2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2500330 8-Jun-2020 09:29

tdgeek:
mattwnz:

Who would be testing something like that, before using them?

The buyer/wholesaler. Its a facemask not the Space Shuttle, if you bought a supply of N95 facemarks would you not ensure they are N95 spec? Im not a Purchasing Officer but surely this is Purchasing Officer 101? Its China so check more, its Covid-19 so be sure.

The correct scenario is they arrived, and were found non compliant to N95 spec so sent back for a credit. Not sued an age later, which makes it seem a political issue.

Were they faulty, fake or just unsuitable? You can get N95/FPP2 masks with valves that may work fine as far as breathing in but don't stop the wearer spreading outgoing air. You would have to know more than just grab any N95 masks on offer.

Fred99

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#2500391 8-Jun-2020 10:20

kingdragonfly:
Batman:

Brazil stops publishing data https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12337861

Why didn't Trump think of that first?

Data is collated and published by individual state health departments, so if federal (ie CDC) figures didn't match what was public information from the states, then it would be very obvious. OTOH the data is fudged - a final figure on number of deaths will only be able to be estimated from "excess deaths" and will be higher than official C-19 deaths (COD attributed to C-19 on death certificates).

Bolsonaro's attitide about about C19 include statements like "so what?", "My name’s Messiah" (in reference to his second name - Messias") "but I can’t work miracles." and "we will all die one day".

frankv

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#2500396 8-Jun-2020 10:30

Fred99:

OTOH the data is fudged - a final figure on number of deaths will only be able to be estimated from "excess deaths" and will be higher than official C-19 deaths (COD attributed to C-19 on death certificates).

I think fudged is a bit strong, with implications of deliberate falsification. The problem is there are varying ways of deciding whether someone died *of* covid-19. In Belgium, they include everyone who had covid-19 symptoms, which leads to an overstatement of c-19 deaths.

[edit]: Testing for antibodies may confirm that someone has the disease, but they won't necessarily have died of it.

"Excess deaths" may also be problematic: people may die because they can't be hospitalised or get into ICU because of covid-19, but not actually have the disease themselves. Should they be counted or not?

Batman

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#2500407 8-Jun-2020 11:08

kingdragonfly:
Batman:
Brazil stops publishing data https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12337861

Why didn't Trump think of that first?

He doesn't think. But as soon as he reads the fox news about this I'm sure he'll want to.

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#2500409 8-Jun-2020 11:10

frankv:
Fred99:

OTOH the data is fudged - a final figure on number of deaths will only be able to be estimated from "excess deaths" and will be higher than official C-19 deaths (COD attributed to C-19 on death certificates).

I think fudged is a bit strong, with implications of deliberate falsification. The problem is there are varying ways of deciding whether someone died *of* covid-19. In Belgium, they include everyone who had covid-19 symptoms, which leads to an overstatement of c-19 deaths.

And Italy I believe

Fred99

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#2500515 8-Jun-2020 12:24

frankv:

Fred99:

OTOH the data is fudged - a final figure on number of deaths will only be able to be estimated from "excess deaths" and will be higher than official C-19 deaths (COD attributed to C-19 on death certificates).

I think fudged is a bit strong, with implications of deliberate falsification. The problem is there are varying ways of deciding whether someone died *of* covid-19. In Belgium, they include everyone who had covid-19 symptoms, which leads to an overstatement of c-19 deaths.

[edit]: Testing for antibodies may confirm that someone has the disease, but they won't necessarily have died of it.

"Excess deaths" may also be problematic: people may die because they can't be hospitalised or get into ICU because of covid-19, but not actually have the disease themselves. Should they be counted or not?

Testing for antibodies may confirm that somebody "had" the disease at some time in the past - not whether they "have" an active infection - then the test subject to accuracy (false positive/negative).

I don't think there will be a better way to calculate total deaths than use "excess" deaths, then estimate adjustments - ie for increased deaths for other causes - deferred diagnosis & treatment etc. Another way to look at it is to not even attempt to make the adjustments - it's a pandemic - and they died as a result of the effect of the pandemic on availability of "normal care" - if not the disease. Like after a natural disaster like a flood, people may die from unsanitary water supplies or starve - but wouldn't have done so if there hadn't been a flood.

