2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2455297 5-Apr-2020 19:17

frankv: Death rate increase could also be the hospitals and ICUs and ventilators getting overwhelmed. So death rate starting to move from 1% to 5%. That would have less lag than pre-swamping, since it would be on arrival at ICU, not weeks after.

I saw that in one graph of... somewhere in NYC [citation needed] where the infection rate and death rate more or less tracked each other and then at a certain point there was a sharp increase in deaths (relative to infections) which presumably was when the ICUs got overwhelmed.

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#2455302 5-Apr-2020 19:27

neb:
frankv: Death rate increase could also be the hospitals and ICUs and ventilators getting overwhelmed. So death rate starting to move from 1% to 5%. That would have less lag than pre-swamping, since it would be on arrival at ICU, not weeks after.
I saw that in one graph of... somewhere in NYC [citation needed] where the infection rate and death rate more or less tracked each other and then at a certain point there was a sharp increase in deaths (relative to infections) which presumably was when the ICUs got overwhelmed.

I saw at todays media conference, that they said that one reason why NZs death rate vs confirmed cases are so good compared to the death rates in the worst countries, is that NZ is doing significantly more testing. So we are apparently getting most of the cases being detected. Whereas in other countries a lot of the people apparently are not being tested. This was in response to a question from a reporter, as to why our death rate in NZ is so low. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/413495/ardern-critical-of-those-breaking-lockdown-rules
But I suspect when the hospitals become overwhelmed, there is also the situation, where people who could have been saved , can;'t be due to a lack of equipment and staff, which then increases the death rate.

ezbee

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#2455347 5-Apr-2020 19:33

On the no Spitting Signs in New Zealand

This was common on signs in NZR Rail passenger carriages .

Expectorate

The word Spitting may have been thought of as a bit common and crude ?

Your average bloke was expected to have a wider vocabulary then.

Not sure if Glenbrook Vintage Railway have preserved these on their restored rolling stock .

jfanning

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#2455349 5-Apr-2020 19:51

Mahon:

Walking track being a path very close to your home within the rules. Today I have seem mum dad and the kids on their bikes on footpaths with walkers having to go into the road to social distance.

So footpaths? Those are illegal to bike on

But walkers have the same issue, they cannot pass each other on a footpath, or a walking path, they are not wide enough to give the other person a 2m space

TLD

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#2455352 5-Apr-2020 20:03

frankv: Death rate increase could also be the hospitals and ICUs and ventilators getting overwhelmed. So death rate starting to move from 1% to 5%. That would have less lag than pre-swamping, since it would be on arrival at ICU, not weeks after.

Since the advent of coronavirus I have learned that the difference between HDU (High Dependency Unit) and ICU (Intensive Care Unit) is that the latter patience are intubated and on a ventilator. At least they are unconscious. I'm thinking that people one step down from needing a ventilator would feel like the are slowly suffocating. I find it bad enough breathing through a dust mask!

What I have also learned is that of the covid-19 cases that become critical and placed in an ICU bed, less than a third are likely to survive. I asked how New Zealand has managed to keep our death rate to just one, and this is apparently linked to the early cases being linked to overseas travel. This made it possible to track down and isolate the people exposed to the source. We are now seeing cases where we are not able to identify the source, and so unable to track down other people exposed to that source. That means the timing has changed and we will see an upturn in the death rate. I guess we'll get a clue to how valid this information is by whether the two current critical cases survive. I'm told that is unlikely.

It was good to see that the guy who deliberately coughed and sneezed on people in a supermarket has been arrested and charged. I am hoping he gets a nasty shock in court tomorrow.

Trevor Dennis
Rapaura (near Blenheim)

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#2455354 5-Apr-2020 20:28

TLD:

frankv: Death rate increase could also be the hospitals and ICUs and ventilators getting overwhelmed. So death rate starting to move from 1% to 5%. That would have less lag than pre-swamping, since it would be on arrival at ICU, not weeks after.

Since the advent of coronavirus I have learned that the difference between HDU (High Dependency Unit) and ICU (Intensive Care Unit) is that the latter patience are intubated and on a ventilator. At least they are unconscious. I'm thinking that people one step down from needing a ventilator would feel like the are slowly suffocating. I find it bad enough breathing through a dust mask!

What I have also learned is that of the covid-19 cases that become critical and placed in an ICU bed, less than a third are likely to survive. I asked how New Zealand has managed to keep our death rate to just one, and this is apparently linked to the early cases being linked to overseas travel. This made it possible to track down and isolate the people exposed to the source. We are now seeing cases where we are not able to identify the source, and so unable to track down other people exposed to that source. That means the timing has changed and we will see an upturn in the death rate. I guess we'll get a clue to how valid this information is by whether the two current critical cases survive. I'm told that is unlikely.

It now took 14 days to be able to read this from your side without having to say it more clearly, so as not to be stoned as a foreign "know-it-all." Either you develop a special resilience against the virus or you need to face that 520 ventilators for 5% severe cases will last for about 10,000 actual infected kiwis (let's say 12,500 not to be too stingy) and is the bottleneck.

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

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#2455361 5-Apr-2020 20:43

Indian Police Dance, Wear 'Coronavirus Helmets' to Boost Awareness

VOA News

Traffic police wearing coronavirus-themed helmets spread awareness about COVID-19 in a campaign to educate the public.

