2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2544432 19-Aug-2020 13:35

OK, the PM Jacinda Ardern has had enough, and is now wanting to draw a line under the border issues,

"A small team to support health and stand up the testing strategy at the border and isolation facilities will be set up.- Heather Simpson will lead this team."

+ an extra 500 NZDF staff, and kicking out all the security contractors, all security staff will now be employed directly by MBIE

[Mod edit (MF): full name]

Technofreak

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#2544438 19-Aug-2020 13:42

wellygary:

OK, Jacinda has had enough, and is now wanting to draw a line under the border issues,

"A small team to support health and stand up the testing strategy at the border and isolation facilities will be set up.- Heather Simpson will lead this team."

+ an extra 500 NZDF staff, and kicking out all the security contractors, all security staff will now be employed directly by MBIE

The NZDF should have been used right from the start. This is all a bit after the fact.

Also I think it's pretty obvious the wrong questions have been asked by the various Ministers involved about how the quarantine has been managed. If they had asked the right questions there would have been no surprises about the lack of proper testing of quarantine staff.

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Fred99

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#2544439 19-Aug-2020 13:43

Good. I'm reading the blog / transcript, pretty happy to read details like using serology tests to try to fill in "holes" in contact tracing, paying remaining security staff "living wage" to mimimise chance of them working on jobs other than at quarantine etc. And perhaps most of all the comment that "testing alone isn't enough".

Fingers crossed.

Technofreak

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#2544441 19-Aug-2020 13:45

Scott3:

Remember at the end of the last lockdown when we were cerebrating no active cases in NZ at all. Then we started testing those in managed isolation, finding that roughly one case a day was getting imported into NZ.

While you may well be right, about other governments not being able to do better, but NZ is in a different situation to other countries (including having somewhat competent governance), so we don't need to follow other countries leads.

Regarding it coming in being inevitable, we could completly close our boarders and have the military paroling to shoot down rouge aircraft, and boats who breach. Of course not having any imports (and having five times as much food as we can consume), along with abandoning New Zealanders currently out of the country would we disproportionate for the severity of covid-19 - Perhaps a movie level virus could justify this...

Given the above, we accept risk at the border, in return for the rewards of having trade and limited travel. Essentially an odds game. I think we should be stacking the odds in our favor as much as is reasonable.

I'm pleased you said somewhat competence governance"". Overall I think we have been very lucky and so far have dodged a few bullets and governance has been a small part of our success.

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Fred99

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#2544450 19-Aug-2020 13:55

Scott3:

to shoot down rouge aircraft

A job for Snoopy.

Technofreak

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#2544454 19-Aug-2020 13:59

dafman:

Both of above are sub optimal to the simple alternative of taking five minutes of an employee's time to put the QR codes in the buses - just like every other business is required to do.

And in relation to your first point, yes I am so worried - there's a global pandemic sweeping the globe that's killed near a million people.

Yes it has, but the deaths have to be viewed in context. I heard an expert on RNZ this morning saying how initially the WHO expected the pandemic to have a 3% death rate when in fact it has only had a 0.2% death rate which is double the death rate (0.1%) for the annual flu we generally experience. No one raises an eyebrow to the annual death rate due to the flu.

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ezbee

2405 posts

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#2544459 19-Aug-2020 14:06

Good news on cases considering the scale of testing all entry points including ports are getting catch up.
I know truckies are miffed re testing but I understand that with coolstores/meat processor in USA that was a possible vector.
So great progress.
No matter what Government operational issues are unfortunately part of learning curve.
At least we did not have educational institutes looking after 1000's students, and 1000's tourists doing their own thing under lodge supervision.
What could have gone wrong.

Covid staff not even on living wage apparently, minimum wage shift workers no danger bonus no wonder.
Not like billions of dollars of economic damage could result ....
Dont like it , need PPE, I have 1000's more looking for your job
'tap' seeing you bought it up someone else is taking your shift, goodbye.
Gotta love that Gig economy

Surprised it did not cross the minds of the public servants issuing the contracts to include a minimum level of pay etc.
As far as card access surveillance, well someone in hotel biz might have insight on what can go on.
Guests with drug dependency or other special needs ?
Afterall if person occupying the room opens the door then there is no card access.

HiDeHo, my Covid hotel is based off HiDeHi. Maximum Fun , no responsibility
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hi-de-Hi!_episodes

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Fred99

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#2544461 19-Aug-2020 14:08

Technofreak:

Yes it has, but the deaths have to be viewed in context. I heard an expert on RNZ this morning saying how initially the WHO expected the pandemic to have a 3% death rate when in fact it has only had a 0.2% death rate which is double the death rate (0.1%) for the annual flu we generally experience. No one raises an eyebrow to the annual death rate due to the flu.

Those figures are highly suspect / not correct.

