2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2539456 12-Aug-2020 15:02

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Im picking 50 cases, but as from today theoretically it cannot spread. Lets see what happens

Time will tell, but we may not know for up to 2 weeks now due to the incubation period. But it does largely depend on when the leak occurred, as to how many potential cases there could be, and how much it has spread. Sounds like there is at least three more cases at a workplace, which is fine, as they can be traced back. Guessing tomorrows testing numbers will dwarf yesterdays number of under 2000.

Yep, Johnny give it to 3 they give it to 3, but with the panic up there now, most people will take care, that will stop the spread. We will see soon how far its gone, and tracing will grab the others, and that wont be perfect but at leats they can mop up the dregs later

wellygary

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#2539469 12-Aug-2020 15:21

tdgeek:

Im picking 50 cases, but as from today theoretically it cannot spread. Lets see what happens

That's certainly the likely ball park, it will be interesting to see how long it takes to find the chain back to the (likely) breach at MIQ or the border .... - which I suspect will likely be an asymptomatic case...

The question will be how long it takes to stop finding new cases. ( and that is certainly going to be longer than 3 days...)

mattwnz

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#2539472 12-Aug-2020 15:30

Apparently they are looking into the possibility that this virus transmission was actually brought in through the cold store from international freight. That would be intriguing if that was the case. Potentially it could be both good and bad if testing shows this to be the case. Good in that we have identified case number zero and the source, and why potentially up to 4 staff may have got the virus. But not good when it comes to importing frozen things things from overseas.

tdgeek

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#2539473 12-Aug-2020 15:31

wellygary:

tdgeek:

Im picking 50 cases, but as from today theoretically it cannot spread. Lets see what happens

That's certainly the likely ball park, it will be interesting to see how long it takes to find the chain back to the (likely) breach at MIQ.... - which I suspect will likely be an asymptomatic case...

The question will be how long it takes to stop finding new cases. ( and that is certainly going to be longer than 3 days...)

Yep. The 3 days going by the media seems to be a locked in period. Clickbait I guess. Its a period they want to see how far its got. They cant allocate 14 days if it turned out these 4 are the only cases when they first appeared. After 3 days we will know more

tdgeek

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#2539474 12-Aug-2020 15:33

mattwnz:

Apparently they are looking into the possibility that this virus transmission was actually brought in through the cold store from international freight. That would be intriguing if that was the case. Potentially it could be both good and bad if testing shows this to be the case. Good in that we have identified case number zero and the source, and why potentially up to 4 staff may have got the virus. But not good when it comes to importing frozen things things from overseas.

Glass half full, if it was via the frozen goods, then MIQ is ok, found a loose end to tidy up, and time to assess the other goods import locations.

wellygary

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#2539475 12-Aug-2020 15:34

mattwnz:

Apparently they are looking into the possibility that this virus transmission was actually brought in through the cold store from international freight. That would be intriguing if that was the case. Potentially it could be both good and bad if testing shows this to be the case. Good in that we have identified case number zero and the source, and potently why potentially up to 4 staff may have got the virus. But not good when it comes to importing frozen things things from overseas.

Yeah i'm reading that too, but I would have thought air-freight was a low risk... more likely an interaction between cold store staff and someone transporting the goods rom airside....who may have had an interaction with international aircrew...?

Do cargo jets bring their own loadmasters? or do they let host airport staff manage the loading....

mattwnz

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#2539476 12-Aug-2020 15:34

tdgeek:

wellygary:

That's certainly the likely ball park, it will be interesting to see how long it takes to find the chain back to the (likely) breach at MIQ.... - which I suspect will likely be an asymptomatic case...

The question will be how long it takes to stop finding new cases. ( and that is certainly going to be longer than 3 days...)

Yep. The 3 days going by the media seems to be a locked in period. Clickbait I guess. Its a period they want to see how far its got. They cant allocate 14 days if it turned out these 4 are the only cases when they first appeared. After 3 days we will know more

Potentially it is up to 7, based on new possible cases at the workplace. But unless they can trace it to a source, they say they can't say what they will do . Although they obviously would be following a flowchart of the different permutations. But they have also said they will let people know before the 3 days is up, as they will let people know ongoing details as they learn more.

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mattwnz

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#2539477 12-Aug-2020 15:39

wellygary:

Yeah i'm reading that too, but I would have through air-freight was a low risk... more likely an interaction between cold store staff and someone transporting the goods rom airside....who may have had an interaction with international aircrew...?

Do cargo jets bring their own loadmasters? or do they let host airport staff manage the loading....

