2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2542739 17-Aug-2020 11:36

Zepanda66:

Do we know if the MoH ever looked further into rapid testing like their doing overseas? I saw the FDA just gave emergency approval to a rapid saliva test from Yale. Or is it not worth it given the potential for inaccurate results?

https://news.yale.edu/2020/08/15/yales-rapid-covid-19-saliva-test-receives-fda-emergency-use-authorization

I recall reading that Emirates were doing fast tests before allowing passengers to board aircraft. 10 minute results.

frankv

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#2542794 17-Aug-2020 12:00

Handle9:

frankv:
Let's not forget that the economy is a theoretical thing based on what's happened in the past. As are estimates of whether it's doing well or not. Mostly the models are good and estimates are accurate, although sometimes economists disagree. Over time, different economists (e.g. Keynes, Friedman) have come up different models to describe economic activity, with one superseding another. We're in an unprecedented situation, so historical models are unlikely to be accurate, and predictions of e.g. doom if we lock down at L4 for another 6 weeks may or may not be accurate. For example, I don't believe anyone predicted the mini-boom of the NZ economy after the first lockdown.

You are confusing the economy with economics.

The economy is empirically measurable, economics is an academic construct to understand the economy.

Hmmmmm, yes, I think you're right. The economy is like the weather; we all live in it and can empirically measure any number of aspects. But economics, like meteorology, is where the value lies. Measurement is worthless unless it leads to an understanding and hopefully even reliable prediction. Predicting hurricane paths is pretty accurate nowadays, but predicting what a once-in-a-century hurricane will do is difficult, because we only get to actually measure it for real once in a century. Likewise predicting the effect of a pandemic on our NZ economy. It's going to be bad for some sectors, but how bad and which sectors is a bit up in the air.

frankv

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#2542796 17-Aug-2020 12:07

Zepanda66:

Do we know if the MoH ever looked further into rapid testing like their doing overseas? I saw the FDA just gave emergency approval to a rapid saliva test from Yale. Or is it not worth it given the potential for inaccurate results?

https://news.yale.edu/2020/08/15/yales-rapid-covid-19-saliva-test-receives-fda-emergency-use-authorization

Not sure why the headline says "rapid". There's nothing in the article that says it's any quicker to get results that the traditional nasopharyngeal swab. The article does claim that it is equally sensitive, which isn't great.

wellygary

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#2542799 17-Aug-2020 12:11

Zepanda66:

Do we know if the MoH ever looked further into rapid testing like their doing overseas? I saw the FDA just gave emergency approval to a rapid saliva test from Yale. Or is it not worth it given the potential for inaccurate results?

MoH has pretty widespread 1hr rapid testing capacity in NZ, it was used with the initial family members in the Auckland Cluster

"From today, eight regional labs will be receiving much needed capability to rapidly test for COVID-19 and influenza, providing crucial and timely support to regional hospitals. Rapid COVID-19 tests take just under an hour"
https://www.nzhit.nz/news/rapid-covid-19-testing-now-in-regional-laboratories-greater-support-for-regional-hospitals

'This has included household contacts of the case who received a rapid test this evening. Three of these tests have also come back positive and three are negative." https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/4-cases-covid-19-unknown-source

Dial111

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#2542801 17-Aug-2020 12:15

I got tested about an hour ago here in Christchurch due to being totally smashed by the cold this weekend and I have to say that the test is not bad at all, all I experienced was a tickling sensation and very mild discomfort, nothing to worry about.

I’d advise anyone with symptoms to get tested. It really isn’t bad at all.

Fred99

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#2542803 17-Aug-2020 12:16

Zepanda66:

Do we know if the MoH ever looked further into rapid testing like their doing overseas? I saw the FDA just gave emergency approval to a rapid saliva test from Yale. Or is it not worth it given the potential for inaccurate results?

https://news.yale.edu/2020/08/15/yales-rapid-covid-19-saliva-test-receives-fda-emergency-use-authorization

I expect they're well aware of this.

From FDA:

This is the fifth test that the FDA has authorized that uses saliva as a sample for testing. Testing saliva eliminates the need for nasopharyngeal swabs, which have also been prone to shortages, and alleviates the patient discomfort associated with these swabs. Since the saliva sample is self-collected under the observation of a healthcare professional, it could also potentially lower the risk posed to healthcare workers responsible for sample collection. While FDA has seen variable performance in tests using saliva, Yale School of Public Health submitted data with its EUA request from which the FDA determined that Yale’s test meets the criteria for emergency authorization when used to test saliva samples for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection.

