2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2495634 31-May-2020 12:49

Rikkitic:
Geektastic:

Some happy tourist operators. Those of us who need international visitors not so happy.

Is there no way at all to adapt your business to the current situation?

Not really. Once some other things like a house move etc are out of the way, I will look at doing some small workshops. What we were doing, planning, booking and guiding bespoke luxury trips for HNWI with an interest in photography, can’t start until the international visitors are allowed back.

Kiwis would never pay the sort of costs involved in that just to see their own country.

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#2495645 31-May-2020 12:58

Geektastic:

Kiwis would never pay the sort of costs involved in that just to see their own country.

Yes - a similar situation for us (and our neighbours). It may be hard to adapt.

Kiwis just aren't willing to spring for that Salt Air pick-up from Kauri Cliffs (which remains closed anyway)..

Luckily we have more than one string to our bow, it's the locals - the helicopter pilots and tour guides, the iwi who collected access fees - who'll suffer.

tdgeek

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#2495648 31-May-2020 13:06

Geektastic:

Not really. Once some other things like a house move etc are out of the way, I will look at doing some small workshops. What we were doing, planning, booking and guiding bespoke luxury trips for HNWI with an interest in photography, can’t start until the international visitors are allowed back.

Kiwis would never pay the sort of costs involved in that just to see their own country.

Not many, no. Australians? That may be a couple of months away

Geektastic

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#2495830 31-May-2020 17:57

Sidestep:

Geektastic:

Kiwis would never pay the sort of costs involved in that just to see their own country.

Yes - a similar situation for us (and our neighbours). It may be hard to adapt.

Kiwis just aren't willing to spring for that Salt Air pick-up from Kauri Cliffs (which remains closed anyway)..

Luckily we have more than one string to our bow, it's the locals - the helicopter pilots and tour guides, the iwi who collected access fees - who'll suffer.

I know. I miss the $4,000 helicopter picnic lunches...!

mattwnz

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#2495878 31-May-2020 18:32

cshwone:

mattwnz:

Only time will really tell what is going to happen on this. IN the UK, their R0 figure is supposedly only just below 1, and their cases have been reasonably steady while in lockdown. But with the easing of their lockdown, they expect a second wave to occur. I haven't really seen any predictions or projections of how experts see things going in terms of numbers, say in 1,2,3,5, years down the track if there is no vaccine. Thank god we may have effectively eliminated it from NZ, so if that is the case, eventually in a few months we maybe back to a totally normal life again, within NZ, including all older people. In the UK, and other countries that are now relying on herd immunity, older people may have lost their freedom of a normal life, until a vaccine comes along.

I am 64 and fill a fairly unique role at work - so no short term replacement available. I also travelled extensively for work, primarily the Americas and Europe. Under the new normal that is gone. We may have virtually eliminated but in a "No Vaccine" world I will not be travelling overseas to high risk areas.

Equally, we may have a normal environment within NZ but cannot afford to let anyone in from a high risk country without surety of some form. Cleverer people than me will work out what that is but we can only have our Domestic Normal if we protect our borders.

The new normal is a vastly different world.

I can see this sort of thing being the new normal https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/121681820/avatar-crew-touch-down-in-wellington-in-historic-flight-from-la . I just hope all these people will be under strict quaratnie away from each other. Not sure if 14 days is long enough if they are from a hotspot, due to there being some cases which appear to have been outside the 14days. .

It has only really been in the last 3-5 decades that air travel has allowed people to travel more and more around the world quickly and and cheaply . Prior to that, people had to spend weeks or months on a ship. Even back in the 80's travelling overseas to go on holiday etc, wasn't that common, partly because it was so expensive back then. Travelling by ship is a longer period than people will have to spend in quarantine, depending on where they are travelling to.