Kiwifan

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#2455365 5-Apr-2020 20:48

Canadians are getting grumpy.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/coronavirus-us-canada-tweets_ca_5e890603c5b6e7d76c65172c

I had this in the Trump thread originally but figure it’s about Covid too.

Warning, there may be a few naughty words in the comments section.

kingdragonfly

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#2455368 5-Apr-2020 20:53

'I'm as happy as a pig in mud': Aussie spends his stimulus payment on a carload of beer

Daily Mail Australia

An Australian man has proudly spent his $750 stimulus payment on eight cases of Victoria Bitter.

He was one of six million Australians who received the one-off payment from the government to ward off a looming recession brought on by the coronavirus crisis.
As soon as the money was in his account he headed to the bottle shop to stock-up on beer.

'I've just spent my stimulus money, I've got eight slabs in there and that should last me about eight days,' he said in a video shared online.

'I'm as happy as a pig in mud.'
...

kingdragonfly

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#2455385 5-Apr-2020 21:05

The Independent: Coronavirus: Nations classify what is ‘essential’ during lockdown with some US states choosing guns and cannabis

Countries including India and US states are listing the information technology sector as essential

The coronavirus pandemic is defining for the world what is “essential” and what things we think we really cannot do without, even though we might not need them for survival.

Authorities in many places are determining what shops and services can remain open, in a bid to slow the spread of the virus.

They are also restricting citizens from leaving their homes. Stay-at-home orders or guidance are affecting more than one-fifth of the world’s population.

This has left many contemplating an existential question: What, really, is essential?

Whether it is in Asia, Europe, Africa or the United States, there is general agreement – health care workers, law enforcement, utility workers, food production and communications are generally exempt from lockdowns.

But some lists of exempted activities reflect a national identity or the efforts of lobbyists.

In some US states, golf, guns and marijuana have been ruled essential, raising eyebrows and, in the case of guns, a good deal of ire.
...

neb

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#2455389 5-Apr-2020 21:12

kingdragonfly: In some US states, golf, guns and marijuana have been ruled essential, raising eyebrows and, in the case of guns, a good deal of ire.
...

Of course guns are essential, do you think the NRA will still support Trump if guns are restricted? Or that his billionaire golfing buddies will be happy if golf courses are shut down? They're essential to his re-election campaign, so they stay.

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Azzura

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#2455391 5-Apr-2020 21:23

Kiwifan:

Canadians are getting grumpy.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/coronavirus-us-canada-tweets_ca_5e890603c5b6e7d76c65172c

I had this in the Trump thread originally but figure it’s about Covid too.

Warning, there may be a few naughty words in the comments section.

Trump is the only guy who can pat himself on the back while simultaneously slashing his own throat.

The pulp for those N95 masks that 3M produces ---

The only maker of K10S pulp used for surgical masks and gowns is in Nanimo, BC, Canada and has doubled production.

K10S is the pulp that we’re producing for these medical supplies. We’re the only one that produces it,”
Levi Sampson, Canadian mill Harmac Pacific president

Geektastic

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#2455393 5-Apr-2020 21:34

tdgeek:

GV27:

This is different. My understanding is barely any BIC covers pandemics as they tend to be specifically excluded. I think a lot of lawyers billed a lot of hours to commercial clients on the Monday/Tuesday/Weds period before lockdown while people figured out what they could get away with not paying.

Like I say, I don't really understand how it would work. We're filing a lot of payday data to IRD every time we pay people, perhaps future payroll assistance could go directly to employees?

Like I said, you'd be freezing the credit cycle temporarily. There's no legal framework for it because we've never really done anything like it - putting the whole commercial world (apart from essentials) to sleep and paying people directly and then waking everything up and picking up where you left off a month later is something I've never seen ever discussed before. But maybe we should be having that discussion?

Its a very good question. Two ways to look at it. An individual generally earns a low income. A business, say you own a 10 employee business, you will earn good coin, or should. Its a higher risk than wages, and higher returns. I feel there would be massive pushback if we accept that businesss and entrepreneurs earn impressive incomes, but they can also line up at the dole queue, which is essentially what you are saying. Whether thats a 10 employee business or a 200 employee business.

The other side is that its tough to weather storm after storm. Its difficult to hibernate a business. You freeze the business, but hey, my business that supports you is still operating I want you to pay me, that type of thing.

I keep coming back to a business dole scenario. Which is super weird.

All I can come up wth is an EQC type arrangement, to cater for these disasters. Current debtors must pay, you must pay current creditors. The EQC type of arrangement would cover fixed costs that cannot be avoided. Payroll, I guess the taxpayer. That allows you to hibernate.

The alternative is that the business owner just says to his employees "Sorry folks - can't keep this going." and winds up the business. Result - 11 unemployed people and a bunch of unpaid suppliers, tax bills etc etc.

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#2455394 5-Apr-2020 21:35

gchiu: We had anti spitting signs in Lambton Quay as well at least in the 1960s.

They were still up in Paris last time I was there a couple of years ago.

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#2455395 5-Apr-2020 21:38

neb:
kingdragonfly: In some US states, golf, guns and marijuana have been ruled essential, raising eyebrows and, in the case of guns, a good deal of ire.
...
Of course guns are essential, do you think the NRA will still support Trump if guns are restricted? Or that his billionaire golfing buddies will be happy if golf courses are shut down? They're essential to his re-election campaign, so they stay.

My brother in Toronto said that weed shops there are 'essential businesses' in lockdown.

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