2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2501649 9-Jun-2020 18:40

Perhaps related to COVID-19 eradication, even though March was bad for the NZD-USD exchange rate, it's looks like we've almost fully recovered.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=NZD&to=USD&view=1Y

ockel

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#2501650 9-Jun-2020 18:42

tdgeek:

To be honest I dont see a huge value in the bubbles.

Pacific: No islanders want to come here now and ski. Yes, Kiwis can go there and tourist, I favour that for their sakes. Small, poor, a few Kiwis can make a difference

Australia: Why? Kiwis that go there add nothing to the NZ economy, apart from negative balance of payments. How many Aussies will come here?? A few, not many I feel. Ski fields only

So, if not many will travel either way and if we only get the benefit of a few ski bunnies, its probably safer to not have it. That keeps NZ tourists seeing local deals, all air routes are now operating, and local tourists are about 50% of total tourism, that will be more now if there are deals, Last long weekend there was a LOT of activity.

Australia is our biggest tourist group. https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/

And the biggest months that Australians come to NZ for a holiday are December and January, not exactly ski season. https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/markets/australia/

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#2501664 9-Jun-2020 18:53

ockel:

tdgeek:

To be honest I dont see a huge value in the bubbles.

Pacific: No islanders want to come here now and ski. Yes, Kiwis can go there and tourist, I favour that for their sakes. Small, poor, a few Kiwis can make a difference

Australia: Why? Kiwis that go there add nothing to the NZ economy, apart from negative balance of payments. How many Aussies will come here?? A few, not many I feel. Ski fields only

So, if not many will travel either way and if we only get the benefit of a few ski bunnies, its probably safer to not have it. That keeps NZ tourists seeing local deals, all air routes are now operating, and local tourists are about 50% of total tourism, that will be more now if there are deals, Last long weekend there was a LOT of activity.

Australia is our biggest tourist group. https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/

And the biggest months that Australians come to NZ for a holiday are December and January, not exactly ski season. https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/markets/australia/

NZ is Australias second largest tourist market. The two countries are hugely important to each other, more so to NZ due to our relatively small market.

There is a huge amount of business being done Trans Tasman. Most larger organisations have the regional HQ in Australia with NZ offices reporting to them. Travel is the grease that keeps the wheels of the NZ economy turning.

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#2501721 9-Jun-2020 20:00

DS248:
Satellite images of Wuhan may suggest coronavirus was spreading as early as August

Not firm evidence & still not peer-reviewed but is conceivable.

Tenuous, I'd say.

Depending on the time of the satellite pass, (just before outpatient clinics start, for example) you could easily get double the cars in an NZ hospital car park. 171 cars at the largest hospital? I'd say there would be more than that at most NZ hospitals in the middle of the night. What proportion of Chinese people go to hospital by car? What proportion by public transport? It's a very American (or Kiwi) thing to assume that everyone drives to hospital. And car ownership in China is skyrocketing, so you would expect more cars in a hospital car park every year anyway.

The spike in Internet searches maybe. Internet access is increasing every year, so again you would expect an increase in number of searches for any particular set of keywords. But in this case it's a relative proportion, so more likely to be significant.

FrankV's rule of headline interpretation: the word "may" should be replaced by "probably don't".

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#2501774 9-Jun-2020 22:30

well it turns out WHO supports bat eating and rhinoceros killing (indirectly)?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2020/05/04/did-the-whos-endorsement-of-tcm-contribute-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/#3ff9cce11c04

neb

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#2501782 10-Jun-2020 00:05

Batman:
well it turns out WHO supports bat eating and rhinoceros killing (indirectly)?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2020/05/04/did-the-whos-endorsement-of-tcm-contribute-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/#3ff9cce11c04

You have to go through multiple levels of redirection to get to the original story, and like Chinese whispers it changes a bit on each jump. What the WHO did was recognise TCM, not endorse it. In rural China with no access to evidence-based/Western/whatever medicine, the alternative is TCM. So several hundred million people (figure freely pulled out of thin air) rely on TCM, and what the WHO did was recognise this fact.

After about four or five levels of retelling that's turned into "WHO endorses eating baby fur seals" or whatever.

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#2501784 10-Jun-2020 00:33

Handle9:

NZ is Australias second largest tourist market. The two countries are hugely important to each other, more so to NZ due to our relatively small market.

There is a huge amount of business being done Trans Tasman. Most larger organisations have the regional HQ in Australia with NZ offices reporting to them. Travel is the grease that keeps the wheels of the NZ economy turning.

Well the ball is clearly in Australia's court. They need to have a clear elimination policy to eliminate the virus from their shores. Even Todd Muller , the opposition leader has acknowledged this as an issue.

"Muller acknowledged the implications of opening the border to Australia, including the fact that it does not have an elimination strategy like New Zealand, and that it still has more than 400 active cases of COVID-19. "

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/06/todd-muller-doubts-trans-tasman-bubble-would-be-in-place-by-now-if-he-was-prime-minister.html

Handle9

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#2501785 10-Jun-2020 04:53

mattwnz:
Handle9:

NZ is Australias second largest tourist market. The two countries are hugely important to each other, more so to NZ due to our relatively small market.

There is a huge amount of business being done Trans Tasman. Most larger organisations have the regional HQ in Australia with NZ offices reporting to them. Travel is the grease that keeps the wheels of the NZ economy turning.

Well the ball is clearly in Australia's court. They need to have a clear elimination policy to eliminate the virus from their shores. Even Todd Muller , the opposition leader has acknowledged this as an issue.

