2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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~HONYAKKER!~
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#2455928 6-Apr-2020 15:31

frednz:

There are some instances where outbreaks have happened - there was one at a choir where everybody maintained their distance, but they were all singing. Singing is an act where you could imagine droplets would be spread further than two metres.

It's worth reading this article as it discusses growing reports that the virus could be airborne, "which means it could hang around in the air after being expelled by an infected person".

This seems to be of increasing importance recently. This clip from Japanese broadcaster NHK is quite eye-opening about how microdroplets can still be floating around a room even after an hour. On my local walks, I am automatically finding myself holding my breath as I pass people and smile, just in case.

k14

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#2455929 6-Apr-2020 15:31

jfanning:

Why? Why can't I ride my mountain bike? The "rules" are clear enough now, no need to annoy people by adding more stuff

Totally agree. Whilst I agree the person in wgtn that had to be airlifted was not being sensible, I have been riding solo on my mountain bike 6 or 7 times during the lockdown. I have done this in full knowledge of all the guidance provided by the government and totally happy with my decision. I am riding far less extreme tracks than I would at usual times and do not believe I am taking any risky behaviour. The tracks I ride are within 3km of my house and on yesterdays ride I saw 1 other person (on the other rides I have seen a maximum of 5 other riders). I know these tracks like the back of my hand and even at normal times I can ride for 2 hours without seeing another person. I know how to reduce the risk and see no material change in risk riding these trails as opposed to riding around town on the road.

To me it sounds like all these armchair critics are making their own interpretations of the rules and forcing these on others (I wouldn't be surprised if the vast majority have never been near a mountain bike in their life). I will continue to ride my mountain bike on the local trails and abide by the guidance without breaking any rules (stay local, keep your distance). If the government changes the guidance then i will alter my behaviour accordingly. At this stage there is absolutely no need to ban specific activities like mountain biking.

neb

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#2455930 6-Apr-2020 15:32

For people not reading the data and analysis thread, a cross-reference to graphs from @frankv which make for interesting reading.

mattwnz

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#2455941 6-Apr-2020 15:35

frankv:
frednz:

It's worth reading this article as it discusses growing reports that the virus could be airborne, "which means it could hang around in the air after being expelled by an infected person".

And could travel a great deal further than 2 metres downwind, or downhill. Conceivably, strong winds could create turbulence to carry the vuris upwards as well.

There was someone on BBC who said it could remain in the air for up to 3 hours through expelled vapour. Eg on a cold day when you breathe out you can see the vapour that comes out. Not sure what the risk is it people walking through the airspace of where previous people have breathed? But I understand this is not the same as it being airborne.
I do wonder what the logic is of other countries spraying disinfectant throughout the streets wearing masks?

neb

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#2455960 6-Apr-2020 15:40

mattwnz: There was someone on BBC who said it could remain in the air for up to 3 hours through expelled vapour. Eg on a cold day when you breathe out you can see the vapour that comes out. Not sure what the risk is it people walking through the airspace of where previous people have breathed?

We just don't have enough data at the moment. Another thing to consider is that if you breathe in a small number of particles your immune system should take care of it, you need to take in more than some minimum amount for it to affect you, however we have no data on what this is and measuring it in practice isn't possible unless you want to revive Unit 731 or similar.

Handle9

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#2455969 6-Apr-2020 15:53

concordnz:

This could be a problem, if Felines, become CT vectors, transmitting it from one household to another.
Specially if it gets into the Stray Cat populations around NZ
We might have to start culling of stray cats, if we struggle to 'stamp it out'

If it gets to that then all cats will likely be culled.

Geektastic

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#2455981 6-Apr-2020 16:07

Handle9:

concordnz:

This could be a problem, if Felines, become CT vectors, transmitting it from one household to another.
Specially if it gets into the Stray Cat populations around NZ
We might have to start culling of stray cats, if we struggle to 'stamp it out'

If it gets to that then all cats will likely be culled.

Pretty sure you'll find cats are culled regularly in rural NZ...!

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kingdragonfly

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#2455984 6-Apr-2020 16:11

Is This Coronavirus, or Just Allergies? Symptoms of COVID-19

SciShow

Handle9

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#2456052 6-Apr-2020 16:40

On2or3wheels:

I'm really disappointed at the daily numbers we're still seeing. Per head of population we're not doing that well at all considering we're in lock-down.

Australia has 5 times our population for instance, their lock-down has come on very gradually & been all over the place, & yet their per head figures are comparable, although their deaths are higher.

I believe Oz is testing at a fairly high rate as well (one of the highest if you can believe their PM) so we can't just say we're finding more.

The daily briefing keeps informing us we're seeing high numbers from the clusters, but if you look at the figures on the MOH website this isn't the case.
For instance right now, there were only 18 new cases from the identified clusters in the last 24 hrs.

This means the vast majority of our new cases could be many smaller clusters currently under 10 people, or individuals.

Since we're in lock-down, if we keep seeing cluster increases this must surely mean they're in essential workers which could drag this thing out for quite a while.

I think I read that 40%+ of workers are essential?

I wish the reporters in the daily Q & A would ask some deeper questions.

Lockdown started about 10 days ago. There is no international evidence that this would lead to a fast drop in numbers, it takes a couple of weeks at least to see the effect.

