2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2485044 16-May-2020 20:06

Rikkitic:

If you look at public behaviour here and elsewhere, especially America, I think there is only limited acceptance of lockdowns and once out of level 4, you would practically need martial law to get back to it. Only widespread deaths across the entire population would change the public mood. People simply are not taking this seriously enough. For better or worse, it is very much a one-way street.

So long as we keep up testing rates and reinforce the message about personal distancing etc, then hopefully we'll be able to ring-fence outbreaks.

We actually managed to do it despite having a huge influx of imported cases while facilities were nowhere near the capacity and ease of access to testing we've got now.

It's been shown (not just by NZ) that C-19 can be contained. I think we'll be okay. Level 2 is okay - it seems almost normal out there, the few shops etc I've visited - everyone was doing the right thing.

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#2485069 17-May-2020 00:34

Fred99:

Rikkitic:

If you look at public behaviour here and elsewhere, especially America, I think there is only limited acceptance of lockdowns and once out of level 4, you would practically need martial law to get back to it. Only widespread deaths across the entire population would change the public mood. People simply are not taking this seriously enough. For better or worse, it is very much a one-way street.

So long as we keep up testing rates and reinforce the message about personal distancing etc, then hopefully we'll be able to ring-fence outbreaks.

We actually managed to do it despite having a huge influx of imported cases while facilities were nowhere near the capacity and ease of access to testing we've got now.

It's been shown (not just by NZ) that C-19 can be contained. I think we'll be okay. Level 2 is okay - it seems almost normal out there, the few shops etc I've visited - everyone was doing the right thing.

Hopefully there won't be any outbreaks in NZ due to how we have done it, as Level 4, and 3 were designed to starve the virus of news hosts, by keeping people in bubbles. Our problem prior to the lockdown was the number of people returning, and those people had the virus but were not required to self isolate at the time, and then spread it at work or in rest homes. Or those that were required to self isolate but didn't. Quarantine has luckily fixed that major leak, and levels 3 and 4 have been the backstop . The current leaky areas appear to be around hospitals, and rest-homes, and staff working in both of those, where the virus seems to be able to exploit the situation. But now we are down to under 50 active cases, they are hopefully all totally ringfenced to prevent any further spread. But if we do start to get new cases trickling through again in a few weeks with the effects relaxing things under level 2 and we go double digit, then the R value maybe higher than 1, and we risk losing our chance to eliminate it. It may also indicate that we may have come out of level 4 and 3 too early, which was the opinion of several of the NZ experts on this. I would hate to be living with this virus in NZ at Christmas, and still needing to socially distance, considering all the hard work we have put into it, and that would mean

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#2485088 17-May-2020 08:43

mattwnz:

Hopefully there won't be any outbreaks in NZ due to how we have done it, as Level 4, and 3 were designed to starve the virus of news hosts, by keeping people in bubbles. Our problem prior to the lockdown was the number of people returning, and those people had the virus but were not required to self isolate at the time, and then spread it at work or in rest homes. Or those that were required to self isolate but didn't. Quarantine has luckily fixed that major leak, and levels 3 and 4 have been the backstop . The current leaky areas appear to be around hospitals, and rest-homes, and staff working in both of those, where the virus seems to be able to exploit the situation. But now we are down to under 50 active cases, they are hopefully all totally ringfenced to prevent any further spread. But if we do start to get new cases trickling through again in a few weeks with the effects relaxing things under level 2 and we go double digit, then the R value maybe higher than 1, and we risk losing our chance to eliminate it. It may also indicate that we may have come out of level 4 and 3 too early, which was the opinion of several of the NZ experts on this. I would hate to be living with this virus in NZ at Christmas, and still needing to socially distance, considering all the hard work we have put into it, and that would mean

Considering the UK's R value is under 1 i dont think there is much chance ours will go over it in the near future unless we do something really stupid and ignore everything we have been asked to do.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Fred99

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#2485117 17-May-2020 09:46

vexxxboy:

mattwnz:

Hopefully there won't be any outbreaks in NZ due to how we have done it, as Level 4, and 3 were designed to starve the virus of news hosts, by keeping people in bubbles. Our problem prior to the lockdown was the number of people returning, and those people had the virus but were not required to self isolate at the time, and then spread it at work or in rest homes. Or those that were required to self isolate but didn't. Quarantine has luckily fixed that major leak, and levels 3 and 4 have been the backstop . The current leaky areas appear to be around hospitals, and rest-homes, and staff working in both of those, where the virus seems to be able to exploit the situation. But now we are down to under 50 active cases, they are hopefully all totally ringfenced to prevent any further spread. But if we do start to get new cases trickling through again in a few weeks with the effects relaxing things under level 2 and we go double digit, then the R value maybe higher than 1, and we risk losing our chance to eliminate it. It may also indicate that we may have come out of level 4 and 3 too early, which was the opinion of several of the NZ experts on this. I would hate to be living with this virus in NZ at Christmas, and still needing to socially distance, considering all the hard work we have put into it, and that would mean

Considering the UK's R value is under 1 i dont think there is much chance ours will go over it in the near future unless we do something really stupid and ignore everything we have been asked to do.

The (R0 <1) figure probably isn't correct - they can't calculate it with any accuracy for the UK. They only have 240,000 confirmed cases yet at least 34,500 deaths, the CFR (based on deaths / "confirmed cases") of 14% must be wrong, they've almost certainly got many times more actual cases than PCR confirmed and have "lost the plot" in containing C-19. Counting "new cases" when you're probably only testing 10% of the numbers you should be testing will led to a mistake in R0 estimate.

And they're absolutely nowhere near "herd immunity" not even close. Only 0.3% of the population has confirmed infection - even if that's understated 10X, they're still only a fraction of the way toward % of the population immune that would have an observable effect - except maybe in localities where infection rates were unusually high.

If they ease lockdown, the real number of cases will surge (followed about a month later by a surge in deaths). Same with USA. Forget what "counted confirmed" case numbers are. They have no way of knowing unless they increase testing by a huge amount.

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#2485124 17-May-2020 10:23

Fred99:

The (R0 <1) figure probably isn't correct - they can't calculate it with any accuracy for the UK. They only have 240,000 confirmed cases yet at least 34,500 deaths, the CFR (based on deaths / "confirmed cases") of 14% must be wrong, they've almost certainly got many times more actual cases than PCR confirmed and have "lost the plot" in containing C-19. Counting "new cases" when you're probably only testing 10% of the numbers you should be testing will led to a mistake in R0 estimate.

And they're absolutely nowhere near "herd immunity" not even close. Only 0.3% of the population has confirmed infection - even if that's understated 10X, they're still only a fraction of the way toward % of the population immune that would have an observable effect - except maybe in localities where infection rates were unusually high.

If they ease lockdown, the real number of cases will surge (followed about a month later by a surge in deaths). Same with USA. Forget what "counted confirmed" case numbers are. They have no way of knowing unless they increase testing by a huge amount.

A Pasteur Institute study last week (summarised here by Reuters) showed 4.4% of the French population - or 2.8 million people - have had COVID-19, much higher than the official count but well short of the 65% needed for so-called “herd immunity”.

France's 27,000 deaths then start to be in the ballpark of the emerging consensus that the IFR's about 1-1.5%.
You'd expect the UK's actual number of infected to be around 3.5 million

Interestingly, if this study's borne out it also means the estimates we hear - that large segments of various countries were infected and effectively fought off the virus while asymptomatic - are incorrect. Even the most heavily affected areas (around Paris) had a less-than 10% total infection rate.

ezbee

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#2485226 17-May-2020 14:44

Along with Taiwan's great success at strangling C19 ,
Vietnam has also been highlighted in the news for its amazing progress.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12332519

There is this analysis from a magazine that has opened its C19 content from its paywall.
One might say that changes in China Vietnam relationship with the South China Sea disputes has bought Vietnam a cautious attitude to its neighbor.
Then on another level there is also a great deal in common in political ideology , so contacts within each co-operating. So Tricky mix
Though the nations that remembered experience of SARs did better, than those that did not.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/behind-vietnams-covid-19-response-deep-distrust-of-china/

Vietnam is different from Taiwan, in that its not a democracy, and not totally open media , so make what you will.
It would seem difficult to keep a complete lid on things if you had a major breakout though.
Then we have 'Democracy' like Philippines shutting down independent news organisations , Sigh....