"Muller acknowledged the implications of opening the border to Australia, including the fact that it does not have an elimination strategy like New Zealand, and that it still has more than 400 active cases of COVID-19. "

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/06/todd-muller-doubts-trans-tasman-bubble-would-be-in-place-by-now-if-he-was-prime-minister.html

I doubt it will solely be up to Australia.

The rest of the world has decided Covid will be managed, not eliminated. Sooner or later New Zealand will reopen to the world.

The economy will dictate this. The timing will be interesting, business is already clamouring for it in code. If the economy falls apart it will likely be required by public opinion, as it has in other countries.

Fred99

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#2501815 10-Jun-2020 08:25

Handle9:

I doubt it will solely be up to Australia.

The rest of the world has decided Covid will be managed, not eliminated. Sooner or later New Zealand will reopen to the world.

The economy will dictate this. The timing will be interesting, business is already clamouring for it in code. If the economy falls apart it will likely be required by public opinion, as it has in other countries.

Much of the rest of the world seriously stuffed up - and think they now have no choice but to try to manage it.

There's a big difference between living in a country where it's inevitable that you'll eventually get C19, and in a place where it's extremely unlikely and there's time to wait until a vaccine/treatment. "Eventually" may be a long time.

There's no way NZ (or Aus) should open up the borders to travel from infected regions. That's a conscious choice to sacrifice ~1% of the population for the hope of some money that isn't going to put things back the way they were.

NZ also needs to re-assess dependence on tourism. It's a low paid industry by average - and fickle - governments should not invest in it. Thankfully we're not totally dependent on it.

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#2501824 10-Jun-2020 08:57

neb:
Batman:

well it turns out WHO supports bat eating and rhinoceros killing (indirectly)?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2020/05/04/did-the-whos-endorsement-of-tcm-contribute-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/#3ff9cce11c04

You have to go through multiple levels of redirection to get to the original story, and like Chinese whispers it changes a bit on each jump. What the WHO did was recognise TCM, not endorse it. In rural China with no access to evidence-based/Western/whatever medicine, the alternative is TCM. So several hundred million people (figure freely pulled out of thin air) rely on TCM, and what the WHO did was recognise this fact. After about four or five levels of retelling that's turned into "WHO endorses eating baby fur seals" or whatever.

Xi "believes in" TCM. If you go down the rabbit hole, then eating wild meat carries risks, farming meat carries risks. Given that it's not known for sure how C-19 made its way to humans and that the other "expected" pandemic which could have been just as bad or worse - influenza - is harboured by and jumps species between poultry, pigs, and humans. There are some huge risks in farming and living in close proximity to animals. AFAIK WHO haven't "endorsed" TCM - they've removed reference to it as something that doesn't work. Anyway, if you go to the local pharmacist or supermarket "health" aisle, the shelves are stocked with all kinds of wild and wonderful things - vitamins and minerals, herbal extracts, animal extracts - most of which isn't proven to have any therapeutic benefit at all - but it's a huge industry - and many people "believe in it" just as strongly as someone in China may believe in TCM.

DS248

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#2502114 10-Jun-2020 10:51

Recent study published in Nature re effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8

(Unedited manuscript of article accepted for publication. Accelerated article review)

Widely publicised but in case anyone has not seen it.

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#2502124 10-Jun-2020 10:57

ockel:

Australia is our biggest tourist group. https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/

And the biggest months that Australians come to NZ for a holiday are December and January, not exactly ski season. https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/markets/australia/

Yes but aren't the numbers similar in both directions cancelling each other out?

It could just transfer potential spending money to flights & airport taxes.

tdgeek

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#2502129 10-Jun-2020 11:17

On2or3wheels:

ockel:

Australia is our biggest tourist group. https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/

And the biggest months that Australians come to NZ for a holiday are December and January, not exactly ski season. https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/markets/australia/

Yes but aren't the numbers similar in both directions cancelling each other out?

It could just transfer potential spending money to flights & airport taxes.

That was my feeling. If I spent $4k on a NZ trip as I cant go to AUS thats into our economy and tourism operators/supporting retail. If I spent that in AUS it drops our balance of payments and no money into our economy. Same applies to the OZ people who are stuck there. If however, we all flew to the other country, while it won't fully offset, a lot of it would seem to if travel was 1:1

If the AUS tourist to NZ volume exceeded the Kiwi's going to AUS we get a benefit, buit isnt it just a net benefit?

Rikkitic

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#2502139 10-Jun-2020 11:22

Isn't the point that Ozzies and other foreigners spend more money than Kiwis would on the same activities?

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

wellygary

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#2502140 10-Jun-2020 11:23

mattwnz:

Well the ball is clearly in Australia's court. They need to have a clear elimination policy to eliminate the virus from their shores. Even Todd Muller , the opposition leader has acknowledged this as an issue.

"Muller acknowledged the implications of opening the border to Australia, including the fact that it does not have an elimination strategy like New Zealand, and that it still has more than 400 active cases of COVID-19. "

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/06/todd-muller-doubts-trans-tasman-bubble-would-be-in-place-by-now-if-he-was-prime-minister.html

Australia have a de-facto elimination policy, - The closed border being the biggest part of it, - if you trace and track the remaining cases within each state you eventually get to a point where you have all sources of COVID contained.

VIC is down to 64 Active, with 0 days for new cases becoming more common.

NSW is 335 active and also trending down... again they are having more and more days of 0 new cases, or when they do find cases they are connected to known clusters or travel

In 2-3 weeks, it will be very clear. if 0 is possible for these jurisdictions....

NZ started out with a suppress goal too, it only changed to eliminate when it became clear that elimination was possible....

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