2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2496317 1-Jun-2020 22:34

There seems to be a delusion at the moment that life will just pickup and carry on like it did prior to COVID. Tourism earned 20% of NZ export GDP. For the next 12-48 months that money is just gone.

Unless a vaccine is readily available in 12 months time NZ will have to decide whether to re-open to the world and accept COVID. Without a vaccine it is here to stay and most of the world has accepted it in some form.

Even if NZ opens the borders tomorrow many of those tourists won't return. No one will want to travel to a covid hotspot for a holiday. To eliminate covid has a cost of over 100 billion and nz can only afford to do that once. Imo people travelling will need to factor in a quarantine period. Many of the high paying tourists are those who would be worst affected by the virus

surfisup1000

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#2496323 1-Jun-2020 23:10

Who thought that allowing the Avatar film crew to mingle with locals was OK?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/121686690/guests-stunned-to-find-they-are-staying-alongside-avatar-crew-direct-from-covid19-hot-zone

Why did the hotel not provide isolated check-in facilities? Just one new case could cost the nation dearly.

I hope the media would be putting such questions to the PM.

Handle9

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#2496324 1-Jun-2020 23:11

mattwnz:

There seems to be a delusion at the moment that life will just pickup and carry on like it did prior to COVID. Tourism earned 20% of NZ export GDP. For the next 12-48 months that money is just gone.

Unless a vaccine is readily available in 12 months time NZ will have to decide whether to re-open to the world and accept COVID. Without a vaccine it is here to stay and most of the world has accepted it in some form.

Even if NZ opens the borders tomorrow many of those tourists won't return. No one will want to travel to a covid hotspot for a holiday. To eliminate covid has a cost of over 100 billion and nz can only afford to do that once. Imo people travelling will need to factor in a quarantine period. Many of the high paying tourists are those who would be worst affected by the virus

A fair bit of the world has accepted that it is here and not going away. Internationally it can't be eradicated/eliminated and tourism and international travel is too important economically to permanently stop. There is a massive amount of pent up demand for travel and leisure, which will restart. It'll take several years but the travel numbers will rebound.

NZ will need to dramatically reshape its economy and face significant long term unemployment if it wants to stay isolated. The current stimulus activities for tourism aren't sustainable and a lot of the associated CAPEX has been stopped. That in turn dramatically affects the supply chain and kills a lot of jobs.

The economic effects of covid are only beginning to be felt and it will get a lot worse before it gets better.

freitasm

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#2496445 2-Jun-2020 09:00

While I understand people feel strongly about someone else's rights, we all know the problems in America are deeply rooted in their institutional racism, military adoration and disregard for people's rights - even though those are in their constitution.

However, New Zealand is already fighting its own war and we have employed all five million of us to win it.

The actions of 5,000 people who joined a virtue-signalling march can easily put our last two months-worth of efforts away.

We don't need two war fronts. People had to be creative to show support for the oppressed in another country - but reality is that this happens every day, everywhere, while we are here trying to make sure people are healthy.

Stupid move.

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#2496447 2-Jun-2020 09:04

freitasm:

While I understand people feel strongly about someone else's rights, we all know the problems in America are deeply rooted in their institutional racism, military adoration and disregard for people's rights - even though those are in their constitution.

However, New Zealand is already fighting its own war and we have employed all five million of us to win it.

The actions of 5,000 people who joined a virtue-signalling march can easily put our last two months-worth of efforts away.

We don't need two war fronts. People had to be creative to show support for the oppressed in another country - but reality is that this happens every day, everywhere, while we are here trying to make sure people are healthy.

Stupid move.

QFT Absolutely this.

WolfChop

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#2496557 2-Jun-2020 11:07

freitasm:

While I understand people feel strongly about someone else's rights, we all know the problems in America are deeply rooted in their institutional racism, military adoration and disregard for people's rights - even though those are in their constitution.

However, New Zealand is already fighting its own war and we have employed all five million of us to win it.

The actions of 5,000 people who joined a virtue-signalling march can easily put our last two months-worth of efforts away.

We don't need two war fronts. People had to be creative to show support for the oppressed in another country - but reality is that this happens every day, everywhere, while we are here trying to make sure people are healthy.

Stupid move.

Their hearts were in the right place but the timing was completely wrong. If this protest occurred outside of a pandemic we wouldn't be having nearly as many people condemning it.

Yet, there are people proudly boasting that "oh well if you don't support the protests then clearly you have a problem with black lives and are part of the problem"

How about: it is possible to show support for the movement while also trying to adhere to the current government regulations around covid?