The press releases seem to be focused on solving the problem in the US with test capacity, reading other reports about the US, people are waiting a ridiculous length of time for results - so long that it's a waste of time and effort testing them - they'll either be recovered or very sick by the time the results are returned.

I guess that unless the tests are as accurate as the nasal swabs, then if they were made available there's a risk that overall testing quality may fall, as people would no doubt prefer a less invasive sampling method, and they'd probably insist on having the less invasive test. Yet on the other hand, some people are reluctant or refusing to have the swab test, so more tests with lower accuracy may still be preferable to fewer tests with higher accuracy.

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Oblivian

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#2542835 17-Aug-2020 13:06

With the way this thing transmits. And recycling infection by asymptomatic within family and workplace and those waiting a test.
I'm not convinced the US or S.a has a way out. Even with it's boasting of numbers. They defy cutting it's head off. Which seems to be the only burnout method.

No matter if you had enough kits and did the whole population twice over (which looks like essentially what is happening) the time it's taking to do that, will be like the Sydney harbour bridge.

Paint 1 end to the other, takes so long you go back and start again.

GV27

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#2542860 17-Aug-2020 13:35

Nine new case today, new places of interest include Botany Mall, a guinea pig show and another school.

Cluster size now at 58.

Fred99

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#2542863 17-Aug-2020 13:42

Oblivian: With the way this thing transmits. And recycling infection by asymptomatic within family and workplace and those waiting a test.
I'm not convinced the US or S.a has a way out. Even with it's boasting of numbers. They defy cutting it's head off. Which seems to be the only burnout method.

No matter if you had enough kits and did the whole population twice over (which looks like essentially what is happening) the time it's taking to do that, will be like the Sydney harbour bridge.

Paint 1 end to the other, takes so long you go back and start again.

The administration has given up.

Trump's appointed a partisan sycophant with no infectious disease expertise to counter Fauci and Birx.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/08/12/who-is-dr-scott-atlas-trumps-new-covid-health-adviser-seen-as-counter-to-fauci-and-birx/#124ddd620a4f

Fauci and Birx have been sidelined.

Atlas echoed an argument often made by Trump that children "have no risk for serious illness" and "they're not significant spreaders," adding, "There should never be and there is no goal to stop college students from getting an infection they have no problem with.

Which means encouraging them to get infected, sure they're at relatively lower risk, except for the ones who aren't. But anyway, if this is done then they'll spread it through the community, it's be chaos at election time, and if the plan to prevent mail-in voting works then Trump possibly steals an election.

Fred99

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#2542866 17-Aug-2020 13:50

GV27:

Nine new case today, new places of interest include Botany Mall, a guinea pig show and another school.

Cluster size now at 58.

5 now hospitalised (none in ICU). 4 cases "under investigation" (not yet traced) but expected to be linked back to the cluster.

Unless we're missing many CT cases - hopefully unlikely, then the lockdown seems to be working as well as expected / hoped for - new case numbers generally steady or trending down. Test numbers up again (>26,000 yesterday).

Fingers crossed.

Hemi88

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#2542871 17-Aug-2020 13:55

With the amount of testing being done and hot finding any random cases it’s looking good 🤞

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wellygary

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#2542891 17-Aug-2020 14:10

Hemi88: With the amount of testing being done and hot finding any random cases it’s looking good 🤞

Yeah, although some more transparency would be helpful... the regional testing stats only go up to the 10th of August..... ( pre the discovery of this outbreak)

We really need to see what the testing numbers look like up and down the country to get a real handle on whether there has been any more spread....

nzkiwiman

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#2542897 17-Aug-2020 14:16

Slightly off topic, but the last page of this topic is page 907 according to the forum, but once you are here it is 906.

I assume due to the deleted (hidden?) conversation from those since removed?

Fred99

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#2542926 17-Aug-2020 14:43

nzkiwiman:

Slightly off topic, but the last page of this topic is page 907 according to the forum, but once you are here it is 906.

I assume due to the deleted (hidden?) conversation from those since removed?

Showing 906 here - but maybe someone posted something and deleted it themselves - unless a mod deleted a post.

freitasm

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#2542927 17-Aug-2020 14:47

No posts deleted from our side AFAIK so someone posted and removed. Page numbers are adjusted automatically but sometimes need a "kick".

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