Its one perspective, and also brings up the subject that all these nations are spying on each other, as we do.
https://www.fireeye.com/blog/threat-research/2020/04/apt32-targeting-chinese-government-in-covid-19-related-espionage.html

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neb

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#2485230 17-May-2020 15:12

ezbee:
Vietnam is different from Taiwan, in that its not a democracy, and not totally open media , so make what you will.
It would seem difficult to keep a complete lid on things if you had a major breakout though.
Then we have 'Democracy' like Philippines shutting down independent news organisations , Sigh....

The CDC has had a team on the ground in Vietnam since day one, there was a story on something like NPR that I linked to ages ago where they said, in effect "We didn't believe the figures either but after looking really hard to find counterexamples we couldn't turn up any". So unlikely as it seems, it's probably close to the truth.

ezbee

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#2485234 17-May-2020 15:30

neb:
ezbee:

Vietnam is different from Taiwan, in that its not a democracy, and not totally open media , so make what you will.
It would seem difficult to keep a complete lid on things if you had a major breakout though.
Then we have 'Democracy' like Philippines shutting down independent news organisations , Sigh....

The CDC has had a team on the ground in Vietnam since day one, there was a story on something like NPR that I linked to ages ago where they said, in effect "We didn't believe the figures either but after looking really hard to find counterexamples we couldn't turn up any". So unlikely as it seems, it's probably close to the truth.

Thanks neb, for that info, very interesting.

More co-operation with International and USA organisations.

Kinda reminds me of stories of USA vets going back to Vietnam to help the country , a kind of redemption that was met with a great deal of grace.

They got very lucky with the whole cruise ship thing too.
Hopefully its a long time before we see cruise ships again, or there is a huge change in population density on them.
Though i saw a news item where the companies are keen to come back ASAP.

neb

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#2485235 17-May-2020 15:54

ezbee:
Thanks neb, for that info, very interesting.

Here's the original NPR story:

Some may still be skeptical of Vietnam's relatively low COVID-19 case numbers. The CDC's MacArthur is not. "Our team up in Hanoi is working very, very closely with their Ministry of Health counterparts," he says. "The communications I've had with my Vietnam team is that at this point in time, [they] don't have any indication that those numbers are false."

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#2485250 17-May-2020 16:45

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/416812/level-2-rule-flip-flop-hasn-t-helped-retail-nz

From the above:

Alert level 2 restrictions were made more confusing after the government did a flip-flop on contact tracing rules, Retail New Zealand says.

Guidelines for level 2 were changed on Wednesday to now say retailers no longer have to contact trace customers, but do need to keep them two metres apart.

Retail New Zealand's chief executive Greg Harford said it's likely some shops are still collecting people's details when they don't need to, because of the change.

"Right through the Covid-19 crisis we've seen government make announcements that retailers have tried to comply with, and then things have changed very quickly.

The requirements for keeping contract tracing records for retail stores at Level 2 are quite interesting in that such records do not need to be kept if groups of customers can be kept two metres apart.

I just wonder whether it's too early to exempt retail stores from keeping contract tracing records, even when groups of customers can be kept two metres apart?

https://www.business.govt.nz/covid-19/workplace-operations-covid-19-alert-levels/

From the above:

Retail stores:

must keep groups of customers two metres apart where feasible
are not required to keep records of customers.
must meet all other health, safety and hygiene requirements.

Retail stores must keep groups of customers two metres apart, where feasible, and are not required to keep records of customers.

If a business or service by its nature requires less distancing, then they have to keep contact trace.

For the hospitality industry:

Records must be kept to enable contact tracing of staff and customers. Apps which only store information on customers' devices do not meet this requirement.

mattwnz

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#2485254 17-May-2020 17:12

frednz:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/416812/level-2-rule-flip-flop-hasn-t-helped-retail-nz

From the above:

Alert level 2 restrictions were made more confusing after the government did a flip-flop on contact tracing rules, Retail New Zealand says.

Guidelines for level 2 were changed on Wednesday to now say retailers no longer have to contact trace customers, but do need to keep them two metres apart.

