2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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BDFL - Memuneh
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#2475137 2-May-2020 10:33

Zepanda66:

freitasm:

Removed a few replies about conspiracy theories. Fact people, facts.

Right... So now its a conspiracy theory that China denied the WHO entry to the country to investigate the origins of the virus?

When folks start linking to "YouTuber" as evidence, it's time to remove the whole part of the thread, yes.

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Zepanda66

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#2475141 2-May-2020 10:38

Sure but ignore actual sources tho.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-who-not-invited-to-join-chinas-covid-19-investigations-11981193

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freitasm

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#2475168 2-May-2020 10:55

Zepanda66:

Sure but ignore actual sources tho.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-who-not-invited-to-join-chinas-covid-19-investigations-11981193

No one linked to actual sources before. So perhaps you could calm down now? I am thinking this is too much moaning for a Saturday morning already.

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ezbee

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#2475215 2-May-2020 12:07

Hopefully after a burst of takeaway freedom things will settle down.

I do hope that this attitude ' its over already' does not spread wider, still have a ways to go.
The more responsible people are the more that can be opened faster.
Self-Health Management , as is the phrase in article below.

Taiwan while much less restrictive, is still warning its citizens to not relax as they announce 4 days without new cases.It was the fourth consecutive day with no new confirmed cases and the 17th consecutive day with no new domestic cases.

Cause to go nuts and crazy , no not really.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/04/30/2003735538

Added bold for emphasis by me.

"
Virus Outbreak: No new cases for fourth straight day
REMAINING VIGILANT: People should feel comfortable whether or not they plan to travel this weekend, but they should not let their guard down, the health minister said.
People can feel light-hearted regardless of whether they plan stay at home or travel during the International Workers’ Day long weekend, but they should not let their guard down,
“Everyone is happy to hear that there are no new cases, but it does not mean there are no sources of infection anymore, so it is important that everyone foster good living habits,” Chen said
Asked whether hostess bars and nightclubs that were ordered to suspend operations could reopen, Deputy Minister of the Interior Chen Tsung-yen (陳宗彥), deputy head of the center, said that the CECC thanks local governments and businesses for their cooperation, but hopes that they can “hold on for a little longer.”
The center is still observing the COVID-19 situation, as well as how well people perform in conducting self-health management, he said.
"

Photo of school in Taiwan FTW....

Edit: Oh thats old already, as of 1st May its 6 days without and new cases, still advised that people wear masks when visiting crowded places over the Labor Day long weekend.
https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202005010006

tdgeek

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#2475272 2-May-2020 13:04

Just been to see daughter for first time in 5 weeks. The world is alive with activity out there. Drove past a few houses where a good number were socialising. We are in unofficial Level 2 it seems.

freitasm

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#2475279 2-May-2020 13:16

Today we are extending our bubble to share some time with parents-in-law.

I was also tested this week (sore throat and despite being inside the house for six weeks I was asked by Healthline to test). The result was negative.

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#2475346 2-May-2020 13:31

Busiest Saturday in a lonnnngggg time

Less walkers. (I've been out almost daily and travel to work occasionally)

A whole lot more drivers. Traffic actually crawling at times in the small village.

And 6 new 1 death. Hmm

Five of today's cases can be traced to a known source, the Ministry says.

One case is still being investigated. The total of confirmed and probable cases is 1,485.

Of New Zealand's cases, 1,263 are reported as recovered – an increase of 11 on yesterday.

Eighty five per cent of all confirmed and probable cases have now recovered.

There are five people in hospital, and none in ICU.

FineWine

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#2475351 2-May-2020 13:55

Had the carpet cleaned on Thursday. Was meant to come on the day of level 4 start. He was just about in full hazmat suit except for full head helmet.

Hopefully will have our small back lawn of 25sqm laid with 'ready-to-lay-lawn' in the next 3 weeks.

So am supporting these single tradies.

Mind you it might come out of our government covid-19 handout if we get it. We are meant to spend it ain't we ?

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

cshwone

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#2475356 2-May-2020 14:20

tdgeek:
Just been to see daughter for first time in 5 weeks. The world is alive with activity out there. Drove past a few houses where a good number were socialising. We are in unofficial Level 2 it seems.

More like unofficial Level 1 😬

nzkiwiman

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#2475376 2-May-2020 15:35

These daily number updates are useless without significantly more information, to the point that I can't stand seeing them anymore.

mattwnz

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#2475378 2-May-2020 15:47

nzkiwiman:
These daily number updates are useless without significantly more information, to the point that I can't stand seeing them anymore.

Exactly and is a point I previously made too. Unless they are linked to significantly more information and context, or they hold a press conference so reporters can extract essential information from them about the new case, releasing numbers is largely pointless. We're want to know where and why as well as information on recent cases where they haven't been able to link the case to others.