There seems to be a global competition "score card" thing happening, the whole thing is politicised. As you point out, C-19 deaths may be overestimated in Belgium, but I'm sure that they're underestimated in many (probably most) countries, including the US and UK.

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floydbloke

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#2500585 8-Jun-2020 13:10

Smashed it!!!

Sometimes I use big words I don't always fully understand in an effort to make myself sound more photosynthesis.

wellygary

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#2500598 8-Jun-2020 13:25

floydbloke:

Smashed it!!!

We are certain to have further imported cases, whether it be as part of the 14 day quarantine regime,...or once the borders open.... having the ability to quickly detect and trace these is now vital

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#2500599 8-Jun-2020 13:31

floydbloke:

Smashed it!!!

for now.

we are about 25 mins into an 80 min match +/- extra time.

tdgeek

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#2500601 8-Jun-2020 13:33

Batman:

for now.

we are about 25 mins into an 80 min match +/- extra time.

Thats very glass half empty. We all know that. Why? As the PM and AG have been saying that for a long time.

tdgeek

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#2500604 8-Jun-2020 13:39

wellygary:

floydbloke:

Smashed it!!!

We are certain to have further imported cases, whether it be as part of the 14 day quarantine regime,...or once the borders open.... having the ability to quickly detect and trace these is now vital

Yep, for sure. All ready and waiting now. This milestone means we are as prepared as we would ever be

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neb

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#2500652 8-Jun-2020 15:14

frankv:
I think fudged is a bit strong, with implications of deliberate falsification. The problem is there are varying ways of deciding whether someone died *of* covid-19. In Belgium, they include everyone who had covid-19 symptoms, which leads to an overstatement of c-19 deaths.

A lot of US states are definitely fudging their data, they reclassify both deaths and suspected cases in a manner that makes them non-Covid19 to make things look rosier than they actually are. Google "us states manipulate covid19" for lots of coverage on this.

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#2500665 8-Jun-2020 15:21

So...Level 1 from midnight tonight.

Handsome Dan Has Spoken.
Handsome Dan needs to stop adding three dots to every sentence...

Handsome Dan does not currently have a side hustle as the mascot for Yale

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freitasm

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#2500666 8-Jun-2020 15:24

Press release:

New Zealand will move to Covid-19 Alert Level 1 at 11:59pm on Monday 8 June, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced.

There are no active cases in the country, almost 40,000 tests in the past 17 days have turned up no positive results and it’s been 40 days since the last case of community transmission – and 22 days since that person finished self-isolation.

“With care and commitment our team of 5 million has united to protect New Zealanders’ health and ensure we now have a head-start on our economic recovery,” Jacinda Ardern said.

“At Level 1 we become one of the most open economies in the world and now we must seize our advantage of going hard and early to beat Covid-19 and use the same focus and determination we applied to our health response to rebuild our economy.

“Caution and hard work got us down the mountain safely when the descent is always the most perilous part. At every step there have been those who’ve pushed us to do something different, to go faster or further, but our results speak for themselves.

“We are confident we have eliminated transmission of the virus in New Zealand for now, but elimination is not a point in time – it is a sustained effort.

“The world will remain in the grip of a global pandemic for some time to come and we will see cases here again, which we must remain prepared for,” Jacinda Ardern said.

Reserve Bank analysis shows the economy under Level 1 is expected to be operating just 3.8 per cent below normal levels. That’s an improvement from 8.8 per cent below normal under Level 2, 19 per cent below normal under Level 3, and 37 per cent under Level 4.

More details are at covid19.govt

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Dingbatt

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#2500668 8-Jun-2020 15:26

Handsomedan:

So...Level 1 from midnight tonight.

Unless it has some legal significance, why didn’t she just say level 1 from now? (Especially since most people are acting like it’s level 1 already).

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

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