Retail New Zealand's chief executive Greg Harford said it's likely some shops are still collecting people's details when they don't need to, because of the change.

"Right through the Covid-19 crisis we've seen government make announcements that retailers have tried to comply with, and then things have changed very quickly.

The requirements for keeping contract tracing records for retail stores at Level 2 are quite interesting in that such records do not need to be kept if groups of customers can be kept two metres apart.

I just wonder whether it's too early to exempt retail stores from keeping contract tracing records, even when groups of customers can be kept two metres apart?

https://www.business.govt.nz/covid-19/workplace-operations-covid-19-alert-levels/

From the above:

Retail stores:

must keep groups of customers two metres apart where feasible
are not required to keep records of customers.
must meet all other health, safety and hygiene requirements.
Retail stores must keep groups of customers two metres apart, where feasible, and are not required to keep records of customers.

If a business or service by its nature requires less distancing, then they have to keep contact trace.

For the hospitality industry:

Records must be kept to enable contact tracing of staff and customers. Apps which only store information on customers' devices do not meet this requirement.

I am not surprised there is confusion. Some rules seem to contradict others, and others seem vague as to whether it is a requirement, or just recommended. Eg using 'Should' instead of Must'.

Guidelines for all businesses

Keep contact-tracing records of anyone who will have close interaction (workers, contractors or customers). Retail businesses are not required to keep contact tracing records.

This implies to me that they don't need to keep any records. But then it is contradicted further down, when it says that

All workplaces should keep records of workers on premises (or out working) to enable contact tracing. It also doesn't however say 'must'.

Think someone has made an error by putting Retail businesses are not required to keep contact tracing records in that earlier part, as it contradicts statements further down. .But I have seen retail stores recording people going in, and IMO this is probably a good idea. I don't know why they would have done a flipflop on this.

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mattwnz

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#2485255 17-May-2020 17:17

Sidestep:

You'd expect the UK's actual number of infected to be around 3.5 million

Interestingly, if this study's borne out it also means the estimates we hear - that large segments of various countries were infected and effectively fought off the virus while asymptomatic - are incorrect. Even the most heavily affected areas (around Paris) had a less-than 10% total infection rate.

I think that was the narrative they wanted people to buy into at the time. Uk appeared to have experts on TV saying they believed that 30% of the population had had it since February but never showed symptoms. Doesn't appear to have any factual basis to it.That appeared to be back when they were going down the herd immunity route. The fact that NZs lockdown basically caused the virus to stop in it's tracks like it did, would indicate that there weren't too many asymptomatic people in NZ, otherwise we would have seen other cases occurring inside other peoples bubbles, and potentially more CT occurring. Most cases appear to have occurred from people who had already had symptoms and had already been tested, and most linked to existing clusters.

mattwnz

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#2485259 17-May-2020 17:32

Interesting audio interview here with the Director general https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300014298/new-case-of-covid19-is-a-canterbury-preschooler

Apparently tracking 1000 cases per day was the number recommended Dr Verrall. But NZs ability to contact trace at the moment is just 185 case per day, and the aim to scale it up to 500 by the end of June. But they are not expecting a spike in cases.

neb

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#2485324 17-May-2020 19:55

Maybe this should go into the mental health thread, but People Are Getting JetBlue's Cheese And Cracker Snacks Delivered To Their Homes.

People paying to eat airline food at home. This is a sign that it's really affecting mental health...

neb

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#2485327 17-May-2020 20:11

Still need more information to confirm this, but:

U.S. Government Proposed Manipulating CDC Guidelines to Avoid Mask Shortages: Whistleblower

The U.S. government proposed manipulating information about whether N95 masks worked to fight the spread of coronavirus in the general public, according to Dr. Richard Bright, a whistleblower who testified publicly for the first time on Thursday. The deception was an effort to avoid shortages and keep masks available for U.S. health care workers, but likely had a ripple effect throughout the country, leaving many people to believe that all masks are useless or even harmful during a pandemic. Bright’s testimony is the first confirmation from a high-ranking official that the U.S. government actively sought to distribute incorrect information about N95 masks during the covid-19 pandemic.

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