I understand China blamed an outbreak on imported frozen food themselves. Considering the virus can survive being frozen, I would have thought it was certainly a possibility. But testing the coldstore and products maybe like looking for a needle in a haystack, depending on how large it is, and what the products are etc. It could be bit of a nightmare situation for them to work out if that is the source, or it is someone else. .

surfisup1000

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#2539483 12-Aug-2020 15:44

My son was luging in rotorua over the weekend. As were a bunch of Tauranga resident sports teams - who took the opportunity of visiting rotorua to have a crack at the luge.

But government has not divulged where exactly the covid infectees visited. Not sure why, shouldn't be too hard to ask.

Rotorua is probably a not a great scenario... people travel there from other areas to visit, especially in the weekends.

The virus has been circulating around Auckland for a week or two now, my money is on a nationwide level 4 lockdown. People have been too complacent and life was basically normal the last several months. This is the super spreader heaven!

Hoping I'm wrong though.

mattwnz

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#2539487 12-Aug-2020 15:54

surfisup1000:

My son was luging in rotorua over the weekend. As were a bunch of Tauranga resident sports teams - who took the opportunity of visiting rotorua to have a crack at the luge.

But government has not divulged where exactly the covid infectees visited. Not sure why, shouldn't be too hard to ask.

Rotorua is probably a not a great scenario... people travel there from other areas to visit, especially in the weekends.

The virus has been circulating around Auckland for a week or two now, my money is on a nationwide level 4 lockdown. People have been too complacent and life was basically normal the last several months. This is the super spreader heaven!

Hoping I'm wrong though.

Yes, due to the way NZ has been operating without any need to socially distance or wear masks, the virus R0 rate would be near it's highest rate. This is why testing, and picking up CT cases of the virus as soon as they occurred was so important, as NZ was very vulnerable in level 1. We wanted to make sure we picked up case number zero, but the problem is that isn't what has occurred, unless the source of the virus is a product at the coldstore.

mattwnz

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#2539488 12-Aug-2020 15:57

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

Apparently they are looking into the possibility that this virus transmission was actually brought in through the cold store from international freight. That would be intriguing if that was the case. Potentially it could be both good and bad if testing shows this to be the case. Good in that we have identified case number zero and the source, and why potentially up to 4 staff may have got the virus. But not good when it comes to importing frozen things things from overseas.

Glass half full, if it was via the frozen goods, then MIQ is ok, found a loose end to tidy up, and time to assess the other goods import locations.

It would be good news, but it could be like finding a needle in a haystack to find the product responsible. They also probably need to look into how likely this is the case, when it maybe more likely that human error has occurred somewhere at the border, as happened in Oz .

wellygary

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#2539500 12-Aug-2020 16:04

mattwnz:

It would be good news, but it could be like finding a needle in a haystack to find the product responsible. They also probably need to look into how likely this is the case, when it maybe more likely that human error has occurred somewhere at the border, as happened in Oz .

The possible 0-case had been off work for 9 days, so the chance of finding more surface virus now could be very remote...

Fred99

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#2539507 12-Aug-2020 16:10

mattwnz:

wellygary:

Yeah i'm reading that too, but I would have through air-freight was a low risk... more likely an interaction between cold store staff and someone transporting the goods rom airside....who may have had an interaction with international aircrew...?

Do cargo jets bring their own loadmasters? or do they let host airport staff manage the loading....

I understand China blamed an outbreak on imported frozen food themselves. Considering the virus can survive being frozen, I would have thought it was certainly a possibility. But testing the coldstore and products maybe like looking for a needle in a haystack, depending on how large it is, and what the products are etc. It could be bit of a nightmare situation for them to work out if that is the source, or it is someone else. .

Some people in China initially blamed an outbreak on imported chilled salmon, China's National Health Commission did investigate - and ruled it out. (IIRC C-19 RNA was found on a cutting board - but not on any salmon.

Sure it's possible, but if it came in on some frozen items then finding what it is or was seems like a pretty hard task - you can't swab everything to test it.

antonknee

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#2539509 12-Aug-2020 16:13

Bloomfield saying no close contacts from the Rotorua visit - however family visited a number of locations. Businesses being confirmed and notified first, before further details are made public. Family evidently visited Skyline (gondola and luge) and Heritage Farm apparently. For now, Rotorua staying at alert level 2.

Fred99

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#2539517 12-Aug-2020 16:21

surfisup1000:

But government has not divulged where exactly the covid infectees visited. Not sure why, shouldn't be too hard to ask.

This through from Ashley Bloomfield / press conference:

On the case in the community that travelled to Rotorua at the weekend. Bloomfield said they're confident the visit of the four family members - two who tested positive - hasn't resulted in any close contacts.

They're still taking a precautionary approach, as these people visited a number of locations, including eateries. They don't have specifics around what businesses and when.

They stayed at the Wai Ora Lakeside Hotel, and visited the Gondola

No idea why they don't have the specifics yet - but could be something like "we had a coffee in a cafe downtown - can't remember what it was called". Maybe eftpos or CC records would show.

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