way, I merely said I was happy with the job the PM has done so far, is that not allowed?

Just because it was quoting a previous comment that was removed. Nothing against your comment and that's why I didn't @ mention you...

tdgeek

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#2454810 5-Apr-2020 09:47

frankv:
I expect that Germany and Hamburg have also had lots of people returning from overseas.

In NZ, it's not 99% from overseas... it's IIRC 82% overseas sourced, 1% CT and 17% unknown. Really we should call the 17% "probably CT", since it apparently isn't overseas sourced, and what else could it be?

Without knowing what proportion of our tests previously were positive, we don't know what proportion are now positive. Given doubling of test numbers, all we can say is that the proportion of positives has halved. (I think that was what you meant to say). Given new cases are about 60 from 3,600 tests, we are getting about 1 in 60 positives. With a change in strategy away from testing only high-risk patients, you would expect that proportion to have dropped anyway.

Yes, the 17% is mostly CT. Well its all imported, but yes, CT is a degree of freedom apart. Yes, we tested higher likely positives before, now we have doubled, so we are testing the higher likely positives as before (and seemingly getting similar results). The other half which are not the traveller/highly likely positives, seemingly is a very very low result. To me, that bodes well.

gchiu

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#2454811 5-Apr-2020 09:47

ezbee:

Many on Geekzone run their own businesses.

How have your property companies been in this crisis ?

Reaching out to offer rent holiday while your building is locked down and limited or no access ?

What exactly can you do?

If the company goes under during this crisis, you won't get your rent.

If they survive and start trading again, then you could reach arbitration on what was a fair reduction of rent ( clause 27.5 Auckland Law Society Lease ) or take them to court.

The problem is, what is fair has not been defined.

Some landlords are asking tenants to extend the lease by the period they are not paying, but the landlord if paying a mortgage still has to pay interest even with a 6 month deferment. I believe it has been suggested the banks use all their profits to allow them not to charge interest.

We are all in this together ... and need to cooperate.

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