Case fatality rate in NZ has been 1.33%. To query that validity, you'd have to argue that there had been a vast number of undiagnosed cases (as there may be in other countries - but extremely unlikely / impossible was the case in NZ). I think you'll find similar CFR in Aus. In Aus and NZ "case" fatality rate and "infection" fatality rate will match very closely.

I believe that in boroughs of New York where Covid was worst, the "population" fatality rate was 0.2% - and serology tests indicated only ~15% had been infected. That also comes back to the ~1% true infection fatality rate.

mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2544481 19-Aug-2020 14:46

wellygary:

+ an extra 500 NZDF staff, and kicking out all the security contractors, all security staff will now be employed directly by MBIE

I am surprised they hired private contractors anyway, and this wasn't done initially. It makes sense to use the NZDF. They have the strict adherence to processes that we need. Definitely right decision.
Maybe they are preempting the media grilling them, based on what has happened in Victoria, where where there is an investigation into this.

1101

3122 posts

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#2544482 19-Aug-2020 14:47

% death rates dont tell the full story . Just look at what happened overseas

When New York and some countries have so many Covid deaths in such a short timeframe that they have no where to put the bodies
Literally piling them up, digging mass graves, putting shipping containers outside hospitals to hold the corpes, needing the army to transport the dead away in
a convoy of trucks......

When hospital staff start dying of Covid , then its a bigger issue than just that low death rate %
When hosiptals are overun with covid patients , then its not just %'s

The % death rate would be alot higher if we simply let covid run its course & did nothing .
We also dont know how it affects different races , some races may have a higher % . There was even a study showing balding men had a higher risk of death from covid.
Its not over, so we dont know didly squat yet .

mattwnz

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#2544483 19-Aug-2020 14:48

Technofreak:

Yes it has, but the deaths have to be viewed in context. I heard an expert on RNZ this morning saying how initially the WHO expected the pandemic to have a 3% death rate when in fact it has only had a 0.2% death rate which is double the death rate (0.1%) for the annual flu we generally experience. No one raises an eyebrow to the annual death rate due to the flu.

Please can you provide a source for this information, eg WHOs numbers. Also who was the expert?

vexxxboy

4243 posts

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#2544542 19-Aug-2020 15:22

Fred99:

Technofreak:

Yes it has, but the deaths have to be viewed in context. I heard an expert on RNZ this morning saying how initially the WHO expected the pandemic to have a 3% death rate when in fact it has only had a 0.2% death rate which is double the death rate (0.1%) for the annual flu we generally experience. No one raises an eyebrow to the annual death rate due to the flu.

Those figures are highly suspect / not correct.

Case fatality rate in NZ has been 1.33%. To query that validity, you'd have to argue that there had been a vast number of undiagnosed cases (as there may be in other countries - but extremely unlikely / impossible was the case in NZ). I think you'll find similar CFR in Aus. In Aus and NZ "case" fatality rate and "infection" fatality rate will match very closely.

I believe that in boroughs of New York where Covid was worst, the "population" fatality rate was 0.2% - and serology tests indicated only ~15% had been infected. That also comes back to the ~1% true infection fatality rate.

our deaths were mainly in that dementia ward where the patients werent even put into hospital and were only getting palliative care, most had DNR's. In most countries only people who died in hospital were counted. If we did what other countries did our death rate would have been well under 1%

Common sense is not as common as you think.

FineWine

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#2544544 19-Aug-2020 15:27

kingdragonfly: Sorry about the length of this excerpt. I found it well written, and hard to compact.

New York Times: A Warning for the United States From the Author of ‘The Great Influenza’

If we don’t get the virus under control, the devastation will get worse.

“Humankind cannot bear very much reality.”

So said the poet T.S. Eliot. It’s an apt explanation for the White House’s failure to respond adequately to the pandemic that has swept across America and the rest of the world............

It brings to mind the old adage “that when America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold”.

As you can see from the article the author of “The Art of the Deal” has been America’s greatest economic failure. Would America have been better off if there had been a different leader and therefore would the world be better off too ?

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

dafman

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#2544547 19-Aug-2020 15:36

mattwnz:

Technofreak:

Yes it has, but the deaths have to be viewed in context. I heard an expert on RNZ this morning saying how initially the WHO expected the pandemic to have a 3% death rate when in fact it has only had a 0.2% death rate which is double the death rate (0.1%) for the annual flu we generally experience. No one raises an eyebrow to the annual death rate due to the flu.

Please can you provide a source for this information, eg WHOs numbers. Also who was the expert?

I'll leave Techofreak to update on the expert. This is current advice from the World Health Organisation:

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

DS248

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#2544594 19-Aug-2020 15:51

Amazing how similar the NSW and Auckland hotel security guard cases are; US origin, no apparent direct contact, notified same day, ... Do have to wonder about the hotel air conditioning, as Mattwnz suggested?

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/sydney-marriott-hotel-quarantine-covid-case-has-no-obvious-link-c-1250054

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