The fact that new cases are fairly static at the moment suggests things are working fairly well but this stuff only shows up over weeks, not days. There is also a lot of noise in the data - if the wrong population is being tested then you are missing numbers.

So far it is not out of control in NZ but it could be, we just don't know, and probably won't know for another week or so. I'd expect to start seeing more people in ICU and more deaths in the next week as well.

The indications are ok but this isn't able to be switched on and off. It's complex.

vexxxboy

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#2456058 6-Apr-2020 16:47

k14:

jfanning:

Why? Why can't I ride my mountain bike? The "rules" are clear enough now, no need to annoy people by adding more stuff

Totally agree. Whilst I agree the person in wgtn that had to be airlifted was not being sensible, I have been riding solo on my mountain bike 6 or 7 times during the lockdown. I have done this in full knowledge of all the guidance provided by the government and totally happy with my decision. I am riding far less extreme tracks than I would at usual times and do not believe I am taking any risky behaviour. The tracks I ride are within 3km of my house and on yesterdays ride I saw 1 other person (on the other rides I have seen a maximum of 5 other riders). I know these tracks like the back of my hand and even at normal times I can ride for 2 hours without seeing another person. I know how to reduce the risk and see no material change in risk riding these trails as opposed to riding around town on the road.

To me it sounds like all these armchair critics are making their own interpretations of the rules and forcing these on others (I wouldn't be surprised if the vast majority have never been near a mountain bike in their life). I will continue to ride my mountain bike on the local trails and abide by the guidance without breaking any rules (stay local, keep your distance). If the government changes the guidance then i will alter my behaviour accordingly. At this stage there is absolutely no need to ban specific activities like mountain biking.

Seriously what dont you understand, people have nothing against mountain biker's . Hospitals and emergency people dont want to be working on or rescuing people because of some activity that for 4 weeks can be put on hold for the benefit of the whole country and people are to selfish to do it. It's not a debate to how good you are or "i never crash so im fine" . It is because we are trying to stop a virus and for 4 weeks the whole country is on hold while we do it. Get with the program and stop moaning because you cant ride your bike up and down hills for a little while

Common sense is not as common as you think.

frankv

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#2456062 6-Apr-2020 16:55

mattwnz: There was someone on BBC who said it could remain in the air for up to 3 hours through expelled vapour. Eg on a cold day when you breathe out you can see the vapour that comes out.

Just for correctness: You cannot see water vapour (except in the largest sense that water vapour is what makes the sky blue). What you see on a cold day is water droplets that have condensed due to the cold air. In exactly the same way, you can't see steam, which is just water vapour above 100C. What people call steam is again droplets that have condensed from the steam due to relatively cold air.

gchiu

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#2456064 6-Apr-2020 16:57

vexxxboy:

Seriously what dont you understand, people have nothing against mountain biker's . Hospitals and emergency people dont want to be working on or rescuing people because of some activity that for 4 weeks can be put on hold for the benefit of the whole country and people are to selfish to do it. It's not a debate to how good you are or "i never crash so im fine" . It is because we are trying to stop a virus and for 4 weeks the whole country is on hold while we do it. Get with the program and stop moaning because you cant ride your bike up and down hills for a little while

It's observer bias. All the mountain bikers who have crashed have both hands with plaster of Paris on them and so they can't post.

tripp

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#2456067 6-Apr-2020 17:01

So that guy that did the video of coughing on people in the supermarket.....

So reporters got to him after leaving court this afternoon and the footage is online. The part I find interesting when he was walking/talking to the report he said "I made the mistake of not making the video 'friends only' and posted it publicly which was foolish of me"

So what I read from this is that he would do it again and just make sure its only to "friends"

Link here

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12322841 around 24 seconds

He has also done this kind of thing before

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/120837754/man-in-court-after-coughing-on-christchurch-shoppers

tdgeek

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#2456075 6-Apr-2020 17:07

tripp:

So that guy that did the video of coughing on people in the supermarket.....

So reporters got to him after leaving court this afternoon and the footage is online. The part I find interesting when he was walking/talking to the report he said "I made the mistake of not making the video 'friends only' and posted it publicly which was foolish of me"

So what I read from this is that he would do it again and just make sure its only to "friends"

Link here

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12322841 around 24 seconds

He has also done this kind of thing before

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/120837754/man-in-court-after-coughing-on-christchurch-shoppers

MF posted the list of his previous run ins with the law. The charge relating to the Health was dropped, so he has been let off. Max fine is $1000, so let off IMO.

frankv

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#2456077 6-Apr-2020 17:08

neb:
Another thing to consider is that if you breathe in a small number of particles your immune system should take care of it, you need to take in more than some minimum amount for it to affect you, however we have no data on what this is and measuring it in practice isn't possible unless you want to revive Unit 731 or similar.

My understanding is that the immune system works in the bloodstream. So it's not until the virus has arrived in the lungs and I guess begun replicating and destroying cells that the immune system would even become aware of it. In which case a single virus in the lungs is all that's needed... it very quickly becomes hundreds, I guess. But presumably other defences like the mucus in the nose and throat would prevent most viruses from getting into the lungs in the first place.

But I'm quite ignorant about the immune system, so would welcome correction from someone knowledgeable.

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