Many of us have been isolated and working at home with internet, social media, Zoom etc. Can we continue to do that until after we get this pandemic down to more measurable control?

The majority of us have placed our faith in the govt and health experts on how to deal with this pandemic. Yet, 2000 people on a seemingly random day seem to know better than Jacinda? than Ashley Bloomfield? than the rest of NZ?

They put our previous two months of hard work at risk. For what? Virtue-signalling and shallow self-righteousness.

This isn't about solidarity - this is about you feeling good about yourselves, patting yourselves on the back and letting everybody on Instagram/Facebook know about it.

You want to do something about it? Donate to George Floyd's GoFundMe page. As I have.

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wellygary

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#2496616 2-Jun-2020 11:37

OK, Queensland can stand down from its concern about hidden COVID transmission, the death in Blackwater was not COVID positive.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/418058/tests-reveal-australian-30-year-old-did-not-die-from-covid-19

ezbee

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#2496643 2-Jun-2020 12:11

It can be difficult to understand with this virus that mild cases can hide transmission for extended periods.
16 days clear in Hong Kong they may have thought everything must be ok, just watch returnees at the boarder.
Well look at the amount of "its all over" , "get back to normal" comments from us.

Well on the 17th day this can still happen.

"Health authorities in Hong Kong are investigating a possible workplace transmission of Covid-19 after a woman employed at an imported food warehouse was confirmed with the coronavirus on Sunday, while two of her colleagues tested weak positive."
"The 34-year-old woman is on a ventilator at Prince of Wales Hospital; her husband has also been confirmed with disease"
"the two other women who tested weak positive had been sick much earlier, between April 25 and 27,"
"Their other 25 colleagues will be sent to quarantine centres.
Up to 100 other people who worked in the same building will also be asked to give samples for testing."
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3086865/coronavirus-hong-kong-records-first-locally

Then today more cases linked to this uncovered.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3086933/coronavirus-amid-new-hong-kong-infections
"They involve two of the woman’s colleagues and four of her neighbours, as well as the paramedic who transported her to hospital"

We are certainly lucky we can mostly with a little care behave 'almost' as normal.
Just a bit of watching distances, avoid crowding closely in queues, space out a bit in enclosed spaces.
If you do want to travel then don't play up when Airline gives you a mask, show a bit of grace , and consideration for your fellow passengers.

mattwnz

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#2496946 2-Jun-2020 17:33

ezbee:

It can be difficult to understand with this virus that mild cases can hide transmission for extended periods.
16 days clear in Hong Kong they may have thought everything must be ok, just watch returnees at the boarder.
Well look at the amount of "its all over" , "get back to normal" comments from us.

Well on the 17th day this can still happen.

"Health authorities in Hong Kong are investigating a possible workplace transmission of Covid-19 after a woman employed at an imported food warehouse was confirmed with the coronavirus on Sunday, while two of her colleagues tested weak positive."
"The 34-year-old woman is on a ventilator at Prince of Wales Hospital; her husband has also been confirmed with disease"
"the two other women who tested weak positive had been sick much earlier, between April 25 and 27,"
"Their other 25 colleagues will be sent to quarantine centres.
Up to 100 other people who worked in the same building will also be asked to give samples for testing."
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3086865/coronavirus-hong-kong-records-first-locally

Then today more cases linked to this uncovered.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3086933/coronavirus-amid-new-hong-kong-infections
"They involve two of the woman’s colleagues and four of her neighbours, as well as the paramedic who transported her to hospital"

We are certainly lucky we can mostly with a little care behave 'almost' as normal.
Just a bit of watching distances, avoid crowding closely in queues, space out a bit in enclosed spaces.
If you do want to travel then don't play up when Airline gives you a mask, show a bit of grace , and consideration for your fellow passengers.

This is the issue. It is like the story of people running out into the calm of of a cyclone to celebrate it is over because all signs are that it is over. But that was only half of the cyclone, and they all then end up dying when they are caught out. IMO unfortunately because there is now an election occurring, there is a lot of political posturing going on, and pressure going on the government, calling for level 1 now, which is not supported by most NZs the top epidemiologists.
But if the virus starts up again, due to there being covid infected material or hidden cases, we may have wasted billions, when we have proven that elimination is possible with the physical isolation that has been occurring. We should be learning from places like Hong Kong, Taiwan and China, as they certainly don't want to have to live with the virus. The only countries that seem to want to live with it, are those where it is largely too late and will be too costly to eliminate it at this late stage. So many of those countries will have mass death, when it could have been avoided. Is NZ willing to put our Covid free status at risk, just for tourism without the need for quarantine?

frankv

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#2497454 3-Jun-2020 16:06

I'm wondering about the long series of zero new infections, and the people coming in from overseas. The zeros must mean that no-one coming in recently has had the infection. Which seems a bit surprising. I had this mental picture of the quarantine hotels being quite full. Maybe the numbers are actually quite small? Anyone know how many people are coming in?