But it does show a trend and we're are now into low single digit cases each day and if we go to back into double digits at this stage, then it won't be a good sign IMO. Mid next week onwards we should begin to see the affects of going down into level 3 and if that is starting to increase cases

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msukiwi

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#2475379 2-May-2020 15:49

New word seen today that sums up a certain part of the population:

Covidiot

(I like it!)

Paul1977

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#2475404 2-May-2020 17:02

Are they reviewing level 3 on the 11th, or a few days earlier with the possibility of actually dropping to level 2 at 11:59pm on the 11th?

I’d like to see a level 2.5 on 11 May. They should amend it to exclude gatherings of 500 people outdoors and 100 indoors. These are the things that could cause new clusters - social gatherings usually mean booze and then all social distancing goes out the window. And perhaps keep the social distance recommendation at 2m wherever possible (perhaps aim for 2m meters where possible, but never less than 1m).

This would allow most businesses to reopen with less worry about an explosion of new cases. Restaurants and the like would have to space tables out more so less customers at once, but at least they could operate. I can’t see it going well for movie theatres under any circumstance though.

If 80% of us are careful, transmission should be affected the same way as it would be with herd immunity.

I’ve changed my tune a bit, as I was initially all for extending Level 4. I now think that the longer you go with very restrictive rules, the sooner it will be that people start flouting them more and more. If you relax the rules enough to give people a good deal of their freedom back they will be far more receptive to following the less draconian rules that remain.

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#2475496 2-May-2020 18:16

Paul1977: Are they reviewing level 3 on the 11th, or a few days earlier with the possibility of actually dropping to level 2 at 11:59pm on the 11th?

I’d like to see a level 2.5 on 11 May. They should amend it to exclude gatherings of 500 people outdoors and 100 indoors. These are the things that could cause new clusters - social gatherings usually mean booze and then all social distancing goes out the window. And perhaps keep the social distance recommendation at 2m wherever possible (perhaps aim for 2m meters where possible, but never less than 1m).

This would allow most businesses to reopen with less worry about an explosion of new cases. Restaurants and the like would have to space tables out more so less customers at once, but at least they could operate. I can’t see it going well for movie theatres under any circumstance though.

If 80% of us are careful, transmission should be affected the same way as it would be with herd immunity.

I’ve changed my tune a bit, as I was initially all for extending Level 4. I now think that the longer you go with very restrictive rules, the sooner it will be that people start flouting them more and more. If you relax the rules enough to give people a good deal of their freedom back they will be far more receptive to following the less draconian rules that remain.

I think we are already operating at a 2.5 level based on what I have seen this weekend. Far more people around and people chatting in the street closer than 2 metres. But any move has to be based on factual evidence, and we are only days into level 3, and we don't yet know what effects level 3 are going to have on infection rates. It needs at least 2 weeks just to get that data, as 2 weeks should be a single full infection cycle. If the infection rate goes over 1, and we start to get more cases that can't be linked, or delays linking them, it could signal that there is actually community transmission still occurring. NZ was initially going down the elimination route, which would lead to it being eliminated in NZ, eg no new cases. This would lead us to be able to get back to a normal life out of these levels. But if we go down levels too quickly, risk being trapped in these levels for 1.5, 2 year plus, which is going to be significantly worse for the economy and businesses longer term. Also going out of level 4, down to 3, and then having to go back up to level 4 due to leaving level 4 too early, or people breaching level 3 restrictions, would be horrific. Not only that, but many people simply won't go to these public places such as restaurants anyway, until the virus is properly eliminated. That why it is so important. Just look at schools, they were expecting far more people to be going, but it is only around 1%. People simply don't want to risk getting sick or spread this nasty virus. People being complacent and flouting is going to be a probem, especially if the perceived risk has fallen in NZ. But things like instant $1k enforcement notices can help with this, like they are doing in Oz.

Also many restaurants need to be operating with a lot of tables for it to be financially worth it. I have seen restaurants with signs on them sayig they have decided not open or offer take out or delivery, because it isn't financially worth it for them. . The restaurant business model seems difficult at the best of times. Movie theaters , I can't see how tnat would work, and considering no or few movies are going to be made for possibly a long time, they are going to struggle anyway. Some business models won't work well in the post covid world, but it does mean that there will also be some new ones created.

freitasm

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#2475517 2-May-2020 21:41

mattwnz:

Movie theaters , I can't see how tnat would work, and considering no or few movies are going to be made for possibly a long time, they are going to struggle anyway. Some business models won't work well in the post covid world, but it does mean that there will also be some new ones created.

A few cinemas - mainly "Art"-types and small ones are moving to streaming.

If you folks don't follow, here is my constantly updated list of legal download/streaming services in New Zealand and I have added a few local cinemas to the list over the last few weeks.

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