I guess it partly comes down to whether people are prepared wear masks and social distance, which is what they will have to go for potentially years in the US, or UK, and other countries. Or do we want to live a normal domestic life inside NZ like it was pre COVID, without having to worry about catching it every time we go outside and interact with others. Also if we reintroduce the virus into NZ, there will be the ongoing risk of enforced lockdowns by the government every so often if it can't be controlled and all cases traced, in order to 'flatten the curve' and save our health system from getting overwhelmed and reduce deaths. This would also be terrible for businesses, and the Reserve bank has already said that another level 4 lockdown in NZ would be a disaster.
Very few countries in the world will have this choice, because very few countries acted fast enough to potentially eliminate the virus. China, Taiwan, and a few other countries may eliminate it. But many other countries now don't have any chance.

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#2495879 31-May-2020 18:36

Geektastic:

Kiwis would never pay the sort of costs involved in that just to see their own country.

This sort of thing never lasts forever. There was always the risk that people who were previously prepared to pay high amounts for tourism, may dry up, especially after a financial crisis. Things change . Businesses must adapt or close. It is part of having a business, as not all businesses can last forever.

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#2495930 31-May-2020 20:32

mattwnz:

I can see this sort of thing being the new normal https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/121681820/avatar-crew-touch-down-in-wellington-in-historic-flight-from-la . I just hope all these people will be under strict quaratnie away from each other. Not sure if 14 days is long enough if they are from a hotspot, due to there being some cases which appear to have been outside the 14days. .

It has only really been in the last 3-5 decades that air travel has allowed people to travel more and more around the world quickly and and cheaply . Prior to that, people had to spend weeks or months on a ship. Even back in the 80's travelling overseas to go on holiday etc, wasn't that common, partly because it was so expensive back then. Travelling by ship is a longer period than people will have to spend in quarantine, depending on where they are travelling to.

I guess it partly comes down to whether people are prepared wear masks and social distance, which is what they will have to go for potentially years in the US, or UK, and other countries. Or do we want to live a normal domestic life inside NZ like it was pre COVID, without having to worry about catching it every time we go outside and interact with others. Also if we reintroduce the virus into NZ, there will be the ongoing risk of enforced lockdowns by the government every so often if it can't be controlled and all cases traced, in order to 'flatten the curve' and save our health system from getting overwhelmed and reduce deaths. This would also be terrible for businesses, and the Reserve bank has already said that another level 4 lockdown in NZ would be a disaster.
Very few countries in the world will have this choice, because very few countries acted fast enough to potentially eliminate the virus. China, Taiwan, and a few other countries may eliminate it. But many other countries now don't have any chance.

in the 1910s the flu became a pandemic that still exists today despite having no air travel

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#2495931 31-May-2020 20:34

mattwnz:. China, Taiwan, and a few other countries may eliminate it. But many other countries now don't have any chance.

not yet https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-18/over-100-million-in-china-s-northeast-thrown-back-under-lockdown

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3084203/chinas-jilin-city-goes-partial-lockdown-contain-coronavirus

Geektastic

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#2495964 31-May-2020 22:13

mattwnz:

Geektastic:

Kiwis would never pay the sort of costs involved in that just to see their own country.

This sort of thing never lasts forever. There was always the risk that people who were previously prepared to pay high amounts for tourism, may dry up, especially after a financial crisis. Things change . Businesses must adapt or close. It is part of having a business, as not all businesses can last forever.

There is no shortage of people willing to pay; merely the present fact that they cannot come and do it.

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#2496018 1-Jun-2020 09:05

The Washington Post - Coronavirus Updates: Americans cluster as the nation fractures

today

“We’re millennials, we’re healthy,” a young woman told The Washington Post as she sat with her friends outside a bustling lakeside grill in Missouri this weekend.

“The pandemic is made up,” said a man in line with his daughter, grandson and hundreds of strangers at a North Carolina speedway.

“I can't breathe!” chanted demonstrators who gathered by the thousands in cities across the country, quoting from George Floyd's final words as he lay dying under the weight of a Minneapolis police officer last week.

Be it from outrage, apathy or simple contrarianism, social distancing strictures are rapidly dissolving as crowds party, protest or riot in American cities that just days earlier resembled ghost towns.

The coronavirus is almost certainly spreading among them, and already appears to be staging a national comeback.