For the USA, to choose a largish source of people as an example, Worldometer reports 5,686 infections/million population. That's a 0.6% probability that a random American is infected, or 1 in 176 people. Western Europe has similar figures. So, for every 176 people arriving here from Western Europe or the USA, I expect one case of covid-19 (maybe more if infections spread in the aircraft) to be found. Unless people coming here are unrepresentative, and have a lower incidence of the disease?

Excluding the Avatar film crew, who tested clear beforehand (and hopefully isolated from the rest of the US population after being tested), have we not had 176 people come into NZ from the USA or Western Europe since 25/4/20 (the last arrival date recorded for a case originating overseas)?

wellygary

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#2497469 3-Jun-2020 16:35

frankv:

I'm wondering about the long series of zero new infections, and the people coming in from overseas. The zeros must mean that no-one coming in recently has had the infection. Which seems a bit surprising. I had this mental picture of the quarantine hotels being quite full. Maybe the numbers are actually quite small? Anyone know how many people are coming in?

For the USA, to choose a largish source of people as an example, Worldometer reports 5,686 infections/million population. That's a 0.6% probability that a random American is infected, or 1 in 176 people. Western Europe has similar figures. So, for every 176 people arriving here from Western Europe or the USA, I expect one case of covid-19 (maybe more if infections spread in the aircraft) to be found. Unless people coming here are unrepresentative, and have a lower incidence of the disease?

Excluding the Avatar film crew, who tested clear beforehand (and hopefully isolated from the rest of the US population after being tested), have we not had 176 people come into NZ from the USA or Western Europe since 25/4/20 (the last arrival date recorded for a case originating overseas)?

Daily passenger arrivals are here

https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-statistics/

Quarantine numbers are here

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-border-controls/covid-19-quarantine-and-managed-isolation-numbers

The most recent declared imported case was 10 May

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/2-new-cases-covid-19-3

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ben28

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#2497537 3-Jun-2020 17:45

I suspect people about to fly to NZ are self quaranting for a few weeks before flying, as the last thing they want would be to be denied boarding due to having Covid symptoms . Especially if they are travelling in a group.

I'm not sure how much prescreening occurs eg temperature checks, anyone who looks sick is given a thorough check, actual covid tests at the airport...???

ben28

tdgeek

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#2497540 3-Jun-2020 17:56

I thought there may have been a backlash on the film people. There has been in parts of the media. But they have tested negative, and quarantined, part of that is taxpayer cost (security) but they are paying (accommodation, food etc). Thats what Wellington and NZ needs. A few hundred million revenue, jobs, prestige for Kiwiland. Who knows, we may become a movie location bypassing issues with Covid-19 for a while.

tdgeek

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#2497546 3-Jun-2020 18:07

More good news, a lot of NZ hospitality can get back on track

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/06/coronavirus-alert-level-1-move-a-game-changer-for-hospitality-industry-expert.html

ockel

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#2497557 3-Jun-2020 18:42

tdgeek:

I thought there may have been a backlash on the film people. There has been in parts of the media. But they have tested negative, and quarantined, part of that is taxpayer cost (security) but they are paying (accommodation, food etc). Thats what Wellington and NZ needs. A few hundred million revenue, jobs, prestige for Kiwiland. Who knows, we may become a movie location bypassing issues with Covid-19 for a while.

Yes its good for the film industry but its the hypocritical exception to the rule. Take the fishing boat that needs engineering repairs in Picton - the crew have been at sea for months, the only port they have been is American Samoa (which has had no cases of Covid) and despite the request to dock for repairs (with associated quarantine) they have been refused. Thats millions of dollars of work that has been denied to the local economy. Without applying common sense or consistency. Its the typical endorsement of how this crisis has been managed - poorly.

Edit: link added

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/content/tvnz/onenews/story/2020/06/02/dozens-of-engineering-jobs-at-risk-with-foreign-ships-unable-to.html

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

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