Arizona, Mississippi, South Carolina, Utah and Wisconsin all set record highs for new cases reported Friday ... all those states relaxed their quarantine rules this month.

At the same time, the disorder is making it harder for health officials to track and suppress new outbreaks. ...

I'm glad that I live in New Zealand. 😕

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#2496020 1-Jun-2020 09:06

in the 1910s the flu became a pandemic that still exists today despite having no air travel

but it only turned into a pandemic because of the first world war and all the troops returning to their countries

Common sense is not as common as you think.

mattwnz

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#2496167 1-Jun-2020 15:40

vexxxboy:

in the 1910s the flu became a pandemic that still exists today despite having no air travel

but it only turned into a pandemic because of the first world war and all the troops returning to their countries

Yeap, it was again travel that spread it, and they had people traveling in large crowds in confined spaces on ships etc, were it could just spread. But I understand the 1910s flu pandemic was a worse strain than the strain we have today, and that that variant of the flue did die out or mutate to a less deadly version.

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#2496297 1-Jun-2020 21:01

Sidestep:

Geektastic:

Kiwis would never pay the sort of costs involved in that just to see their own country.

Yes - a similar situation for us (and our neighbours). It may be hard to adapt.

Kiwis just aren't willing to spring for that Salt Air pick-up from Kauri Cliffs (which remains closed anyway)..

Luckily we have more than one string to our bow, it's the locals - the helicopter pilots and tour guides, the iwi who collected access fees - who'll suffer.

There seems to be a delusion at the moment that life will just pickup and carry on like it did prior to COVID. Tourism earned 20% of NZ export GDP. For the next 12-48 months that money is just gone.

Unless a vaccine is readily available in 12 months time NZ will have to decide whether to re-open to the world and accept COVID. Without a vaccine it is here to stay and most of the world has accepted it in some form.

empacher48

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#2496300 1-Jun-2020 21:25

After watching the news and looking at the large number of people gathering for the Black Lives Matter protests across the country today, I am beginning to prepare myself that we will be back in Level 4 in about a month's time.

I didn't see social distancing, I didn't see limits on the gathering to 100 people in line with the Level 2 rules.

I don't think anyone who went along today will self isolate for 14 days after venturing out either.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with what they were protesting about. But at this time, when we are so close to elimination, I wouldn't be surprised to see us go backwards in a month.

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#2496304 1-Jun-2020 21:51

Handle9:

There seems to be a delusion at the moment that life will just pickup and carry on like it did prior to COVID. Tourism earned 20% of NZ export GDP. For the next 12-48 months that money is just gone.

Unless a vaccine is readily available in 12 months time NZ will have to decide whether to re-open to the world and accept COVID. Without a vaccine it is here to stay and most of the world has accepted it in some form.

In terms of balance of trade, the lost export earnings with be substantially balanced out by New Zealanders not spending money on overseas holidays.

There is likely to be a bit of an uptick in domestic travel & hence the spending will prop up some of the tourism industry.

That said, the distribution of tourism spend is going to be well different to what was previously the case. The tourism industry looks at what New Zealanders spend overseas, and hope that will all end up here. I don't think this will be the case:

New Zealanders are more likely drive (likely their own car rather than a rental if same island), and are much less likely than take a bus tour, or private guide/driver than an international tourist.
General less need or desire to use guides in ones own country.
Anything cruise focused is out.
Cheap souvenirs are basically out, little demand for that domestically.
Anything to do with Forex is out
Some New Zealanders own private motorhomes, Yachts / Launches and/or batches which allow them to take domestic holidays with less interaction with the tourism industry.
I think New Zealanders are expecting to spend less money here. The tourisem industry hopes that the New Zealander who took a helicopter flight over the grand canyon last year will take one over the southern alps this year. I think the absence of the "we are only here once" factor will mean the latter is less common.
Many are holding out for Aussie or the Pacific islands to re-open, as the purpose of many New Zealanders mid-winter holidays is to escape winter.
Some tourism operates i.e. THL (Britz, Maui etc), are doing epic below cost specials that will essentially suck business from their competitor's.

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